In 2024, the United States is poised for a significant expansion in its production capacity of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), marking a transformative shift in the aviation industry's fuel landscape. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), if all announced capacity additions come online as planned, SAF production could surge from approximately 2,000 barrels per day (bpd) to nearly 30,000 bpd by the end of the year.

This ambitious growth trajectory is underpinned by key projects such as Phillips 66’s Rodeo Renewed initiative and Diamond Green Diesel’s Port Arthur SAF project. Phillips 66 aims to ramp up SAF production to around 10,000 bpd starting this summer, while Diamond Green Diesel anticipates reaching approximately 15,000 bpd by year-end. These developments reflect a robust investment climate, bolstered by incentives from the US Environmental Protection Agency's Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), federal tax credits, and various state programs promoting the adoption of SAF.

The White House has also set a bold target of meeting 100% of US aviation fuel demand with SAF by 2050, underscoring a national commitment to sustainability in air travel. This vision is crucial as the demand for petroleum jet fuel in the US reached 1.6 million bpd in 2023 and is projected by the EIA to surpass 2 million bpd by 2050, as outlined in its 'Annual Energy Outlook' report.

Tracking SAF production falls under the EIA's 'Other Biofuels' category, which includes renewable heating oil, naphtha, propane, gasoline, and other emerging biofuels at various stages of development and commercialization. Historically, production in this category has been modest, but recent years have witnessed a notable uptick, especially with the rise of renewable diesel. From just 2,000 bpd in 2020, US production of Other Biofuels escalated to 19,000 bpd by 2023, driven largely by the by-products of renewable diesel production like renewable naphtha and propane.

At the start of 2024, US SAF production capacity was concentrated in only two facilities: World Energy’s plant in Paramount, California, and Montana Renewables’ facility in Great Falls, Montana. However, the landscape is rapidly evolving, with the EIA forecasting a 50% increase in Other Biofuels production for 2024 alone, with further doubling anticipated by 2025. This growth trajectory hinges significantly on the expansion of SAF production capacity, fueled by concurrent increases in renewable diesel production and its by-products.

Looking ahead, the EIA’s outlook underscores a transformative period for US biofuels, driven by technological advancements and a shifting regulatory landscape favoring sustainable alternatives. As the nation scales up its SAF capabilities, stakeholders across the aviation and energy sectors are poised to play pivotal roles in shaping a more sustainable future for air travel, aligning with broader national and global sustainability goals.

In summary, the imminent surge in US SAF production capacity represents not just a technological leap but a pivotal moment in reshaping the aviation industry's environmental footprint, supported by robust investment, regulatory incentives, and a shared commitment to a sustainable future.