Prices of White Oil (cosmetic grade) have increased by approximately 1% in the first half of October 2023 in the United States, with expectations of observing another 1% towards the beginning of November 2023, despite prices of upstream Crude Oil exhibiting severe fluctuations that are by declining by almost 4% in the first week of October before rebounding by another 3% in the third week of October.

Demand for White Oil (cosmetic grade) from the downstream skincare industry continued to increase as the winter months continued to near. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), temperatures across large parts of the United States continued to rapidly cool from the high average of 45 degrees Fahrenheit to 32 by the end of the second week of October. Moreover, abnormal precipitation patterns across the various parts of the United States continued to show erratic temperature readings, with several states such as California, Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona continuing to experience abnormally high temperatures, which kept the demand for White Oil (cosmetic grade) maintained. However, demand for White Oil (cosmetic grade) from the skincare industry also drastically strengthened as abnormal precipitations also led to various parts of the United States to experience abnormally cold temperatures, such as New York, Chicago, and Washington DC where temperatures plummeted by almost 10 degrees Fahrenheit in just two weeks.

In the face of strong demand with rising production costs due to rebounding prices of upstream Crude Oil, prices of White Oil are expected to escalate further. Moreover, interest increments are further expected as the Federal Bank continues to hike current interest rates by another 25 basis points, with PPI increasing by another 2% in September increments anticipated in October, which is likely to increase prices of White Oil (cosmetic grade). Current inflation rates across the United States stand at 3.7%, according to FRED, which was still above the target corridor. Increasing interest rates are most likely to raise factory gate and port charges as White Oil (cosmetic grade) is mostly imported into the United States from China.

Overall, prices of White Oil are expected to increase by almost 3% in the last quarter of 2023 as prices of Crude Oil are expected to escalate by almost 4% at the same time period. Demand for White Oil (cosmetic grade) from the downstream skincare industry is likely to reach its peak between December 2023 and January 2024, as purchasing sentiments are somewhat likely to improve during those festive months. Moreover, international exports to Canada are also likely to strengthen.