For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the Nitro Toluene market in the North American region, particularly USA remained subdued. October saw stable prices, despite planned production increases, reflected weak downstream demand from dyes and pigment sector and a sluggish US economy, suggesting weakness in the Nitro Toluene market. Supply chain disruptions from labor strikes further dampened activity.
November continued this trend, with stable prices highlighting a bearish market sentiment. High inventories, low demand, and persistent supply chain issues (strikes, freight costs) translated to a weak Nitro Toluene market, with low demand and potentially constrained supply due to logistical problems.
December's stable prices indicated continued low demand from the dyes and pigments sector throughout the month. Plant shutdowns impacting Nitro Toluene supply were offset by reduced downstream demand, resulting in a stable but weak market.
In summary, Q4 2024 presented a weak US Nitro Toluene market. A sluggish economy, and consequently dye/pigment demand, supply chain issues, and high inventories all contributed. Market participants struggled with inventory management, supply chain disruptions, and maintaining profitability in a low-demand environment.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the o-Nitro Toluene market in the APAC region, particularly China experienced price volatility. October showed weakness due to oversupply from low TDI demand and high inventories. Bearish sentiment prevailed, despite stable TDI prices and moderate export demand.
November brought price increases due to a confluence of factors: earlier maintenance-related supply reductions were offset by new production capacity; rising inventories stimulated pre-holiday stocking; increased gasoline shipping orders boosted demand; and supply remained relatively stable despite logistical challenges. December saw steady prices, reflecting sufficient domestic supply despite sluggish imports. However, severe port congestion and high road freight significantly impacted export prices. Rising feedstock Toluene prices suggested potential future Nitro Toluene price increases.
In summary, Q4 2024 presented a volatile Chinese o-Nitro Toluene market. Initial weakness from oversupply shifted to price increases due to increased demand (holiday stocking, other sectors) and stable supply despite logistical issues. Market players faced challenges in inventory management, fluctuating TDI-related demand, and unpredictable global supply chain disruptions. Rising feedstock costs added further uncertainty.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the Nitro Toluene market in the European region, particularly Germany reflected the weak dyes and pigments market. October saw declining prices due to weak European polyester demand, increased Asian competition, and rising feedstock costs, Port congestion exacerbated the situation. November brought further price declines due to ample supply, low demand, and logistical challenges (rail, truck shortages). This pointed to a persistent downturn in the Nitro Toluene market, characterized by low demand and supply chain complications. December’s stable prices in December signaled continued low demand for Nitro Toluene throughout the month. Production disruptions and high freight charges (port shutdowns, bad weather) impacted supply. Reduced downstream dyes and pigments demand somewhat balanced this. Weakening consumer confidence added to the downturn.
In short, Q4 2024 presented a weak Nitro Toluene market. Weak European demand, Asian competition, logistical problems (port congestion, transport issues), rising production costs, and low consumer confidence all contributed to low prices and challenging market conditions. Market players faced profitability issues and significant supply chain risks.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, Nitro toluene (NT) prices in North America displayed a mixed pattern, driven by solid demand from the pharmaceutical and agrochemical sectors. The upward pressure on prices was primarily influenced by rising raw material costs, particularly for toluene, due to geopolitical tensions and ongoing supply chain disruptions. These factors contributed to price increases across the region throughout the quarter.
Despite this, the market faced significant challenges, including an oversupply in some segments and competitive pricing strategies from key suppliers, which moderated the overall price growth. Nitro toluene, in particular, showed a positive year-on-year price trend, although prices peaked in early September before experiencing a slight decline by the end of the quarter.
Overall, North America's NT market remained resilient, with stable demand driving recovery and maintaining a positive pricing sentiment. While short-term fluctuations occurred, prices remained higher than in the same period the previous year, reflecting the ongoing recovery and strong market fundamentals that shaped the quarter’s outcome.
APAC
In Q3 2024, Nitro toluene (NT) experienced a mixed trend in prices across the APAC region, primarily driven by heightened demand in the pharmaceutical and agrochemical sectors. Several key factors influenced these market price hikes, including increased raw material costs, particularly those of toluene, stemming from geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, seasonal demand upticks due to monsoon intensified the price escalation. Despite these upward pressures, the market faced challenges such as oversupply in certain segments and aggressive pricing strategies by Chinese suppliers, which moderated the overall price rise. Focusing on Japan, which saw the most significant price changes, the overall pricing trend for Nitro toluene has been mixed. The price assessed at the end of the quarter remained stable over the price assessed last year indicating year-on-year growth in Nitro toluene prices, especially in Nitro toluene, however the prices began their recovery in second quarter from the price of CFR Tokyo assessed around USD 1860/MT on 27th September 2024. The prices dropped by 1% cumulatively in Q3 2024. This quarter's pricing environment has been predominantly positive, marked by recovery and strong demand dynamics, despite some offsetting factors, establishing a stable yet ascendant market sentiment.
Europe
In Q3 2024, Nitro toluene (NT) prices in Europe exhibited a mixed trend, influenced by a combination of strong demand and external market factors. The pharmaceutical and agrochemical sectors continued to drive demand, contributing to upward pressure on prices. Additionally, raw material costs, particularly for toluene, remained elevated due to geopolitical tensions and persistent supply chain disruptions. These factors played a significant role in pushing prices higher throughout the quarter. However, the market also faced notable challenges. An oversupply in certain segments, along with aggressive pricing strategies by some key suppliers, created downward pressure that tempered the overall price increase. Despite these headwinds, the pricing trend for Nitro toluene remained positive year-on-year. Prices, which had peaked in early September, showed signs of stabilization towards the end of Q3 2024, with a slight cumulative decline. Nevertheless, the overall pricing environment in Europe remained favorable. Strong demand fundamentals, coupled with recovering market conditions, ensured that the quarter ended on a positive note, with prices higher than the previous year's levels, despite short-term fluctuations.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The North American Nitro toluene market exhibited a mixed pricing structure in Q2 2024, influenced by a confluence of countervailing factors. While a decrease in feedstock costs, particularly Benzene, initially exerted downward pressure on Nitro toluene pricing, a concurrent rise in sulfuric acid costs, attributable to geopolitical tensions, counterbalanced this effect. Further exacerbating price volatility were supply constraints arising from production facility shutdowns. Geopolitical uncertainties and the impending hurricane season compounded these supply chain disruptions, intensifying cost pressures. Additionally, downstream industries like isocyanates which observed price reduction due to higher conversion of nitro toluene into TDI, pharmaceuticals and agrochemical producers, engaged in significant forward buying and inventory accumulation in response to elevated crude and natural gas prices, further impacting market dynamics.
Focusing on the United States, which witnessed the most pronounced price fluctuations, the overall Nitro toluene pricing trajectory demonstrated a bimodal distribution. The first half of the quarter remained relatively stable, followed by a pronounced upward trend in the latter half. Seasonal factors, such as the surge in demand associated with Memorial Day, coupled with strategic stockpiling activities, contributed to this bullish price movement.
In conclusion, the prevailing pricing environment for Nitro toluene has been largely positive, driven by robust demand, constrained supply, and escalating feedstock costs. These factors collectively contribute to an increasingly optimistic market sentiment, characterized by expectations of continued price increases.
Asia Pacific
In Q2 2024, Nitro Toluene prices in the APAC region experienced a notable decline, driven primarily by an oversupplied market and subdued demand across various sectors. Factors such as increased production, inventory build-up, and sluggish downstream demand in the agrochemical, pharmaceutical, and Toluene diisocyanate (TDI) markets significantly influenced the pricing environment. Additionally, global economic uncertainties, logistical challenges, and fluctuating feedstock prices contributed to the downward pressure on Nitro Toluene prices. Japan, in particular, witnessed the most significant price changes, with Ortho Nitro Toluene prices showing a steep decline. The overall trend in Japan was marked by a bearish market sentiment, exacerbated by high inventory levels and lower-than-expected demand from key sectors such as automotive and construction. Seasonality played a role as well, with reduced activity during the summer months further dampening demand. The correlation in price changes was evident, with year-to-date price fall recorded around 25% for the H1 assessed price. The price comparison revealed that the decline was more prominent in the second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price for Ortho Nitro Toluene in Japan was USD 1870/MT - CFR Tokyo, underscoring the negative pricing environment. Despite the bearish sentiment, the market remained cautiously optimistic about potential stabilization in the coming quarters, as supply-demand dynamics adjust to the new market realities. Overall, Q2 2024 was characterized by a challenging pricing environment for Nitro Toluene, predominantly driven by oversupply and weak demand.
Europe
The European Nitro toluene market experienced significant price fluctuations throughout Q2 2024, influenced by a complex interplay of opposing forces. Initially, a decline in feedstock costs, particularly Benzene, exerted downward pressure on Nitro toluene prices. However, this trend was countered by a concurrent rise in sulfuric acid costs, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions. Further complicating the market dynamics were supply constraints stemming from production facility shutdowns. Geopolitical uncertainties and the anticipation of extended warm season exacerbated these supply chain disruptions, leading to intensified cost pressures. Additionally, downstream industries like isocyanates which observed price reduction due to higher conversion of nitro toluene into TDI towards, pharmaceuticals and agrochemical producers, engaged in significant forward buying and inventory accumulation led to overproduction and supply easing prices at the faster pace by the latter half of the quarter in response to elevated crude and natural gas prices, further impacting market dynamics. Europe, in particular, witnessed the most pronounced price variations. The overall pricing trajectory exhibited a bimodal distribution, with relative stability characterizing the first half of the quarter followed by a sharp upward trend in the latter half. This bullish price movement was driven by a confluence of factors. Firstly, seasonal factors, such as the surge in demand associated with the recovery in construction and automotive sectors, played a role. The increasing focus on sustainability within these industries, coupled with the higher demand for pharmaceuticals and de-coupling from Chinese imports contributed to this demand surge. Secondly, strategic stockpiling activities by market participants further fueled the upward price movement. In conclusion, the dominant sentiment surrounding Nitro toluene pricing in Europe remains largely positive. This optimism stems from a combination of factors, including robust demand across various sectors, constrained supply due to production issues and geopolitical uncertainties, and escalating feedstock costs. These elements collectively contribute to an increasingly bullish market outlook, with expectations of continued price increases in the foreseeable future.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of FY24-25, Ortho-Nitro Toluene prices in North American dropped significantly due to impending bans on S-Metolachlor, a weedkiller that uses ortho-Nitro Toluene as a raw material. Data of USA, shows a steep decline in prices starting from January. This coincided with a 5% increase in Toluene supply contracts compared to the previous quarter. Spot prices for benzene also recovered in February as industrial production picked up with rising temperatures.
North American relies heavily on imports for Ortho-Nitro Toluene, with India and China being the main suppliers. The decline in the herbicide usage led to a plunge in new orders for ortho-Nitro Toluene, resulting in excess inventory. Additionally, new energy supply contracts starting in January offered lower premiums due to relatively low gas prices and high gas inventories.
Despite the overall bearish trend, there are some signs of recovery. Demand for ortho-Nitro Toluene in North American dye production is increasing as energy costs ease. US saw an improvement in Toluene supply in the first half of the quarter but tightening in the second half, but domestic demand within US remained stable. Overall, Ortho-Nitro Toluene prices continued to decline after a weak fourth quarter in FY23-24. This was driven by inventory adjustments, subdued consumption due to high interest rates, and discounted markets in USA and Mexico. However, demand for dyes and other chemicals that use ortho-Nitro Toluene remains lower than historical averages, and new orders have fallen considerably.
Europe
Prices of Ortho-Nitro Toluene in Europe turned bearish in the first quarter of FY24-25 owing to further bans on Metolachlor approaching. Pricing insights and data from Germany reveals significant decline in prices were observed from January as Toluene supply contracts turn higher by at least 8% Q-o-Q basis with spot prices recovering after downturns in the industrial production eased by February as temperatures rose.
Supply of Ortho-Nitro Toluene largely remain imported into European markets with China being the major supplier. Downturns in agrochemical production intensified with newer orders for Nitro Toluene in Europe plunged primarily due to lower demand of agrochemicals. Newer contracts for energy supply beginning January 2024 showed significant reduction in premiums offered as gas prices remained relatively lower than historical averages in the spot markets as gas inventories remained on the higher end. Nitro Toluene demand for dyes and other dyestuff production in Europe is showing recovery with easing energy cost, imports of Toluene from Netherlands and Belgium improved in Germany, though German domestic demand remained subdued.
Overall, Prices showed continued subduction after weak Q4FY23-24, inventory adjustments and subdued consumption due to higher interest rates. With England leading a strong discounted market for consumption, TDI prices remained stable indicating soft polyurethane demand is getting momentum across Europe, especially from refurbishment and furniture markets.
Asia Pacific
The first quarter of 2024 has been bullish for Nitro Toluene pricing in the APAC region. Market prices have seen a significant decline, with a 14% drop compared to the same quarter last year, and by the end of the quarter, price stabilized. Japan has experienced the most notable price changes in the region. Overall trends in the Japanese market have been influenced by seasonality and other factors including Lunar New year festivities and Noto Earthquake supply line disruption. The price change from the previous quarter reflects that the quarter end bearish sentiment offset the February slump in prices. Compared to the YoY basis, prices remained 10% lower due to significant deflation in agrochemical markets.
The latest quarter-ending price for ortho-Nitro Toluene in China was recorded at USD 2160/MT FOB Qingdao. This price indicates a stabilization in price movements with the arrest of price decline, as Toluene supply turned costlier by the quarter end, and a bearish run observed across the Chinese market, with prices of Toluene contracts remained reaching the spot pricing levels as the quarter end stocking approached, while demand for Nitro Toluene remained subdued due relative to previous fiscal levels
In summary, the first quarter of 2024 has been a period of bearish sentiments for ortho-Nitro Toluene in the APAC region. Japan has experienced the most significant price changes, with a negative pricing environment overall triumphing the slump observed in the Late February and early March. The market has been influenced by seasonality and other factors, leading to stable pricing trends.
