USDA Holds Fast on 2023-’24 Corn Ethanol Forecast Amidst Lower Supply Projections

On October 12, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) unveiled its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The report reiterated the USDA's previous forecast regarding corn usage in ethanol production for the 2023-’24 season. However, it revised downward the projected corn utilization for the 2022-’23 season.

According to the WASDE report, an estimated 5.3 billion bushels of corn are expected to be used in ethanol production for the 2023-’24 season. This prediction aligns with the prior month's report, signifying the USDA's confidence in this figure. On the flip side, the USDA has scaled back its prior estimate for corn usage in ethanol for the 2022-’23 season to 5.177 billion bushels - a slight dip from the previous 5.195 billion bushels. To put this into perspective, around 5.32 billion bushels of corn were used for ethanol production in the 2021-’22 season.

A closer look at the situation reveals that the supply of corn is diminishing faster than its utilization. Consequently, the USDA has reduced its prediction for corn ending stocks for the 2023-’24 season by 110 million bushels. This adjustment recognizes the changing corn market dynamics and the need for data to reflect these shifts accurately. Concurrently, the average seasonal corn price received by producers has been increased by 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel, factoring in the fluctuating supply and demand conditions in the corn market and their pricing implications.

In addition, the USDA has updated its forecast for overseas corn production, incorporating upward adjustments for major global corn producers like Argentina, Moldova, the European Union, and Paraguay. The projection for Argentina's corn production has been increased in anticipation of larger planting areas, reflecting the evolving agricultural trends in the country. The European Union's projection has been similarly increased, primarily due to a surge in corn production in France.

The USDA has also reevaluated the import dynamics of specific countries. For instance, it has reduced its projections for corn imports in Bangladesh, mirroring changing trade patterns and market conditions. In addition, foreign corn ending stocks have been revised upward to account for shifts in supply and demand. Notably, increases in Ukraine and Moldova have significantly contributed to this upward adjustment.

Globally, the USDA's analysis highlights shifting supply and demand dynamics in the corn market. The global corn stocks, estimated at 312.4 million tons, have decreased by 1.6 million tons. These changes reflect the USDA's commitment to providing accurate and timely insights into the global corn market and its influencing factors. Adapting to these evolving market conditions is critical for all agricultural sector stakeholders. The USDA continues to serve as a valuable source of information and analysis to guide stakeholders through the ever-changing corn market landscape.