For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
North American Jet Kerosene prices exhibited a mixed trend throughout Q3 2024. Prices surged in the first and final months of the quarter, driven by robust demand and fluctuating crude oil prices, while experiencing a dip in July. In the quarter's initial month, increased travel activity prompted U.S. airlines to expand capacity, offering approximately 6% more seats compared to July 2023. This expansion placed upward pressure on Jet Kerosene demand, reflecting a broader recovery in the aviation sector with significant growth in both leisure and business travel.
Similarly, prices surged again in September 2024, as jet fuel demand on the U.S. West Coast reached its highest level in four years during the first half of the year. However, the recovery in West Coast air travel has been slower, and improved aircraft efficiency has tempered fuel consumption.
Conversely, prices dipped in July, as reported by the Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). U.S. airlines consumed 1.686 billion gallons of fuel in August 2024, a 2.9% decrease from July’s 1.736 billion gallons.
APAC
In Q3 2024, Jet Kerosene prices in the Asian market showed mixed trends, surging in the first two months but declining in September, particularly in India. Prices initially rose due to several factors, including increased value-added tax (VAT) on aviation turbine fuel and higher airport fees, creating an inflationary environment that impacted airline operations. Strong demand, coupled with rising crude oil prices, further pressured airlines financially. Notably, India's diesel and jet kerosene exports to Singapore and Australia hit their highest levels in two and a half years, driven by weak demand from Europe, prompting Indian suppliers to shift focus to domestic markets. However, in September, Jet Kerosene prices dropped in line with falling crude oil prices, which exerted downward pressure on production costs. This decline was also influenced by fluctuating demand due to adverse weather conditions, including heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, which curtailed passenger activity and reduced flight operations. As weather improved later in the month, demand for Jet Kerosene gradually revived, highlighting the aviation sector's sensitivity to external factors. Overall, the pricing dynamics reflected a complex interplay of regulatory changes, supply shifts, and demand fluctuations. The latest quarter ending price of Jet Kerosene Ex-Mumbai was USD 1018/MT.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the European Jet Kerosene market exhibited modest performance, reflecting a nuanced interplay of supply and demand dynamics. In August, jet fuel inflows from the East of Suez into Europe experienced a notable increase. This uptick in supply is significant in light of the previously constrained market conditions. Additionally, the arbitrage opportunity from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe, which had been effectively closed since April due to rising domestic demand in the U.S., reopened during this quarter. Europe was poised to receive approximately 44,000 metric tons of jet fuel in August, further contributing to the supply landscape. While aviation demand remains relatively strong, it has not reached peak levels. Airlines have faced ongoing aircraft delivery issues, leading to capacity constraints that have ultimately limited the number of available seats for passengers. As a result, this operational challenge has led to a decline in passenger traffic, contributing to a more tempered market environment for Jet Kerosene in Europe during the quarter. Overall, the market's performance indicates a cautious optimism tempered by logistical challenges and fluctuating supply conditions.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
Throughout the second quarter of 2024, the prices of jet kerosene experienced a significant surge. Several factors contributed to this upward trend, including rising costs of essential raw materials, particularly crude oil, and a widening gap between demand and supply. The escalation in crude oil prices was driven by multiple factors, including tighter supply conditions and geopolitical uncertainties. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, along with drone attacks on Russian refineries, introduced considerable uncertainty into the oil market. These events heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions, leading to increased prices for crude oil and its derivatives, including jet kerosene.
Additionally, seasonal demand from the aviation sector further contributed to the price increase of jet kerosene. The summer season typically sees heightened aviation activity, and this trend was evident in April and May 2024. The US Independence Day holiday notably boosted demand for jet fuel, with the four-week seasonal average reaching its highest level since 2019, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
During the same period, US gasoline demand on a four-week average also saw an increase, achieving the highest level since the 2021 season. Concurrently, inventories of motor fuel fell to their lowest levels since May, reflecting the overall tightness in fuel supplies and further contributing to the rise in jet kerosene prices.
APAC
In the second quarter of 2024, the jet kerosene market in India experienced mixed trends, reflecting the complex interplay of supply and demand factors. In April, prices increased by 0.7% due to rising crude oil costs and heightened demand from the aviation sector. The surge in crude oil prices was fueled by geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah and drone attacks on Russian refineries, which created uncertainties about potential supply disruptions. These events led to increased prices for crude oil and its derivatives, including jet kerosene. The aviation sector also contributed to the upward pressure on prices. During April and May, there was a significant rise in aviation activity, driven by the summer travel season. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) consumption in India for the fiscal year 2024 reached 8.3 million tonnes, nearing the previous high of 8.2 million tonnes in fiscal year 2019. This increase was largely due to heightened air traffic within the country. However, the market dynamics shifted in June, leading to a 6.7% decline in jet kerosene prices. The demand for ATF decreased as aviation activity slowed. According to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), diesel consumption, a major indicator of fuel usage in India, fell by 5% month-on-month. This reduction in diesel consumption indicated a broader trend of reduced demand for refined products, contributing to the decline in jet kerosene prices. This period highlights the volatility of the market, where geopolitical events, seasonal demand shifts, and domestic consumption patterns all play critical roles in influencing price trends.
Europe
Throughout the second quarter of 2024, jet kerosene prices saw a notable surge due to several contributing factors. One of the primary drivers was the rising cost of crude oil, a crucial raw material, alongside an increasing disparity between demand and supply. The escalation in crude oil prices was influenced by various elements, including tighter supply conditions and geopolitical uncertainties. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as drone attacks on Russian refineries, introduced significant uncertainty into the oil market, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions. These events led to higher prices for crude oil and its derivatives, including jet kerosene. Additionally, the seasonal demand from the aviation sector played a significant role in driving up jet kerosene prices. The summer season is typically marked by increased aviation activity, and this trend was particularly evident in April and May 2024. As travel demand surged, so did the demand for jet fuel, further contributing to the upward pressure on prices. This period highlighted the interplay between geopolitical events, market dynamics, and seasonal trends in influencing fuel prices.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the North American Jet Kerosene market experienced significant volatility, particularly impacting the United States. Prices exhibited a downward trend in January 2024, followed by substantial increases throughout the remainder of the quarter.
According to data obtained from a fuel survey conducted by the Aviation Research Group, the average price of Jet-A fuel in the United States decreased by 24 cents per gallon in January compared to December 2023, with an average cost of $6.82 per gallon. This decline was reflective of the prevailing market conditions during that period. Furthermore, information released by the Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) revealed that U.S. scheduled service airlines utilized 1.456 billion gallons of fuel in January 2024, marking an 8.1% decrease compared to December 2023.
Despite this reduction in fuel consumption, prices continued to rise steadily throughout the subsequent months of the quarter. The fluctuations in crude oil prices played a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of Jet Kerosene prices. Notably, crude oil prices surged from $73 per barrel in January to $77 per barrel in February 2024, and further increased to $80 per barrel in March 2024. These fluctuations directly impacted Jet Kerosene production costs, necessitating adjustments in prices to align with market dynamics and maintain profitability for industry stakeholders.
APAC
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the Asian Jet Kerosene market witnessed volatility, notably affecting India. Prices surged by 11.3% in January and 0.2% in March but dipped by 2.2% in February. These fluctuations were driven by various factors. Firstly, the volatile international crude oil market, coupled with India's heavy reliance on imported crude oil, contributed to price hikes. Additionally, the imposition of value-added tax (VAT) on aviation turbine fuel (ATF) in January further added to expenses. Despite challenges, demand for aviation services in India surged, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, as indicated by data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). In March, diesel consumption in India rose significantly, reaching the second-highest consumption figure recorded in FY24, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). February saw a price dip, attributed to the relaxation of US sanctions on Venezuela, enabling Indian refineries to procure crude oil at more favourable rates. State-backed oil marketing companies (OMCs), like Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), responded proactively to market conditions, adjusting aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices to benefit domestic airlines in Delhi, thus influencing Jet Kerosene prices.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the European Jet Kerosene market experienced notable fluctuations. Prices started on a downward trend in January but then rose considerably for the rest of the quarter. The recent relaxation of US sanctions on Venezuela has presented European refiners with an opportunity to access cheaper Crude oil, potentially altering their import strategies. Moreover, the recent of concerns regarding supply disruptions from the Israel-Hamas conflict has allowed demand worries to take centre stage, further dampening the market sentiment. However, prices rose in February and March due to increased fuel consumption driven by higher transportation activity during Easter festivities. Additionally, fluctuations in crude oil prices significantly influenced Jet Kerosene prices. Crude oil prices notably surged from $73 per barrel in January to $77 per barrel in February 2024, and further increased to $80 per barrel in March 2024. These fluctuations directly impacted Jet Kerosene production costs, prompting price adjustments to adapt to market conditions and ensure profitability for industry stakeholders.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American region's Jet Kerosene market experienced a decline in the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily influenced by the persistent volatility in the global crude oil market.
The fluctuations in crude oil prices had a direct impact on Jet Kerosene production costs, leading to necessary price adjustments. November saw a notable drop in crude oil prices, decreasing from 86 USD/barrel to 79 USD/barrel within a month. Further, the recent easing of concerns related to supply disruptions from the Israel-Hamas conflict shifted the focus to demand worries, contributing to a further dampening of market sentiment. Consequently, the production cost for Jet Kerosene significantly decreased during this period.
Despite increased trading activities in the USA during November, particularly amidst the holiday season, prices remained subdued. International demand, especially from the Indian market, remained muted due to the availability of more economical imports. Additionally, the national average for a gallon of Jet-A fuel in December was $7.06, marking a 6-cent decrease compared to November's national average. This information is based on a fuel survey of U.S. Fixed Base Operators (FBOs) conducted by Aviation Research Group. The prices mentioned are retail and include all taxes and fees.
APAC
During the fourth quarter of 2023, the APAC region's Jet Kerosene market experienced a downward trajectory characterized by various factors that influenced prices. One significant factor was the continued volatility in the global crude oil market. Fluctuations in crude oil prices directly impacted the production costs of Jet Kerosene, leading to price adjustments. November witnessed a significant plunge in the feedstock Crude oil market where the prices drastically dropped from 86 USD/ barrel to 79 USD/barrel within a month. The recent easing of US sanctions on Venezuela has opened a door of opportunity for Indian refiners to access cheap Crude oil, potentially reshaping their import landscape. Moreover, the recent de-escalation of concerns regarding supply disruptions from the Israel-Hamas conflict has allowed demand worries to take centre stage, further dampening the market sentiment. As a ripple effect, the production cost for Jet Kerosene has declined during this timeframe to a great extent. Despite the increase in trading activities during November in India, the prices of Jet kerosene unexpectedly eased by a huge margin due to cheaper Venezuela imports. Additionally, as per the reports, following the Oil marketing companies (OMCs) including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation may reduce fuel prices soon. The price of Jet Kerosene Ex-Mumbai in India for the current quarter is USD 1145/MT.
Europe
During the fourth quarter of 2023, the European region's Jet Kerosene market experienced a downward trajectory characterized by various factors that influenced prices. One significant factor was the continued volatility in the global crude oil market. Fluctuations in crude oil prices directly impacted the production costs of Jet Kerosene, leading to price adjustments. November witnessed a significant plunge in the feedstock Crude oil market where the prices drastically dropped from 86 USD/ barrel to 79 USD/barrel within a month. Further, the recent easing of US sanctions on Venezuela has opened a door of opportunity for European refiners to access cheap Crude oil, potentially reshaping their import landscape. Moreover, the recent de-escalation of concerns regarding supply disruptions from the Israel-Hamas conflict has allowed demand worries to take centre stage, further dampening the market sentiment. As a ripple effect, the production cost for Jet Kerosene has declined during this timeframe to a great extent. However, a slight surge in demand was observed in November 2023 from the aviation sector amidst holiday season but rebel attacks in Red Sea had fuelled the situation again and allowed demand worries to take centre stage, further dampening the market sentiment.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
During the third quarter, the US Jet Kerosene prices experienced a significant rebound compared to the prices of the second quarter of 2023 under the influence of a surge in the production cost amid expensive feedstock Crude oil prices driving the US Jet Kerosene market. Moreover, the demand for Jet Kerosene surged during July as the announcement to pause the continuously rising interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve further promoted the economic activities that have supported the market values of Jet Kerosene during this timeframe. Interestingly, in August 2023, the US expanded its sanctions on Myanmar to include the Jet fuel sector to deprive the military regime of the resources it needs to carry out its airstrikes against civilians. Additionally, the surge in prices of Jet kerosene during September was attributed to a combination of supply-side concerns and operational challenges within the domestic market as on the supply side, issues at several refineries led to a reduction in domestic supply, while extreme heat further hampered the operations of these facilities which constrained the availability of Jet Kerosene, creating a firm and upward pressure on prices.
Asia
A significant hike in the prices of Jet Kerosene has been observed in the Indian market throughout the third quarter as compared to the second one of the years 2023 on the back of an excessive rise in the prices of feedstock Crude oil values. The actions taken by Russia and Saudi Arabia to cut upstream oil production, affected the Jet kerosene market to remain at a higher end. Hence, the tightening global oil market simultaneously affected the supplies of Jet Kerosene to put upward pressure on the prices during July. Followed by the recent tie-up of PM Modi with the former USCIRF commissioner in July brought positivity to the aviation market of the US and India during the third quarter. Moreover, the recovery of air travel boosted the demand fundamentals of Jet Kerosene to showcase an uptrend as the prices skyrocketed during August in the Indian market. Additionally, the depreciation of the Indian rupee by -0.32% against the US dollar during September has played a significant role in these price hikes, as it affects the cost of importing Jet fuel.
Europe
During the third quarter, tables have turned in terms of the price trend of Jet Kerosene in the European market amid the supply curtailment of Jet Kerosene from the exporting countries along with the surge in the production cost. The broader energy market context played a pivotal role in the Jet kerosene market, with oil prices rising due to the extended production cuts by major oil-producing nations like Saudi Arabia and Russia which have heightened market anxieties to showcase a surge in the production of Jet Kerosene. Moreover, the storm near the Atlantic Basin tumbled the supplies of Jet Kerosene and accelerated the prices further during July. During August, the European refineries were producing less Jet fuel due to Western sanctions on Russian crude and feedstocks which was causing logistical issues and bottlenecks in alternative supply lines. As a ripple effect, some refineries have resorted to lower throughput and reduced runs during September. Moreover, Jet fuel has also struggled to secure placements on the CEPS pipeline, which is used to transport products from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp supply and logistics hub down to inland Germany and Switzerland.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
During the second quarter, the overall Jet Kerosene market in the US contracted as compared to the first quarter, which was demand driven. US Jet Kerosene prices were normalizing in the first quarter, including April showing decreasing trend after Russia-Invaded Ukraine. During May, the demand excited to its highest level since December 2019 due to the increasing demand for Oil. Moreover, a sharper-than-expected drop in US gasoline inventories reported by US Energy Information Administration affected the supply chain of Jet Kerosene, resulting in booming prices. The prominent demand for transport fuels boosted the US economy's travel sentiment and influenced the prices to hover around USD 2.238 per gal US Gulf Coast Kerosene during the end of May. However, jet fuel (ATF) rates were cut by 7 percent in June due to softening international oil prices. Volatility in Jet Kerosene prices influenced airline ticket prices due to labor shortages and aircraft delivery delays.
Asia
During the second quarter, India's overall Jet Kerosene market significantly declined compared to the first quarter. A Downtrend of Jet Kerosene prices in India was observed for another quarter of 2023 due to feeble demand from the downstream aviation sector. The global sector has been planning for alternative fuel, influencing the product's demand. However, Indian producers have not faced any difficulties during production, amid sufficient inventories supporting the market demand. Product supplies were stable enough throughout the quarter in the domestic market, influencing the prices to show a downtrend. Furthermore, reducing feedstock crude oil prices and depraved production costs amongst the traders resulted in a feeble price trend. As per the market analysis, the muted demand fundamentals and weak international trading activity has influenced the prices to hover around USD 1017.66 per tonne Jet Kerosene Ex-Mumbai, during the end of May 2023. As per the industry data, India's Manufacturing PMI dropped from 58.7 (May) to 57.7 (June).
Europe
During the second quarter of 2023, Europe's overall Jet Kerosene market significantly dropped compared with the first quarter. As per the data, Production in Industry-Manufacturing in Greece fell by 131 (March) to 124.5 (April). On April 25, 2023, European Lawmakers and member state governments announced boosting the use of "green aviation fuel" to reduce carbon emissions. The French president pledged on June 16 to invest 328 million dollars/year in the development of sustainable fuels, which had hampered the supply chain of Jet Kerosene. This has affected the overall demand for Jet Kerosene amongst traders, as airlines seek to ensure to meet their needs, which has resulted in driving up the prices. In order to boost the consumption of SAFs, the government has also provided tax credits and other subsidies. As per IATA, fuel price in Europe has increased by over 115% in the last 12 months. Moreover, the prices of Jet Kerosene were heavily driven by uncertain feedstock crude oil prices.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The Jet Kerosene market in the United States was bearish in the first quarter of 2023 due to low demand and abundant supply, causing prices to fall. The decreased trading activity was caused by plentiful supply and weaker offers for non-premium spot cargoes. Due to the decline in spot trading, suppliers were forced to buy only what was required. Because the market fundamentals were weak, there were no firm bids or offers during this period. The downstream solvent market's demand for Jet Kerosene fell due to slow market offtakes and limited trade activity. The US market was marked by uncertainty, which negatively impacted the trading atmosphere.
APAC
The price of Jet Kerosene in India was on the lower side in the quarter ending March 2023 due to weak demand from the downstream aviation sector and a lack of consumer purchasing sentiment. The market participants remained cautious and maintained a bearish price trend due to the competitive market situation and high stock volumes. The supply of Jet Kerosene was moderate to high, with a high volume of inventories in warehouses and lower jet fuel offers. The demand for Jet Kerosene was modest. The downward price movement throughout March was caused by the slump in downstream demand from the aviation sector and competitive pressure in the market.
Europe
Jet Kerosene prices in Europe were constant throughout the first quarter of 2023. This was owing to unchanged demand from downstream firms with no major supply interruptions. The supply-to-demand ratio remained stable in January, resulting in only a minor price increase. The market was marked by low demand and insufficient supply, resulting in a negative price trajectory in the first quarter of 2023. Despite recent price cuts, product demand from downstream industries has remained negative due to the global economic slowdown. The European market's purchasing activity remained reasonably constant in the first quarter, with no noteworthy changes amidst the global economic slowdown.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Jet Kerosene prices in the American market rose during the start of Q4 2022 as the demand from the aviation sector in the US started to rise. Steady improvement in the percentage of seating being filled with passengers in the US during Q4 2022 abetted the price hike of the Jet kerosene in the US. The rising inflation rates in the country further contributed to the rising price trend of Jet kerosene in the American market. However, the cost of American Jet Kerosene started to decline while nearing the end of Q4 2022 as severe winter storms affected the performance of the downstream aviation sector during the year's end.
APAC
The price of Jet Kerosene in Asian markets witnessed a hike during the start of Q4 2022 due to the strong demand from the downstream aviation sector. Despite numerous setbacks in Asian markets during Q4 2022, like the poor economic situation in China, the Asian aviation sector's strong performance increased the price of Jet Kerosene. The increased price trend for Jet kerosene in Asian countries was significantly influenced by the rising number of Covid related restrictions in China. Jet Kerosene costs decreased toward the end of Q4 2022 as upstream crude oil costs decreased in Asian markets.
Europe
Prices for jet kerosene increased in several European markets towards the beginning of Q4 2022 as the downstream aviation industry started to experience increased demand. The price increase of Jet kerosene in Europe was due to the resilience of the European aviation sector despite several setbacks in Europe during Q4 2022. The nation's rising inflation rates in several countries played a significant role in the upward price trend for Jet kerosene in the Europe region. During the end of Q4 2022, the price of Jet Kerosene prices dropped along with easing upstream crude oil costs in Europe.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The price of Jet Kerosene grew in the US during the third quarter of 2022. In comparison to other locations, North America, where 39% of the world's jet kerosene is used, had the highest jet kerosene pricing. Several refineries in the US shifted to fuel and diesel from Jet Kerosene, and the turnaround happened at a slow pace assisting the rise of JET Kerosene prices in the US during Q3 2022. The solid performance of the downstream aviation sector owing to the strong demand in the summer season further contributed to the rising price trend of Jet Kerosene in the US during Q3 2022.
APAC
The price of Jet Kerosene in the Indian market dropped throughout the entire third quarter of 2022 as the prices reached a record level high before Q3 in India. The JET Kerosene prices dropped during the entire third quarter as no one was willing to procure the commodity at such high costs and the prices had to be brought down despite fluctuating upstream crude prices in the Indian market. The price of JET kerosene in India during the end of Q3 2022 was recorded at around INR 120560/MT. The new ATF pricing method implemented in India during Q3 abetted the easing trend of Jet Kerosene in the Indian market.
Europe
Jet Kerosene prices in Europe increased through the third quarter of 2022 as the ongoing war in the Eastern European region has been increasing the upstream crude oil prices in European regions. The rising energy costs in European markets have also contributed to the Jet Kerosene price hike in Europe during Q3 2022. Numerous flights were canceled due to labor or component shortages and strikes, forcing some airports to implement European capacity restrictions. The above-mentioned difficulties of the downstream aviation sector did not bring down the prices of Jet Kerosene in Europe because of the steady demand from end-users to travel during the summer seasons.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
Jet Kerosene's price in the US increased throughout the Second quarter of 2022. The Jet Kerosene prices were highest in North America compared to other regions, where it accounts for 39% of global Jet Kerosene usage. Jet kerosene crack spread to upstream crude remained high compared to historical norms due to capacity constraints in refineries assisting the price hike of Jet Kerosene during Q2 2022. The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine kept the brent crude oil high assisting in the rising price of Jet Kerosene in the American market. The high demand from the downstream aviation sector also contributed to the rise of Jet Kerosene prices in the US.
APAC
In the Indian market, the prices of Jet Kerosene raised with high percentage hikes on a month-on-month basis throughout the second quarter of 2022. Since imports meet 85% of Indian aviation fuel requirements, the international supply disruption brought by the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine raised the Jet Kerosene prices in India. The Benchmark price of Upstream brent crude oil reached the highest value in over a decade during Q2 2022, contributing to price hikes of Jet Kerosene costs in the Indian market. In China, due to various cities and regions having been under lockdown to curb the resurgence of Covid cases, the demand from the downstream aviation sector dropped, and the price of Jet Kerosene declined during Q2 2022.
Europe
In Europe, many refineries have reported strong refining results during the second quarter of 2022, owing to the solid margins and rising demand for locally refined fuel. Since several European countries have sanctioned a ban on imports of Russian oil and gas, the rise in demand for locally produced fuel increased Jet Kerosene prices in Europe. The high cost of upstream Crude oil in Europe owing to the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine during Q2 2022 contributed to price hikes of Jet Kerosene in the European market. During the end of Q2 2022, the demand rose drastically from the downstream aviation sector, further increasing the price of Jet Kerosene in the European market.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
Jet Kerosene prices witnessed an upward trajectory on the back of high upstream crude oil prices owing to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine during the first quarter of 2022. Limited supply of Jet Kerosene because of unexpected refinery outage in the Exxon’s Bayfield facility in December 2021. Jet kerosene was in high demand in the downstream airline industries, American airlines CEO Doug Parked stated that the industry has hit a one-day record high revenue, during Q1 of 2022. In fact, they had two days with 15% of higher revenues as compared to any previous days contributing to the upward price trend of jet kerosene in the American market. Jet Kerosene prices in the USA increased by over 6% in Q1 2022.
Asia Pacific
Jet Kerosene prices in the Indian market were recorded at USD 776/MT in March 2022. Jet Kerosene prices have been on a rise ever since the downstream aviation sector returned to their full operation increasing the demand for Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF). High prices of the upstream Crude oil due to the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine elevated Jet Kerosene values. One of the Airline executives stated that the booking in domestic air travel for leisure has been on a rise in India this quarter abetting the increase in demand of Jet kerosene in the domestic market.
Europe
Prices of jet kerosene in the European market was on an upward track and rising on the back of high upstream crude oil and natural gas prices on account of Russian-Ukraine war. The price hike in the European market is subtle as compared to other markets as the downstream airline industry suffered from low activity owing to the conflict in the East European region during the first quarter of 2022. Despite relatively lower demand the price was an upward trend owing to the disrupted trade of upstream crude oil due to the ban on imports of Russian crude and oil by various European countries. Jet Kerosine prices in Europe increased by nearly 3% in Q1 2022.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
The US Jet Kerosene prices were higher during Q4 of FY21 compared to the previous quarter owing to higher upstream crude prices. The prices for Q4 were on an average 15% higher than the Q3 levels. The average prices hovered around USD 2.14/Gallon assessed on an FOB US Gulf basis. The prices reached an annual high of USD 2.31/Gallon by the second week of October but then slowly tapered off due to fading demand by the end of December. Unplanned refinery outages during the month of December like Exxon’s Baytown facility will likely thwart supply for the first quarter of FY22. The spot export prices are set to rebound in the new year too as supply side shortages combined with increased demand from Europe could help boost the US side of the arbitrage in the coming weeks. Refiner margins may not improve by much during Q1 of FY22 as WTI crude prices are expected to rise sharply during the peak winter season as demand for heating fuel increases. Demand from the Aviation sector may improve if the pandemic does not play spoil sport.
Asia
Asian Jet Fuel demand picked up by mid-November FY21 as cash premiums improved to 45 cents/b on an FOB Singapore basis, almost triple the value at the start of the month indicating increased activity from the aviation sector. The cash differential increased to as high as 75 cents/b by the third week of December, while refining margins reduced to 11.52 USD/b over Dubai crude indicating a strong increase in demand from the Aviation sector. Indian Jet Kerosene prices on an average increased by 13% from the Q3 levels during Q4 of FY21 assessed on an Ex-Mumbai basis as demand revived by October as number of passengers travelling by air had increased by 70% according to DGCA on account of subsiding pandemic affect and loosened restrictions on both international and domestic travel. India’s Jet fuel consumption too reached a nineteen-month high in October. The demand is likely to increase in the new year although global airlines are keeping a close watch on the impact that the new wave of pandemic is likely to have on the aviation sector in the coming months.
Europe
European Jet fuel imports had risen to an annual high during the month of October but then slowly tapered off in the next two months owing to lowered demand. Over one million tons of Jet fuel stocks have arrived at Europe from Asia and the Middle East according to data from Refinitiv. Stocks in Antwerp-Rotterdam-Amsterdam reserves for December were assessed at 4% lower than the previous year levels in December. Over 650000 tons of Jet fuel is scheduled to arrive at Europe from Asia and the Middle East in the month of January. Refiners in Europe had been prioritizing diesel over Jet fuel over the last three months of FY21. The trend is, however, expected to change in the new year with refiner margins expected to rise to USD 20/MT vis-à-vis the brent crude prices and the margins are expected to go lower during the first half of FY22 before bottoming out in June. January also might witness diversion of Asian Jet fuel cargoes destined towards US to be diverted to Europe amidst surge in demand.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
In the North American region, U.S. refiners witnessed higher earnings during the third quarter owing to the improvement in margins to sell gasoline and diesel despite the surging cost and low inventories of crude oil. Energy demand recovered rapidly from the worst days of the pandemic in 2020, and Brent and U.S. crude oil prices reached multi-year highs in Q3 2021. As Jet fuel demand is still not up to pre-pandemic levels, market players eyed on resumption in international flights to Europe in November.
Asia
The Asian market of Jet Kerosene showcased mixed sentiments during the third quarter of 2021. An improvement in industrial activities was observed in Q3 which pushed up the global aviation sector including India. Despite the fact that the aviation sector of India gained momentum in the 3rd quarter after battling with the second wave of COVID devastation, prices of Jet kerosene fluctuated in a narrow range. In addition, domestic manufacturers halted their production under the fear of the third wave of COVID-19 and to improve the preserve margins. Jet Kerosene prices in India improved during the second half of August and eventually settled at USD 627 per MT in September.
Europe
The overall demand in the European region remained well supported in Q3 2021. Despite concerns over the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant, key oil-based transportation fuels got closer to pre-pandemic levels due to the reopening of global economy. While the demand for jet fuel struggled back amid global travel curbs, gasoline and diesel sales showed a sharp rebound. Travel optimism with improved vaccination rate in Europe provided support to jet fuel/kerosene pricing in Q3.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
Rapid recovery from pandemic after successful vaccination drive increased Jet Kerosene consumption across North America during this quarter. Post this rise, an effective rebound in prices of Jet Kerosene was also observed in USA, where prices consistently traced upward trajectory, as the US government steadily lifted international travel ban. In addition, rising crude values also exacerbated this price hike, where USA faced difficulties due to sudden hike in demand amid rising upstream cost. Primarily, increase in consumption from domestic aviation sector increased the prices of Jet Kerosene from USD 545/MT to USD 607/MT during April-June timeframe.
Asia
Asian Jet Kerosene consumption varied country over country during this quarter. China witnessed a steep rise in domestic Jet Kerosene consumption during Q2 2021, backed by recovery in economic activities and relaxation of national and international travel ban. Meanwhile in India, a steep decline in consumption of Jet Fuel was observed during this timeframe, due to sudden implementation of COVID restrictions amid second wave of pandemic in the country. However, prices kept on rising, under international pressure. Therefore, the prices of Jet Kerosene rose from USD 967.6/MT to USD 1072.2/MT during this quarter in India.
Europe
Europe also witnessed a steep rebound in prices of Jet Kerosene during this quarter, backed by recovery in consumption by regional aviation sector. European governments relaxed travel bans from the people inoculated with COVID vaccine. These decisions were taken to kick start the domestic aviation sector, which faced devastation since last year due to pandemic. In addition, rising crude oil values also supported the overall price trajectory in this timeframe.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
Jet Kerosene demand were observed improving consistently compared to the prior quarter in North America, as international flights stated taking off with the economic rebound. Although the demand for Jet Kerosene from the aviation sector was observed to be low initially during January, but rapid vaccination roll out brought overall improvement in the demand. Varying with consistent demand from the aviation sector, the price of Jet Kerosene rose from USD 972.5/MT in January to USD 1197/MT in March, although lower output from the US gulf coast amidst winter disruption also contributed to this rise.
Asia
Jet Kerosene demand from Asian countries varied with the recovery of the aviation sector amid COVID 19 crisis. Aviation sector of China was expected to rise but was observed to be way below the pre-pandemic levels, prompting Jet Kerosene manufacturers to look towards export markets as the domestic demand remained unreasonably low. On the other side, demand for Jet Kerosene from the Indian aviation sector showed a healthy improvement which supported the prices of Jet Kerosene across the country. The price of Jet Kerosene in India rose by 9.9% within the quarter, backed by recovery in the crude values.
Europe
Another wave of COVID 19, fresh lockdown restrictions and slower pace of vaccination halted the improvement of the European aviation sector during Q1 2021. It was observed that the operations turned lower than the prior quarter due to fresh restrictions over several economies. Hence the demand for Jet Kerosene from the aviation sector remained low initially, pushing Jet Kerosene values to undue stability. Although demand is expected to show improvement as UK has announced to resume international travel from early May.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
Asia
The Asian Jet Kerosene market values edged higher in Q3 of 2020 on pickup in demand for heating oil Kerosene ahead of the winter season. But with travelling season in major global economies coming to an end, the market ended up with lull demand by the end of September. While stock piling due to seasonal shortage temporarily eased off the downward pressure on weak margins of Jet Kerosene, a meaningful rebound is anticipated to take at least a year due to uncertainties over travel activities. To secure profit amidst tepid demand, manufacturers are anticipated to blend excess jet cargoes into alternate fuel pools till 2021.
North America
Market fundamentals of Jet Kerosene in North America observed unprecedented recovery in comparison to other regions because of the higher domestic travel activities. With the travelling season marking an end by September, the demand is likely to stagnate for several months on reduced commercial travelling. Refiners are expecting further boost in recovery by the last quarter with high hopes of increment in the international travel activities as coronavirus cases have plateaued in many economies after surpassing the peak.
Europe
The European Jet Kerosene market witnessed dented demand in Q3 as resurgence in coronavirus cases aggravated the global travel restrictions. Surplus cargoes amidst lull demand has continued to exacerbate the supply side crisis. With consumption pattern primarily related to growth in travelling pattern, the demand is likely to stay muted with extended restrictions in international travel activities on fears of second wave of coronavirus across the globe.
