For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The U.S. maize market experienced contrasting trends during Q4 2024, starting with a price surge driven by tight supplies and robust demand but ending on a subdued note due to global competition and weak export demand.
Early in the quarter, unfavorable weather conditions in key states like Iowa and Illinois reduced yields and delayed harvests, while rising production costs, including fertilizer and logistics expenses, further tightened supplies. Strong domestic and overseas demand from livestock feed and ethanol sectors, along with heightened global demand from importers like China and Mexico, pushed prices higher. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region redirected trade flows toward U.S. maize, amplifying export competitiveness amid a weaker U.S. dollar.
By December, however, the market faced headwinds. Increased competition from Brazil and Argentina, offering competitively priced maize due to favorable growing conditions, undermined U.S. export demand. High domestic stocks, coupled with sluggish global consumption driven by inflationary pressures and high interest rates, further pressured prices. Logistical challenges, including port congestion and labor disputes, eased but left residual inefficiencies. Weak demand from key markets in Asia and Africa, alongside ample global production forecasts, diminished price momentum. As a result, U.S. maize prices declined by the end of the quarter, with market conditions favoring global competitors.
Asia Pacific
In Q4 2024, maize (corn) prices in the APAC region, particularly in China, exhibited a notable downtrend due to a combination of oversupply, weak demand, and economic factors. China’s record corn harvest, estimated at approximately 293 million metric tons, significantly increased supply, while demand remained subdued. The hog farming sector, a major consumer of corn, faced profitability challenges, further reducing feed demand. Moreover, Manufacturers in China focused on inventory optimization strategies as the NBS Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.3 in October, indicating moderate economic improvement but emphasizing cost-cutting measures. Broader market trends, including the FAO Cereal Price Index decline, reflected global downward pressure on maize prices. Favorable weather in South America, weaker Ukrainian exports, and seasonal U.S. harvest pressures also contributed to the price drop. Additionally, oversupply issues were exacerbated by surpluses of lower-grade corn affected by weather-related quality concerns, despite reduced production estimates. The ethanol and poultry sectors also saw weaker demand, adding to the persistent softness in trading performance. Overall, the Chinese maize market experienced a bearish trajectory, characterized by lower input costs, falling selling prices, and weak downstream uptake.
Europe
In Q4 2024, maize prices in Europe, particularly Ukrainian corn, exhibited a volatile trend shaped by supply-demand challenges. October saw rising prices as Ukraine's corn production plummeted to 22.9–27 million metric tons for the 2024/25 season, a sharp decline from the previous year's 31.5 million metric tons. This drop resulted from unfavorable weather, including record-high temperatures and inadequate rainfall, alongside persistent logistical challenges from damaged infrastructure and congested export routes. Elevated input costs and strong global demand, particularly from Europe and North Africa, further tightened the market. In November, Ukrainian corn prices declined as farmers withheld sales due to financial support through preferential loans and cost-effective farming technologies. Increased competition from U.S. and Brazilian corn, coupled with subdued demand from Asia and Africa, weakened Ukrainian corn’s market position. However, December brought a steady rise in export prices at Black Sea ports, driven by a stronger U.S. dollar surging demand from the EU and China, and depreciation of Ukrainian hryvnia against the dollar, benefitting the traders in terms of higher exports. As 2025 approached, tight supplies and robust export demand positioned Ukrainian corn prices for potential upward pressure, signaling a critical juncture for stakeholders.
South America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Brazilian corn prices witnessed an overall upward trend with a modest drop witnessed at the end of 2024. Initially, the increase was driven by the devaluation of the Brazilian Real, which enhanced export competitiveness and boosted foreign demand. Tight domestic supplies, influenced by reduced inventories and transportation challenges, further contributed to price hikes. Additionally, the soybean market's strength diverted planting focus from corn to soybeans, constraining corn production. Exporters prioritized international sales due to favorable currency exchange rates, creating challenges despite strong domestic demand from industries like animal feed and biofuels. The onset of La Niña, with its potential for adverse weather conditions, added uncertainty, prompting global buyers to secure corn supplies early. Overall, Brazilian corn acreage remained stable, with production projected to grow by 3.6% year-over-year, overcoming previous weather setbacks. However, the global corn supply surge, particularly from Argentina, intensified competition in key export markets like Asia and Europe. Reduced holiday season demand and increased global availability pressured Brazilian exporters to adjust their pricing strategies in the end. Despite these challenges, Brazil maintained a competitive position in the international market, underscoring the resilience and adaptability of its corn export sector as December 2024 concludes.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American maize market began the third quarter with a notable downward trend but ended the period on a more positive note. This shift was influenced by various factors, including global demand-supply fluctuations, which kept overall prices on the decline.
From July through August 2024, a pessimistic market outlook contributed to a continued drop in overseas quotations, particularly impacting the feed sectors and downstream food industries. Increased supplies from competing exporters, such as Brazil, combined with stabilization efforts by producers and improvements in weather conditions in previously uncertain regions, further eroded U.S. market dominance. This suggested that the significant U.S. corn acreage from the previous year may have been excessive, reinforcing the overall downward trend. Additionally, a slight decline in ethanol demand—a key consumer of corn—fueled bearish market sentiment. The combination of strong production forecasts, lagging exports, and reduced industrial demand created a challenging environment for maize prices, presenting difficulties for producers while offering opportunities for buyers in the agricultural commodities market.
Overall, the quarter experienced a 6% decline compared to the previous period, highlighting the downward pricing trend. However, by the end of the quarter, the export market generally stabilized, supported by a modest increase in overseas quotations from the feed sector. This uptick in demand allowed suppliers to consistently quote higher prices for new orders, demonstrating the market's capacity to absorb price increases and maintain profit margins.
Asia Pacific
In Q3 2024, Maize (Corn) pricing in the APAC region experienced an overall downtrend, driven by several significant factors. The market saw decreasing prices due to weakened demand from end-user sectors, particularly in the feed industry, leading to surplus stockpiles. Additionally, the anticipation of a favorable harvest season in exporting nations resulted in a drop in corn prices globally which further benfitted the buyers in terms of purchases. Moreover, across the Asia Pacific, within China, the market experienced the most significant price changes. Despite a stable global market, China saw a notable decrease in corn prices at a steady rate when compared to the previous quarter of the same year. Supportingly, there was a steady reluctance among traders to procure the material supported by an appreciation of the Yuan against the dollar kept the prices of commodities on the lower side, providing additional opportunity for downstream buyers to procure the goods at a lower cost which overall supports a downward trajectory until the final weeks of September 2024. However, the market witnessed a steady rise at the beginning of the quarter. Overall, with a steady downward trend, the prices of corn dropped by nearly 0.21 percent from the previous quarter of 2024.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, maize (corn) prices in Europe saw a significant upward trend driven by a combination of supply constraints, increased global demand, and currency fluctuations. Adverse weather conditions and reduced harvest forecasts severely limited regional maize availability, tightening supply and pushing prices higher. Strong global demand, particularly from key importing nations, further exacerbated the price rise. Additionally, uncertainties in the global economy and geopolitical tensions contributed to a bullish market sentiment. In France, maize prices experienced the most substantial changes within Europe. Delays in planting due to weather, high production costs, and supply shortages led to pronounced price fluctuations. Although prices initially dropped until mid-quarter, they surged in September, driven by seasonal factors and a strong correlation in pricing trends. Overall, the quarter recorded a 2% price increase compared to the previous period. Ukraine, another major producer, was also impacted by adverse weather conditions, which negatively affected corn yields. Increased input costs for fertilizers and seeds further constrained production. On the demand side, robust global demand for corn, especially for animal feed and biofuels, intensified competition for available supply. Ukrainian corn, priced competitively, attracted heightened interest, especially from livestock producers looking to stockpile feed in anticipation of future shortages. Despite strong demand, Ukraine’s corn exports dropped steadily in July, contributing to market tightness. Farmers’ reluctance to sell at lower prices also restricted supply, adding upward pressure on prices. Overall, maize prices in the region rose by more than 5% by the end of the quarter compared to Q2 2024.
South America
In Q3 2024, Maize (Corn) pricing in the South America Region witnessed a notable uptrend, driven by several key factors. The market was influenced by a combination of increased global demand, supply constraints, and currency fluctuations. These dynamics, along with disruptions in the supply chain, contributed to a surge in corn prices across the region. Similar to that of other producing nations, Brazil, in particular, experienced significant price changes, reflecting the overall bullish trend in the market. The root cause of this was the significant drop in corn production or yield due to weather concerns, which had devastated the previous corn crop, leading to fears of a significant reduction in the ongoing harvest. This decline in supply has led to an impending shortage, causing a rise in prices. The first crop (from the summer corn cycle) and the second crop yield in most of the states have decreased because of adverse weather as a result of El Niño. Additionally, continuous rising demand from certain parts of the APAC region, such as South Korean end-users ahead of future anticipation of supply shortages within the industry, has maintained an optimistic trajectory for market inquiries concerning corn, further supporting this month's higher trade activity. However, with limited availability of the crop, supported by a significant rise in global prices , market transactions have continued to remain uplifted, particularly more costly for the importing regions, creating an imbalance in overall trading sentiments and supply-demand dynamics. Overall, despite a 4% decrease from the previous quarter, the overall trajectory remained positive prevailing bullish sentiment, highlighting a favorable pricing environment characterized by increasing prices and a bullish outlook for the maize market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The North American maize market experienced a general downward trend in the second quarter of 2024, driven by weakened purchasing sentiment due to subdued international demand. This trend was exacerbated by persistent bearish inquiries, currency fluctuations, and trade disruptions.
Starting with the beginning of the second quarter, in April, continuing the trend of past month, pessimistic market outlook, including a persistent drop in regional quotations, particularly from feed sectors and downstream food industries, weakened production focuses within the region, and currency fluctuations. On the demand side, inquiries from end-users breeding industry continue to suppress the rebound in demand for corn feed. Meanwhile, farmers in the Northeast production area remain busy with stable trades of moisture corn, and overall prices in the Northeast production area remain stable. Influenced by the continuous rise in gas temperature, the main players in the grain storage trade in various parts of China show an increased intention to cash out, resulting in a continuous price decline. Additionally, there was a persistent reluctance among traders to procure the material as the Chinese yuan continued to depreciate against the US dollar, thereby making goods more expensive in terms of yuan, which further kept overall procurements for corn on the lower side. Overall, deep processing enterprises have a relatively sufficient corn inventory, and the domestic corn market maintains a strong supply and weak demand situation, resulting in corn market prices continuing to be under pressure and muted.
The increase in grain prices, especially wheat, highlighted the sensitivity of global markets, causing a shift in demand towards corn. This gradual boost in corn purchasing significantly raised its prices. Consequently, stakeholders across the industry closely monitored these developments, adapting their strategies to trade commodities at higher prices throughout May.
Asia Pacific
Maize prices globally show an overall positive trend, with initial increases followed by a slight dip in early Q2 2024. By April, reduced regional demand and increased supply from major producers like the USA and Russia, along with strong exports from other grain-producing countries, led to price declines. China's ample inventories and decreased imports, particularly from the US, further impacted the market. Reluctance in end-user sectors, especially animal feed and ethanol industries, resulted in surplus stocks and weakened trading sentiment. May saw a steady price increase, attributed to higher corn processing volumes in China due to increased downstream industry utilization. This suggested strong maize demand, potentially exacerbating supply-demand imbalances. Rising inventory holding costs for trading companies motivated them to maintain higher prices to protect profit margins. The FAO Food Price Index reached 120.4 points in May 2024, up 0.9% from April, with notable increases in cereals and dairy products. The FAO Cereal Price Index rose 6.3% to 118.7 points. This upward trend continued through the quarter's end. Persistent inventory holding costs for trading companies reinforced their efforts to maintain elevated prices. Additionally, increased acquisition intentions among corn market companies, possibly due to anticipated supply shortages or speculation, further drove prices up as buyers competed for available supplies. Lastly, the breeding industry's recovery has created a profitable environment, encouraging farmers to restock. This is expected to support future corn feed demand recovery, contributing to an optimistic market outlook.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European maize (corn) market experienced diverse pricing trends, with notable variations across countries. France and Ukraine saw persistent price increases, while Spain, an importing nation, witnessed a steady decline towards the end of the quarter. France maintained an optimistic trading outlook throughout Q2, with demand outpacing supply. Corn prices consistently rose due to high demand, limited supplies, the onset of the sowing season, and currency fluctuations. Downstream purchasing activity ranged from moderate to high levels. Strong international demand for animal feed and biofuel production, including from Spain and neighboring regions, boosted French corn export prospects, allowing suppliers to command higher prices. French farmers faced initial rain delays during the maize planting campaign, raising concerns about potential crop switches. However, a subsequent warm, dry spell was expected to facilitate fieldwork, potentially alleviating these worries. Suppliers continued to raise prices, anticipating competition from other major corn-producing regions, particularly Ukraine. This preemptive pricing strategy aimed to position French corn exports favorably. Rising costs of essential inputs like fertilizers and pesticides also prompted French farmers to seek higher prices to maintain profitability. In Ukraine, factors such as increasing competition from other producing nations, heightened global demand, and weather disruptions affecting sowing sentiments and trade outlook kept overall market sentiments bullish throughout the quarter. Spain, as an importing nation, saw corn prices rise until mid-Q2 before steadily declining towards the end of June. In April and May 2024, high demand from end-user feed industries resulted in higher import quotations from the regional market. Unfavorable weather conditions in major corn-producing regions, supply chain disruptions, lingering pandemic effects on agricultural trade, geopolitical tensions, and exchange rate fluctuations drove up costs for Spanish importers. As June began, prices in Spain dropped steadily, contrary to the previous two months' trend. This was primarily due to declining demand for animal feed, a significant corn application, leading to reduced import volumes. Increased use of alternative feed sources contributed to decreased reliance on imported corn, suppressing overall prices and resulting in higher supplies among merchants.
South America
The maize market in Q2 2024 began optimistically, with prices rising until mid-quarter before steadily declining towards the end. In April 2024, the market closely monitored southern Brazil and Argentina, where heavy rainfall and flooding impacted crops, boosting export prices. Argentina, a major corn exporter, faced dwindling supplies, reducing global availability. Demand from various sectors, including ethanol industries, remained high, resulting in consistent overseas inquiries. Vietnam's Commodity Exchange reported a 13.2% increase in global corn prices over two months, indicating a potential supply shortage. Argentina's monthly inflation was expected to fall below 10% in April. The FAO Food Price Index reached 119.1 points in April 2024, up 0.3% from March, with increases in meat, vegetable oil, and cereal indices offsetting decreases in sugar and dairy products. This trend continued until mid-quarter when weakened supplies among traders affected demand. Argentina continued to struggle with adverse weather conditions and disease outbreaks, leading to significant crop yield declines. Erratic rainfall patterns and pest infestations severely hampered corn production, limiting export availability. Persistent demand from parts of the APAC region, particularly South Korean ethanol industry end-users, maintained optimistic market inquiries for corn, supporting higher trade activity. However, as Q2 approached its end, export prices steadily dropped, indicating a more balanced supply-demand outlook.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter, the North American maize market encountered pressure due to uncertain purchasing sentiments stemming from muted demand from importing nations. This was fueled by ongoing bearish inquiries, currency fluctuations, and trade disruptions. In the APAC region, China's status as a major importer raised concerns due to its slowing economy, weak purchasing from livestock industries, and closures during the Chinese Lunar New Year, affecting market activity with reduced imports and exports.
Furthermore, record-large harvests in the US and South America intensified competition for US grain exports, resulting in a surplus of stored Maize that flooded the market, and drove down the prices of Maize globally thereby impacting American farmers' profitability. Additionally, currency devaluation in importing nations and significant rises in freight costs ahead of the Red Sea dispute added complexity, leading merchants to hesitate in procuring goods at higher costs, contributing to a southerly trading atmosphere until February.
However, there was a significant resumption of trade activities and shipments in March, accompanied by eased freight costs from past months, resulting in higher commodity availability, including corn, globally. This accessibility alleviated concerns over potential supply shortages, exerting downward pressure on prices. Despite these positive developments, challenges persisted, including subdued demand, sluggish purchasing activities, and depressed consumer confidence. Overall, the maize pricing environment in Q1 2024 experienced negativity, with a quarter-ending price of USD 198/MT FOB Los Angeles.
Asia Pacific
The overall pricing environment for Maize in the APAC region during Q1 2024 was described as negative, with prices experiencing a decrease of more than 3 % compared to the previous quarter of last year. Several factors have contributed to this recent price depreciation. Decreased regional and overseas demand, higher stockpiles available, weakened trade momentum, and considerable fluctuations in currency have been a major drivers, stimulating the overall pessimistic market outlook for Maize. This was further attributed to a global surplus in Maize supply, driven by higher production in major exporting nations such as Argentina, Brazil, and the United States. The availability of ample stockpiles has put downward pressure on prices globally. However, regarding market dynamics in the Chinese domestic market, downstream trading experienced a general weakening trend, particularly evident in the feed and biofuel industries for Maize throughout the quarter with a modest increase in end-user consumption. Consequently, major grain reserve traders prioritized releasing their stocks before the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, leading merchants to trade their goods at higher prices as the Yuan continued to devaluate against the dollar. Concerning the importing region, particularly In South Korea, the country has experienced the maximum price changes during this quarter. The market has been characterized by a curtailed demand from downstream industries, including the feed and food sectors. This has led to a decrease in consumption and a subsequent drop in prices. Additionally, the country has seen a decline in import activity supported by the flagging of the South Korean won against the dollar by 3.85 percent throughout the quarter which further impacted the overall market dynamics, resulting in an overall muted importing sentiment. As of the end of the quarter, the price of Maize CFR Busan in South Korea stood at USD 285/MT. At the same time concerning the market activity within the Chinese domestic market, downstream trading witnessed an overall weakened trajectory with a bearish trend witnessed in feed and other biofuel industries for corn. However, the market witnessed a modest rise in end-user consumption. As a result, major grain reserve traders focused on releasing their stocks before the CLNY holiday, thereby merchants considerably traded their goods at elevated prices.
Europe
The pricing landscape for maize (corn) in the European region during Q1 2024 has been marked by fluctuating market conditions, showing significant variations across different countries. Maize prices have exhibited a mix of positive and negative trends, influenced by several factors. France, in particular, experienced notable price changes, with prices trending upward throughout the quarter. This upward trajectory was largely driven by farmer protests highlighting challenges such as inflation, high-interest rates, and volatile energy prices, which have increased commodity costs, including agriculture, since January 2024. Farmers are demanding better remuneration, reduced bureaucracy, and protection against cheap imports, particularly from Ukraine.
Energy price volatility, the loss of access to Russian natural gas, and trade disruptions in the Red Sea caused by attacks on ships by Yemen’s Houthi rebels have further compounded these challenges, keeping export prices, including maize, elevated. However, Mid-quarter, maize prices sharply declined due to reduced regional quotations from importing nations like Spain. Conversely, exporting nations such as Ukraine also saw significant price drops influenced by global market dynamics. Increased production in major maize-producing regions like the US, Argentina, Brazil, and partially Ukraine, coupled with lower demand, drove this decline.
Moreover, constrained consumer demand from the global market led to a decrease in exports throughout the quarter. At the grassroots level, farmers showed a strong willingness to sell their grain, continuously increasing the overall supply in the domestic maize market and offering goods at lower costs. However, the reduction in freight costs in previous months somewhat provided resilience to the global market, resulting in heightened availability of goods at lower shipping costs. Nevertheless, continuous subdued downstream purchases and the depreciation of importing nations' currencies against the dollar kept overall market sentiments on the pessimistic side. Overall, the maize pricing environment in the European region during Q1 2024 can be described as volatile, with prices experiencing fluctuations influenced by various factors. As of the end of the quarter, the latest recorded maize prices were USD 189/MT FOB Marseille in France, USD 231/MT CFR Barcelona, and USD 172/MT FOB Odessa.
South America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Maize (Corn) market in the South American region experienced a continuous price decline throughout the quarter. This downturn was corroborated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), which reported a sharp drop in world corn prices until the final weeks of March 2024. Additionally, improved production prospects, particularly stemming from favorable conditions in Argentina and increased supplies from the United States resulted in a higher projection for corn harvest coupled with weakened purchasing sentiments witnessed across the global market further dampening the overall market sentiments to remain on the lower side. Although there was a slight market uptick due to speculative bargain hunting, factors like Brazilian production estimates and dry spells in Argentina kept the prices volatile. Additionally, Brazilian production saw a less significant decrease than initially forecasted, further driving price declines. Moreover, subdued overseas inquiries from the APAC region particularly South Korea primarily from the downstream ethanol industries which accounts for a major consumer of Maize as a feedstock throughout the quarter added pressure on market traders, who were focused on clearing their inventories. However, the relative strengthening of the dollar against currencies like the Argentine peso provided resilience to international trades, allowing for stockpiling at reduced costs at the end of the first quarter. However, consumer and retailer hesitancy, stemming from previous stock accumulations, temporarily slowed business activities. This localized price decrease had a global impact, contributing to the ongoing trend of bearish trade momentum. As of the end of the quarter, the latest recorded maize prices were USD 173/MT FOB Buenos Aires in Argentina, demonstrating an overall weak market sentiment with respect to the trade momentum.
