For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American Phosphorus acid market faced a downward trend primarily driven by weak demand and high inventory levels. Despite strong production in major exporting countries like China, the market remained oversupplied, exerting downward pressure on prices. The demand from key sectors such as the agrochemical industry and water treatment sector remained subdued, especially with the agricultural market entering its off-season.
This slowdown in demand coincided with a decline in feedstock prices, particularly Phosphorus trichloride, which further reduced production costs and exacerbated the bearish market sentiment. Although there was an uptick in freight charges, the increase was insufficient to offset the prevailing market conditions.
The demand for glyphosate, a key downstream product, remained limited as North American buyers took advantage of lower prices from China. As the off-season for fertilizer procurement continued, stakeholders adopted a cautious stance, with many waiting for favourable pricing adjustments in the upcoming months. Overall, Q4 2024 presented a weak market outlook, with limited buying activity, high inventories, and a wait-and-see approach prevailing across the region.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Phosphorus acid market in China experienced a downward trend, primarily driven by weak demand from the agrochemical sector and the off-season for agricultural activities. Despite steady production levels and no major disruptions in supply, the demand for Phosphorus acid decreased significantly during the quarter due to the seasonal slowdown in fertilizer procurement. The price decline was further exacerbated by reduced demand for key downstream products such as glyphosate. In addition, the market was affected by lower feedstock prices, particularly Phosphorus trichloride, which helped reduce production costs, contributing to the overall bearish market sentiment. Exports of Phosphorus acid increased as low prices made it more attractive to international buyers, especially in North America. The demand from China’s domestic market, however, remained subdued, with a wait-and-see attitude prevailing among buyers in anticipation of better prices or market conditions. Despite this, China’s factory activity surged in November, boosting optimism among manufacturers, and prompting some increase in production. However, the overall market sentiment remained weak, with producers adjusting strategies to cope with the seasonality of the agricultural sector’s demand. The market saw limited procurement activities, leading to high inventory levels and pushing prices lower. Although as compared to the previous quarter, the quarter-on-quarter price change increased that is 2.4% due to significant rise in prices in the last month of Q3 but overall, the sentiment remained bearish during Q4.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the Phosphorus acid market in Germany experienced a consistent downward trend, largely due to weak demand from key sectors such as agrochemicals and water treatment. Economic conditions in the country continued to decline, affecting the overall market sentiment. The agrochemical sector struggled, with decreased demand for fertilizers and pesticides, further exacerbating the bearish market conditions. Additionally, high energy costs impacted industrial production and the demand for water treatment chemicals. While manufacturing costs for Phosphorus acid remained lower due to declining feedstock prices, the high inventory levels and the subdued procurement activity from the agricultural sector kept prices under pressure. Germany's industrial production also contracted in November, compounding the sluggish economic environment. As the agricultural off-season began, fertilizer procurement activities slowed, leading to a reduction in the demand for Phosphorus acid. Furthermore, severe weather disruptions, including windstorms and heavy rainfall, dampened market activity, further contributing to the decline in demand. Despite steady production in major exporting countries like China, the lack of immediate demand from the European market continued to keep prices low, leading to a bearish outlook for the sector.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 witnessed a notable increase in Phosphorus Acid prices in the North American region, with the USA experiencing the most significant price changes. This upsurge can be attributed to various factors, including heightened demand from downstream sectors, logistical challenges, and increased production costs due to rising feedstock prices.
Despite a seasonal decline in demand from the agrochemical sector, the overall market trend remained bullish. Plant shutdowns and disruptions, such as those caused by the hurricane season, further impacted supply chains and contributed to the price hike. In the USA specifically, the market displayed a positive correlation between price changes and demand dynamics, with prices steadily rising throughout the quarter.
The quarter-ending price of USD 1960/MT for Phosphorus Acid 99% CFR Texas in the USA marked a 5% increase from the first half of the quarter, reflecting the overall increasing pricing environment in the region.
APAC
In Q3 2024, the APAC region witnessed a surge in Phosphorus Acid prices driven by robust demand and supply dynamics. The market experienced significant price fluctuations influenced by various factors such as supply chain disruptions, increased seasonal demand, and fluctuating raw material costs. The overall trend in the region indicated a positive correlation between demand from key industries and price increments. In China, the market saw the most pronounced price changes, reflecting a bearish sentiment due to moderate to low demand levels. Seasonal patterns played a crucial role in price movements, with the quarter recording a 9% price increase between the first and second half. Despite a -4% change from the previous quarter in 2024, the year-on-year comparison highlighted a notable positive shift. Plant shutdowns, such as [add names if available], added to the market dynamics, contributing to the overall price trends. As the quarter concluded, the price for Phosphorus Acid stood at USD 1700/MT FOB Shanghai, signaling a consistently increasing pricing environment in the region.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the European region experienced a period of escalating prices for Phosphorus Acid, with Germany being at the forefront of significant price changes. Various factors contributed to this upward trend, including stable feedstock prices, increased demand from downstream industries, and a bullish market sentiment. The market saw moderate to low demand, with a focus on the agricultural sector and other industries driving the price surge. Additionally, the bearish market situation and moderate supply levels further fueled the price increments. Plant shutdowns in certain regions also caused disruptions, impacting supply chains and prices. In Germany specifically, the pricing environment remained positive, with prices increasing steadily throughout the quarter. The overall trend reflected stability, with a slight decline recorded from the previous quarter. The correlation between price changes in the first and second half of the quarter indicated a slight rise. As Q3 came to a close, the price of Phosphorus Acid 99% CFR Hamburg in Germany stood at USD 1860/MT, marking a notable increase from the beginning of the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The North American Phosphorus Acid market experienced a downward trend in Q2 2024, influenced by several critical factors. The reduced prices stemmed predominantly from lower-priced imports, particularly from Asian markets, creating an oversupply situation. The fertilizer sector's subdued performance and weakened demand from the textile industry due to falling exports significantly impacted pricing. Furthermore, a decline in demand from the water treatment sector and fluctuations in the food and preservative market exacerbated the price reductions. The overall economic landscape, while showing some signs of recovery, did not counterbalance these adverse factors.
In the USA, where the most pronounced price changes were observed, the market demonstrated a consistent decrease throughout the quarter. The oversupply, driven by high inventory levels, led to muted bidding behavior and lower prices. Seasonality further influenced this trend, as Q2 typically sees lower activity in agricultural sectors, which are major consumers of phosphorus acid. From the previous quarter in 2024, there was a 0.5% decline, indicative of a sustained negative pricing environment.
Moreover, ongoing logistical challenges, particularly at the Port of Baltimore, created additional supply chain disruptions, further skewing the supply-demand balance. By the end of Q2, the price of phosphorus acid 99% CFR Texas in the USA settled at USD 1830/MT, reflecting a negative pricing sentiment throughout the quarter.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the pricing environment for Phosphorus Acid in the APAC region has been predominantly negative, characterized by a consistent downward trend. Various factors have significantly influenced market prices. Primarily, a downturn in both upstream and downstream markets has exerted pressure on prices, despite reductions in raw material costs, such as phosphorus trichloride. Additionally, economic uncertainties and fluctuating market conditions have caused a cautious approach among buyers, particularly in the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) sector. Supply chain disruptions exacerbated by economic and geopolitical factors have compounded these challenges, leading to an oversupply in the market. Focusing on China, the country witnessed the most significant price changes. The overall trend has been bearish, reflecting subdued demand from primary sectors such as textiles and agrochemicals. The quarter concluded with the price of Phosphorus Acid 99% FOB Shanghai at USD 1550/MT, reflecting a significant decline from the previous quarter, recorded at -0.6%. Notably, there were no major plant shutdowns or disruptions reported during this period, indicating that the price decline was primarily demand-driven rather than supply-constrained.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the pricing environment for Phosphorus Acid in Europe has been predominantly positive, characterized by significant price reductions. Specifically, in Germany, the market has experienced the most pronounced price changes. The overall trends indicate a consistent decline in prices throughout the quarter, influenced by factors such as subdued demand from key downstream sectors like agrochemicals and fertilizers. Seasonality has also played a role, with unfavorable weather conditions impacting agricultural productivity and, consequently, demand for Phosphorus Acid. The correlation in price changes reflects a broader economic trend of increasing commodity prices in the region. Compared to the previous quarter, prices have decreased by 2.4% in Q2. The quarter concluded with the price of Phosphorus Acid 99% CFR Hamburg in Germany standing at USD 1790/MT. This persistent downward trend underscores a challenging pricing environment, marked by negative market sentiment and a consistent decrease in demand. Importantly, there were no reported disruptions or plant shutdowns during the quarter, further emphasizing the impact of market dynamics on pricing trends.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the USA, despite mixed sectoral performance, the price of Phosphorus Acid has shown a notable uptrend, reaching 1905 USD/MT CFR-Texas, marking a significant 10.11% increment in Q1 2024 from Q4 2023. This price incline could be attributed to several factors.
While the agriculture sector experienced a downturn, increased demand in the water treatment and pharmaceutical sectors likely contributed to the overall uptick in Phosphorus Acid prices. The water treatment sector's upswing indicates a heightened need for Phosphorus-based compounds to address water quality concerns, driving up demand for Phosphorus Acid. Additionally, the pharmaceutical sector's growth suggests increased utilization of Phosphorus Acid in pharmaceutical synthesis, further bolstering demand.
Interestingly, despite a decline in the polymer sector, which may have typically impacted Phosphorus Acid demand, the overall market dynamics seem to have outweighed this effect. Furthermore, the decline in the price of Phosphorus Trichloride, a key feedstock, might have partially offset any potential price pressures, allowing for a more favorable pricing environment.
APAC
In the APAC region, the price of Phosphorus Acid has experienced an upward trend, reaching 1710 USD/MT FOB-Shanghai, marking an 8.22% increment in Q1 2024 from Q4 2023. This price incline comes amidst a mixed scenario across sectors. While the agriculture sector witnessed a downturn, the water treatment sector saw an increase in demand, possibly due to heightened focus on water quality and sanitation. Similarly, the pharma sector reported growth in China but faced challenges in India, potentially due to regulatory or market factors. Additionally, the polymer sector experienced a decline, suggesting reduced demand for Phosphorus Acid in polymer production processes. Despite sectoral variations, the overall uptrend in price can be attributed to factors such as supply constraints, increased demand from the water treatment and pharmaceutical sectors, and possibly production cost escalations. In the Indian market the demand from the downstream Pharma, Water Treatment sector remained up while Agrochemical sector continued to underperform which has cumulatively influenced Phosphorus Acid demand in the respective region.
Europe
In Europe, despite downturns in key sectors like agriculture, water treatment, pharma, and polymer, the phosphorus acid market exhibits an upward price trend. This unexpected increase in price, reaching 1790 USD/MT CFR-Hamburg, represents a significant 5.29% increment in Q1 2024 compared to Q4 2023. In the feedstock market the price of the Phosphorus Trichloride witnessed a notable fall which has not significantly affected the price of the Phosphorus Acid throughout this quarter. However, the most notable driver behind this trend is the low prices observed from major exporters in the Asian market, particularly China from where the European nations import. This surge may reflect a shift in global supply dynamics, where reduced prices from Chinese exporters are stimulating demand in European markets. The underperformance in the economic activities in the European countries has majorly contributed to the decline Despite the downturn in several sectors, the demand for phosphorus acid appears to remain resilient, potentially fueled by ongoing industrial and agricultural activities.
