For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The North American maize market began the third quarter with a notable downward trend but ended the period on a more positive note. This shift was influenced by various factors, including global demand-supply fluctuations, which kept overall prices on the decline.
From July through August 2024, a pessimistic market outlook contributed to a continued drop in overseas quotations, particularly impacting the feed sectors and downstream food industries. Increased supplies from competing exporters, such as Brazil, combined with stabilization efforts by producers and improvements in weather conditions in previously uncertain regions, further eroded U.S. market dominance. This suggested that the significant U.S. corn acreage from the previous year may have been excessive, reinforcing the overall downward trend. Additionally, a slight decline in ethanol demand—a key consumer of corn—fueled bearish market sentiment. The combination of strong production forecasts, lagging exports, and reduced industrial demand created a challenging environment for maize prices, presenting difficulties for producers while offering opportunities for buyers in the agricultural commodities market.
Overall, the quarter experienced a 6% decline compared to the previous period, highlighting the downward pricing trend. However, by the end of the quarter, the export market generally stabilized, supported by a modest increase in overseas quotations from the feed sector. This uptick in demand allowed suppliers to consistently quote higher prices for new orders, demonstrating the market's capacity to absorb price increases and maintain profit margins.
Asia Pacific
In Q3 2024, Maize (Corn) pricing in the APAC region experienced an overall downtrend, driven by several significant factors. The market saw decreasing prices due to weakened demand from end-user sectors, particularly in the feed industry, leading to surplus stockpiles. Additionally, the anticipation of a favorable harvest season in exporting nations resulted in a drop in corn prices globally which further benfitted the buyers in terms of purchases. Moreover, across the Asia Pacific, within China, the market experienced the most significant price changes. Despite a stable global market, China saw a notable decrease in corn prices at a steady rate when compared to the previous quarter of the same year. Supportingly, there was a steady reluctance among traders to procure the material supported by an appreciation of the Yuan against the dollar kept the prices of commodities on the lower side, providing additional opportunity for downstream buyers to procure the goods at a lower cost which overall supports a downward trajectory until the final weeks of September 2024. However, the market witnessed a steady rise at the beginning of the quarter. Overall, with a steady downward trend, the prices of corn dropped by nearly 0.21 percent from the previous quarter of 2024.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2024, maize (corn) prices in Europe saw a significant upward trend driven by a combination of supply constraints, increased global demand, and currency fluctuations. Adverse weather conditions and reduced harvest forecasts severely limited regional maize availability, tightening supply and pushing prices higher. Strong global demand, particularly from key importing nations, further exacerbated the price rise. Additionally, uncertainties in the global economy and geopolitical tensions contributed to a bullish market sentiment. In France, maize prices experienced the most substantial changes within Europe. Delays in planting due to weather, high production costs, and supply shortages led to pronounced price fluctuations. Although prices initially dropped until mid-quarter, they surged in September, driven by seasonal factors and a strong correlation in pricing trends. Overall, the quarter recorded a 2% price increase compared to the previous period. Ukraine, another major producer, was also impacted by adverse weather conditions, which negatively affected corn yields. Increased input costs for fertilizers and seeds further constrained production. On the demand side, robust global demand for corn, especially for animal feed and biofuels, intensified competition for available supply. Ukrainian corn, priced competitively, attracted heightened interest, especially from livestock producers looking to stockpile feed in anticipation of future shortages. Despite strong demand, Ukraine’s corn exports dropped steadily in July, contributing to market tightness. Farmers’ reluctance to sell at lower prices also restricted supply, adding upward pressure on prices. Overall, maize prices in the region rose by more than 5% by the end of the quarter compared to Q2 2024.
South America
In Q3 2024, Maize (Corn) pricing in the South America Region witnessed a notable uptrend, driven by several key factors. The market was influenced by a combination of increased global demand, supply constraints, and currency fluctuations. These dynamics, along with disruptions in the supply chain, contributed to a surge in corn prices across the region. Similar to that of other producing nations, Brazil, in particular, experienced significant price changes, reflecting the overall bullish trend in the market. The root cause of this was the significant drop in corn production or yield due to weather concerns, which had devastated the previous corn crop, leading to fears of a significant reduction in the ongoing harvest. This decline in supply has led to an impending shortage, causing a rise in prices. The first crop (from the summer corn cycle) and the second crop yield in most of the states have decreased because of adverse weather as a result of El Niño. Additionally, continuous rising demand from certain parts of the APAC region, such as South Korean end-users ahead of future anticipation of supply shortages within the industry, has maintained an optimistic trajectory for market inquiries concerning corn, further supporting this month's higher trade activity. However, with limited availability of the crop, supported by a significant rise in global prices , market transactions have continued to remain uplifted, particularly more costly for the importing regions, creating an imbalance in overall trading sentiments and supply-demand dynamics. Overall, despite a 4% decrease from the previous quarter, the overall trajectory remained positive prevailing bullish sentiment, highlighting a favorable pricing environment characterized by increasing prices and a bullish outlook for the maize market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The North American maize market experienced a general downward trend in the second quarter of 2024, driven by weakened purchasing sentiment due to subdued international demand. This trend was exacerbated by persistent bearish inquiries, currency fluctuations, and trade disruptions.
Starting with the beginning of the second quarter, in April, continuing the trend of past month, pessimistic market outlook, including a persistent drop in regional quotations, particularly from feed sectors and downstream food industries, weakened production focuses within the region, and currency fluctuations. On the demand side, inquiries from end-users breeding industry continue to suppress the rebound in demand for corn feed. Meanwhile, farmers in the Northeast production area remain busy with stable trades of moisture corn, and overall prices in the Northeast production area remain stable. Influenced by the continuous rise in gas temperature, the main players in the grain storage trade in various parts of China show an increased intention to cash out, resulting in a continuous price decline. Additionally, there was a persistent reluctance among traders to procure the material as the Chinese yuan continued to depreciate against the US dollar, thereby making goods more expensive in terms of yuan, which further kept overall procurements for corn on the lower side. Overall, deep processing enterprises have a relatively sufficient corn inventory, and the domestic corn market maintains a strong supply and weak demand situation, resulting in corn market prices continuing to be under pressure and muted.
The increase in grain prices, especially wheat, highlighted the sensitivity of global markets, causing a shift in demand towards corn. This gradual boost in corn purchasing significantly raised its prices. Consequently, stakeholders across the industry closely monitored these developments, adapting their strategies to trade commodities at higher prices throughout May.
Asia Pacific
Maize prices globally show an overall positive trend, with initial increases followed by a slight dip in early Q2 2024. By April, reduced regional demand and increased supply from major producers like the USA and Russia, along with strong exports from other grain-producing countries, led to price declines. China's ample inventories and decreased imports, particularly from the US, further impacted the market. Reluctance in end-user sectors, especially animal feed and ethanol industries, resulted in surplus stocks and weakened trading sentiment. May saw a steady price increase, attributed to higher corn processing volumes in China due to increased downstream industry utilization. This suggested strong maize demand, potentially exacerbating supply-demand imbalances. Rising inventory holding costs for trading companies motivated them to maintain higher prices to protect profit margins. The FAO Food Price Index reached 120.4 points in May 2024, up 0.9% from April, with notable increases in cereals and dairy products. The FAO Cereal Price Index rose 6.3% to 118.7 points. This upward trend continued through the quarter's end. Persistent inventory holding costs for trading companies reinforced their efforts to maintain elevated prices. Additionally, increased acquisition intentions among corn market companies, possibly due to anticipated supply shortages or speculation, further drove prices up as buyers competed for available supplies. Lastly, the breeding industry's recovery has created a profitable environment, encouraging farmers to restock. This is expected to support future corn feed demand recovery, contributing to an optimistic market outlook.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European maize (corn) market experienced diverse pricing trends, with notable variations across countries. France and Ukraine saw persistent price increases, while Spain, an importing nation, witnessed a steady decline towards the end of the quarter. France maintained an optimistic trading outlook throughout Q2, with demand outpacing supply. Corn prices consistently rose due to high demand, limited supplies, the onset of the sowing season, and currency fluctuations. Downstream purchasing activity ranged from moderate to high levels. Strong international demand for animal feed and biofuel production, including from Spain and neighboring regions, boosted French corn export prospects, allowing suppliers to command higher prices. French farmers faced initial rain delays during the maize planting campaign, raising concerns about potential crop switches. However, a subsequent warm, dry spell was expected to facilitate fieldwork, potentially alleviating these worries. Suppliers continued to raise prices, anticipating competition from other major corn-producing regions, particularly Ukraine. This preemptive pricing strategy aimed to position French corn exports favorably. Rising costs of essential inputs like fertilizers and pesticides also prompted French farmers to seek higher prices to maintain profitability. In Ukraine, factors such as increasing competition from other producing nations, heightened global demand, and weather disruptions affecting sowing sentiments and trade outlook kept overall market sentiments bullish throughout the quarter. Spain, as an importing nation, saw corn prices rise until mid-Q2 before steadily declining towards the end of June. In April and May 2024, high demand from end-user feed industries resulted in higher import quotations from the regional market. Unfavorable weather conditions in major corn-producing regions, supply chain disruptions, lingering pandemic effects on agricultural trade, geopolitical tensions, and exchange rate fluctuations drove up costs for Spanish importers. As June began, prices in Spain dropped steadily, contrary to the previous two months' trend. This was primarily due to declining demand for animal feed, a significant corn application, leading to reduced import volumes. Increased use of alternative feed sources contributed to decreased reliance on imported corn, suppressing overall prices and resulting in higher supplies among merchants.
South America
The maize market in Q2 2024 began optimistically, with prices rising until mid-quarter before steadily declining towards the end. In April 2024, the market closely monitored southern Brazil and Argentina, where heavy rainfall and flooding impacted crops, boosting export prices. Argentina, a major corn exporter, faced dwindling supplies, reducing global availability. Demand from various sectors, including ethanol industries, remained high, resulting in consistent overseas inquiries. Vietnam's Commodity Exchange reported a 13.2% increase in global corn prices over two months, indicating a potential supply shortage. Argentina's monthly inflation was expected to fall below 10% in April. The FAO Food Price Index reached 119.1 points in April 2024, up 0.3% from March, with increases in meat, vegetable oil, and cereal indices offsetting decreases in sugar and dairy products. This trend continued until mid-quarter when weakened supplies among traders affected demand. Argentina continued to struggle with adverse weather conditions and disease outbreaks, leading to significant crop yield declines. Erratic rainfall patterns and pest infestations severely hampered corn production, limiting export availability. Persistent demand from parts of the APAC region, particularly South Korean ethanol industry end-users, maintained optimistic market inquiries for corn, supporting higher trade activity. However, as Q2 approached its end, export prices steadily dropped, indicating a more balanced supply-demand outlook.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter, the North American maize market encountered pressure due to uncertain purchasing sentiments stemming from muted demand from importing nations. This was fueled by ongoing bearish inquiries, currency fluctuations, and trade disruptions. In the APAC region, China's status as a major importer raised concerns due to its slowing economy, weak purchasing from livestock industries, and closures during the Chinese Lunar New Year, affecting market activity with reduced imports and exports.
Furthermore, record-large harvests in the US and South America intensified competition for US grain exports, resulting in a surplus of stored Maize that flooded the market, and drove down the prices of Maize globally thereby impacting American farmers' profitability. Additionally, currency devaluation in importing nations and significant rises in freight costs ahead of the Red Sea dispute added complexity, leading merchants to hesitate in procuring goods at higher costs, contributing to a southerly trading atmosphere until February.
However, there was a significant resumption of trade activities and shipments in March, accompanied by eased freight costs from past months, resulting in higher commodity availability, including corn, globally. This accessibility alleviated concerns over potential supply shortages, exerting downward pressure on prices. Despite these positive developments, challenges persisted, including subdued demand, sluggish purchasing activities, and depressed consumer confidence. Overall, the maize pricing environment in Q1 2024 experienced negativity, with a quarter-ending price of USD 198/MT FOB Los Angeles.
Asia Pacific
The overall pricing environment for Maize in the APAC region during Q1 2024 was described as negative, with prices experiencing a decrease of more than 3 % compared to the previous quarter of last year. Several factors have contributed to this recent price depreciation. Decreased regional and overseas demand, higher stockpiles available, weakened trade momentum, and considerable fluctuations in currency have been a major drivers, stimulating the overall pessimistic market outlook for Maize. This was further attributed to a global surplus in Maize supply, driven by higher production in major exporting nations such as Argentina, Brazil, and the United States. The availability of ample stockpiles has put downward pressure on prices globally. However, regarding market dynamics in the Chinese domestic market, downstream trading experienced a general weakening trend, particularly evident in the feed and biofuel industries for Maize throughout the quarter with a modest increase in end-user consumption. Consequently, major grain reserve traders prioritized releasing their stocks before the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, leading merchants to trade their goods at higher prices as the Yuan continued to devaluate against the dollar. Concerning the importing region, particularly In South Korea, the country has experienced the maximum price changes during this quarter. The market has been characterized by a curtailed demand from downstream industries, including the feed and food sectors. This has led to a decrease in consumption and a subsequent drop in prices. Additionally, the country has seen a decline in import activity supported by the flagging of the South Korean won against the dollar by 3.85 percent throughout the quarter which further impacted the overall market dynamics, resulting in an overall muted importing sentiment. As of the end of the quarter, the price of Maize CFR Busan in South Korea stood at USD 285/MT. At the same time concerning the market activity within the Chinese domestic market, downstream trading witnessed an overall weakened trajectory with a bearish trend witnessed in feed and other biofuel industries for corn. However, the market witnessed a modest rise in end-user consumption. As a result, major grain reserve traders focused on releasing their stocks before the CLNY holiday, thereby merchants considerably traded their goods at elevated prices.
Europe
The pricing landscape for maize (corn) in the European region during Q1 2024 has been marked by fluctuating market conditions, showing significant variations across different countries. Maize prices have exhibited a mix of positive and negative trends, influenced by several factors. France, in particular, experienced notable price changes, with prices trending upward throughout the quarter. This upward trajectory was largely driven by farmer protests highlighting challenges such as inflation, high-interest rates, and volatile energy prices, which have increased commodity costs, including agriculture, since January 2024. Farmers are demanding better remuneration, reduced bureaucracy, and protection against cheap imports, particularly from Ukraine.
Energy price volatility, the loss of access to Russian natural gas, and trade disruptions in the Red Sea caused by attacks on ships by Yemen’s Houthi rebels have further compounded these challenges, keeping export prices, including maize, elevated. However, Mid-quarter, maize prices sharply declined due to reduced regional quotations from importing nations like Spain. Conversely, exporting nations such as Ukraine also saw significant price drops influenced by global market dynamics. Increased production in major maize-producing regions like the US, Argentina, Brazil, and partially Ukraine, coupled with lower demand, drove this decline.
Moreover, constrained consumer demand from the global market led to a decrease in exports throughout the quarter. At the grassroots level, farmers showed a strong willingness to sell their grain, continuously increasing the overall supply in the domestic maize market and offering goods at lower costs. However, the reduction in freight costs in previous months somewhat provided resilience to the global market, resulting in heightened availability of goods at lower shipping costs. Nevertheless, continuous subdued downstream purchases and the depreciation of importing nations' currencies against the dollar kept overall market sentiments on the pessimistic side. Overall, the maize pricing environment in the European region during Q1 2024 can be described as volatile, with prices experiencing fluctuations influenced by various factors. As of the end of the quarter, the latest recorded maize prices were USD 189/MT FOB Marseille in France, USD 231/MT CFR Barcelona, and USD 172/MT FOB Odessa.
South America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Maize (Corn) market in the South American region experienced a continuous price decline throughout the quarter. This downturn was corroborated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), which reported a sharp drop in world corn prices until the final weeks of March 2024. Additionally, improved production prospects, particularly stemming from favorable conditions in Argentina and increased supplies from the United States resulted in a higher projection for corn harvest coupled with weakened purchasing sentiments witnessed across the global market further dampening the overall market sentiments to remain on the lower side. Although there was a slight market uptick due to speculative bargain hunting, factors like Brazilian production estimates and dry spells in Argentina kept the prices volatile. Additionally, Brazilian production saw a less significant decrease than initially forecasted, further driving price declines. Moreover, subdued overseas inquiries from the APAC region particularly South Korea primarily from the downstream ethanol industries which accounts for a major consumer of Maize as a feedstock throughout the quarter added pressure on market traders, who were focused on clearing their inventories. However, the relative strengthening of the dollar against currencies like the Argentine peso provided resilience to international trades, allowing for stockpiling at reduced costs at the end of the first quarter. However, consumer and retailer hesitancy, stemming from previous stock accumulations, temporarily slowed business activities. This localized price decrease had a global impact, contributing to the ongoing trend of bearish trade momentum. As of the end of the quarter, the latest recorded maize prices were USD 173/MT FOB Buenos Aires in Argentina, demonstrating an overall weak market sentiment with respect to the trade momentum.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Initiating with a notable price downturn, the maize market exhibited a positive market outlook as the fourth quarter commenced in December 2023, stabilizing at a rate of US dollar 212 per metric ton. At the outset, in October, maize prices experienced a continued decline, influenced by a pessimistic demand outlook from the previous month. Despite a moderately improved demand due to various factors, such as reduced export expectations and higher global output forecasts, the global corn market remained fiercely competitive. Major exporters engaged in intense competition, leading to a price decrease as they undercut each other's offers.
Moreover, the United Nations Food Agency's world price index fell to its lowest level in over two years in October, driven by declines in sugar, cereals, vegetable oils, and meat. The Food and Agriculture Organization's price index, tracking globally traded food commodities, averaged 120.6 points in October, down from 121.3 the previous month. The FAO Cereal Price Index also decreased by 1.3 points to 125.0 in October, with international wheat prices falling by 1.9%. This decline reflected higher-than-anticipated supplies in the United States and strong competition among exporters.
However, in mid-Q4, prices rebounded and surged suddenly in exporting nations, primarily the USA, driven by a favorable outlook. While not as severe as droughts in other countries, certain US regions experienced dry weather conditions in November 2023, raising concerns about potential yield reductions for the upcoming harvest. This dry spell stressed crops, making them more susceptible to pests and diseases, resulting in decreased yields and increased production costs. Additionally, lasting weather disruptions in South America shifted consumer preferences toward the US corn market, further supporting the sudden price surge. This trend continued until the end of the fourth quarter, with persistent delays in the November harvest due to lingering wet weather leading to limited maize availability in December.
Disruptions caused by the December holidays exacerbated the impact on harvesting activities, placing significant pressure on farmers nationwide. The surge in maize prices presented challenges to their livelihoods, with increased production costs related to higher prices of fertilizers, fuel, and other agricultural inputs influenced by inflation and supply chain disruptions.
Asia Pacific
The maize (corn) market in the APAC region encountered difficulties during the fourth quarter of 2023, as both exporting and importing nations witnessed conflicting trends. Various factors, including economic uncertainty, fluctuating demand, and a decrease in local spot market prices, contributed to the challenges faced by the market. Particularly in China, prices maintained a generally pessimistic outlook throughout the quarter. In October 2023, following the National Day holiday, corn volume in Northeast China increased steadily, fostering connections between new and existing markets. However, the livestock sector experienced a notable decline, with some regions grappling with a resurgence of African swine fever. This led to heightened farmer willingness to sell and monetize their produce, focusing on decreasing overall stocks and a significant dip in corn prices. Consequently, the domestic corn market entered a phase characterized by abundant supply and weak demand, especially as a key feed ingredient for pigs. On the demand side, downstream purchasing activity consistently dwindled, with procurement practices adopting a more cautious approach, and consumer preferences predominantly influencing demand. Suppliers responded by maintaining substantial inventory levels to meet overall off-take requirements, contributing to market fluctuations and a decline. Contrastingly, in importing nations, notably South Korea, maize prices experienced a decline throughout October but rebounded slightly in mid-November, concluding the fourth quarter on a positive note. This positive trend was supported by increased demand for animal feed, especially in South Korea's large livestock industry as of November 2023. Additionally, there was a growing demand for industrial uses of corn, such as bioplastics and biofuels. Global corn supply was tight in November 2023 due to weather disruptions in major exporting nations like Argentina, Brazil, and the United States, leading to reduced corn yields and lower production levels, thereby limiting the availability of goods for exports. Fluctuations in international shipping costs and currency exchange rates also played a role in influencing the final price of imported goods, including maize. As of the current quarter, the latest maize price CFR location in South Korea stands at USD 315/MT. The market is anticipated to continue facing challenges in the upcoming months, with uncertainties persisting in demand and supply dynamics.
Europe
The prices of maize (corn) in both exporting and importing nations within the European region began the fourth quarter on a pessimistic note but concluded with an upward trend. To begin with Ukraine, a significant maize exporter, there was an ample supply of corn in the region throughout October, driven by the harvesting of the new crop. This surge in availability intensified competition among sellers, leading to a decline in prices. The resumption of Ukrainian grain exports by the Black Sea Grain Initiative in October had several positive effects on the country's corn market. The agreement instilled confidence among traders and buyers, fostering increased participation in the market and significantly alleviating the burden on importing nations and consumers by helping to stabilize global corn prices. The surplus in domestic maize supplies exerted downward pressure on prices, prompting exporters to lower prices due to weakened demand. In November 2023, downstream regional market off-takes saw a moderate increase from the previous month. Trade entities expressed a bullish outlook, leading to high prices in the FOB corn market. Downstream consumption from countries like North Africa and the APAC region remained strong, intensifying competition for Ukrainian corn. Rising fuel and fertilizer prices increased production costs for Ukrainian farmers, potentially influencing higher corn prices even in December. Furthermore, increased export quotations and heightened freight costs sustained elevated corn prices overall settling at USD 185/MT as of December 2023. Additionally, examining the market trend observed in importing regions like Italy, maize prices experienced a decline throughout October 2023. Several factors contributed to this price decrease, including a rise in global supply from neighboring regions such as Ukraine and diminished consumption in feed and other industries, resulting in weakened market offtakes. In mid-Q4, concerning the overall demand aspect, trading entities shifted their focus toward replenishing corn stock levels, leading to a modest increase in the arrival volume of corn from both ports and downstream deep processing enterprises, persisting until December 2023. To address oversupply challenges, industry stakeholders worked together to cut surplus inventories and align production with market needs, restoring market balance. Global supply chain disruptions and port congestion in specific regions led to delays and increased costs for corn shipments, supported by higher freight costs, impacting overall import prices with prices settling at USD 245/MT.
South America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Maize (Corn) market in the South American region experienced a continuous price hike until the final weeks of December 2023. Starting with October 2023, drought conditions in some regions of Brazil and Argentina impacted yields and led to a rise in corn prices. Moreover, the strengthening of the Brazilian real against the US dollar has prompted rice farmers to switch to alternative crops like corn and soybeans. The appreciation of the real makes exporting prices of goods on the upper side. Transportation and logistical challenges disrupted corn flow from farms to ports, worsening the price hike. Global demand from downstream industries and a rising Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in November, although below 50.0, signaled a softer deterioration in manufacturing conditions. Output and new orders showed softer deteriorations, while firms increased headcounts, business sentiment improved, and input costs rose for the first time in seven months. The ongoing trade dispute in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, as of December 2023, poses a broader threat to ships, regardless of their connection to Israel. Diverting ships from the Suez to the Cape of Good Hope added to global market uncertainty, potentially influencing Brazilian prices. Facing the continuous price surge, some farmers hesitated to sell their 2023 corn harvest, anticipating further price increases in the future. With this, the latest price of Maize (Corn) in Brazil for the current quarter is USD 227/MT in Brazil.
