For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American Jet Kerosene market experienced significant price fluctuations. During the initial two months of the quarter, prices surged due to heightened demand from the aviation sector. Increased travel and airline activity placed pressure on refiners, unable to fully meet the rising demand.
Geopolitical tensions also contributed to higher crude oil prices, which further impacted Jet Kerosene pricing. Moreover, insights from market participants indicated that airfares had not fully kept pace with inflation, particularly in comparison to the rising costs of jet fuel.
By December 2024, however, Jet Kerosene prices saw a slight decline. This was attributed to moderate fluctuations in crude oil prices and sufficient supply, with traders having strategically stockpiled inventories. Anticipating a dip in aviation demand post-holiday season, inventories helped stabilize the market. The decline in prices was expected to continue as reduced consumption during the festive period led to lower demand for Jet Kerosene, signaling further price adjustments in the coming months.
Asia-Pacific
In Q4 2024, Jet Kerosene prices in the Asian market exhibited upward trends, driven by robust demand and shifting supply dynamics. In India, prices rose by 1.4% in December, despite fluctuating crude oil prices, due to strong aviation fuel demand. This was reflected in a 6.8% year-on-year increase in Air Traffic Fuel (ATF) sales, supported by a 5.2% month-on-month rise compared to November. The demand surge, coupled with stable feedstock costs, tightened the supply-demand balance in the Indian market, signaling continued pressure on prices. During November, Jet Kerosene prices also increased, fueled by higher export demand from key Asian markets such as Singapore and Malaysia, where imports of Indian jet fuel reached multi-year highs. This demand spike, combined with strategic export diversions and rising domestic consumption, put upward pressure on prices. India’s consumption reached historic levels, driven by peak air travel during the holiday season. Despite lower crude oil prices, India’s position as a critical supplier in Asia, bolstered by strategic adjustments and increasing exports, helped stabilize the regional market. These trends, alongside strong consumption patterns and global supply chain shifts, suggest that Jet Kerosene prices in Asia are likely to remain elevated in the short term.
Europe
The European Jet Kerosene market faced challenging conditions in the final quarter of 2024, driven by several key factors. A notable increase in supply from Middle Eastern and Indian refineries contributed to the shift in market dynamics. According to Eurostat data, EU jet fuel demand showed a slight year-on-year rise of 0.7% from January to July 2024, indicating a steady yet subdued demand. As a result, the price premium for northwest European jet fuel over Singaporean jet fuel reached its narrowest point in three years, prompting a shift in trade flows. In recent months, European jet fuel has been increasingly shipped to Asia, with Singaporean prices surpassing European levels by late November. Despite these developments, market participants remain optimistic about the European supply outlook. They do not anticipate any significant tightness in the supply of jet fuel in the region, as increased refinery capacity and stable demand are expected to balance out market conditions moving forward. While pricing trends have become more aligned with Asian markets, Europe’s jet fuel market remains stable, with no major concerns of shortages expected in the near term.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
North American Jet Kerosene prices exhibited a mixed trend throughout Q3 2024. Prices surged in the first and final months of the quarter, driven by robust demand and fluctuating crude oil prices, while experiencing a dip in July. In the quarter's initial month, increased travel activity prompted U.S. airlines to expand capacity, offering approximately 6% more seats compared to July 2023. This expansion placed upward pressure on Jet Kerosene demand, reflecting a broader recovery in the aviation sector with significant growth in both leisure and business travel.
Similarly, prices surged again in September 2024, as jet fuel demand on the U.S. West Coast reached its highest level in four years during the first half of the year. However, the recovery in West Coast air travel has been slower, and improved aircraft efficiency has tempered fuel consumption.
Conversely, prices dipped in July, as reported by the Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). U.S. airlines consumed 1.686 billion gallons of fuel in August 2024, a 2.9% decrease from July’s 1.736 billion gallons.
APAC
In Q3 2024, Jet Kerosene prices in the Asian market showed mixed trends, surging in the first two months but declining in September, particularly in India. Prices initially rose due to several factors, including increased value-added tax (VAT) on aviation turbine fuel and higher airport fees, creating an inflationary environment that impacted airline operations. Strong demand, coupled with rising crude oil prices, further pressured airlines financially. Notably, India's diesel and jet kerosene exports to Singapore and Australia hit their highest levels in two and a half years, driven by weak demand from Europe, prompting Indian suppliers to shift focus to domestic markets. However, in September, Jet Kerosene prices dropped in line with falling crude oil prices, which exerted downward pressure on production costs. This decline was also influenced by fluctuating demand due to adverse weather conditions, including heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, which curtailed passenger activity and reduced flight operations. As weather improved later in the month, demand for Jet Kerosene gradually revived, highlighting the aviation sector's sensitivity to external factors. Overall, the pricing dynamics reflected a complex interplay of regulatory changes, supply shifts, and demand fluctuations. The latest quarter ending price of Jet Kerosene Ex-Mumbai was USD 1018/MT.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the European Jet Kerosene market exhibited modest performance, reflecting a nuanced interplay of supply and demand dynamics. In August, jet fuel inflows from the East of Suez into Europe experienced a notable increase. This uptick in supply is significant in light of the previously constrained market conditions. Additionally, the arbitrage opportunity from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Europe, which had been effectively closed since April due to rising domestic demand in the U.S., reopened during this quarter. Europe was poised to receive approximately 44,000 metric tons of jet fuel in August, further contributing to the supply landscape. While aviation demand remains relatively strong, it has not reached peak levels. Airlines have faced ongoing aircraft delivery issues, leading to capacity constraints that have ultimately limited the number of available seats for passengers. As a result, this operational challenge has led to a decline in passenger traffic, contributing to a more tempered market environment for Jet Kerosene in Europe during the quarter. Overall, the market's performance indicates a cautious optimism tempered by logistical challenges and fluctuating supply conditions.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
Throughout the second quarter of 2024, the prices of jet kerosene experienced a significant surge. Several factors contributed to this upward trend, including rising costs of essential raw materials, particularly crude oil, and a widening gap between demand and supply. The escalation in crude oil prices was driven by multiple factors, including tighter supply conditions and geopolitical uncertainties. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, along with drone attacks on Russian refineries, introduced considerable uncertainty into the oil market. These events heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions, leading to increased prices for crude oil and its derivatives, including jet kerosene.
Additionally, seasonal demand from the aviation sector further contributed to the price increase of jet kerosene. The summer season typically sees heightened aviation activity, and this trend was evident in April and May 2024. The US Independence Day holiday notably boosted demand for jet fuel, with the four-week seasonal average reaching its highest level since 2019, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
During the same period, US gasoline demand on a four-week average also saw an increase, achieving the highest level since the 2021 season. Concurrently, inventories of motor fuel fell to their lowest levels since May, reflecting the overall tightness in fuel supplies and further contributing to the rise in jet kerosene prices.
APAC
In the second quarter of 2024, the jet kerosene market in India experienced mixed trends, reflecting the complex interplay of supply and demand factors. In April, prices increased by 0.7% due to rising crude oil costs and heightened demand from the aviation sector. The surge in crude oil prices was fueled by geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah and drone attacks on Russian refineries, which created uncertainties about potential supply disruptions. These events led to increased prices for crude oil and its derivatives, including jet kerosene. The aviation sector also contributed to the upward pressure on prices. During April and May, there was a significant rise in aviation activity, driven by the summer travel season. Aviation turbine fuel (ATF) consumption in India for the fiscal year 2024 reached 8.3 million tonnes, nearing the previous high of 8.2 million tonnes in fiscal year 2019. This increase was largely due to heightened air traffic within the country. However, the market dynamics shifted in June, leading to a 6.7% decline in jet kerosene prices. The demand for ATF decreased as aviation activity slowed. According to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), diesel consumption, a major indicator of fuel usage in India, fell by 5% month-on-month. This reduction in diesel consumption indicated a broader trend of reduced demand for refined products, contributing to the decline in jet kerosene prices. This period highlights the volatility of the market, where geopolitical events, seasonal demand shifts, and domestic consumption patterns all play critical roles in influencing price trends.
Europe
Throughout the second quarter of 2024, jet kerosene prices saw a notable surge due to several contributing factors. One of the primary drivers was the rising cost of crude oil, a crucial raw material, alongside an increasing disparity between demand and supply. The escalation in crude oil prices was influenced by various elements, including tighter supply conditions and geopolitical uncertainties. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, as well as drone attacks on Russian refineries, introduced significant uncertainty into the oil market, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions. These events led to higher prices for crude oil and its derivatives, including jet kerosene. Additionally, the seasonal demand from the aviation sector played a significant role in driving up jet kerosene prices. The summer season is typically marked by increased aviation activity, and this trend was particularly evident in April and May 2024. As travel demand surged, so did the demand for jet fuel, further contributing to the upward pressure on prices. This period highlighted the interplay between geopolitical events, market dynamics, and seasonal trends in influencing fuel prices.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the North American Jet Kerosene market experienced significant volatility, particularly impacting the United States. Prices exhibited a downward trend in January 2024, followed by substantial increases throughout the remainder of the quarter.
According to data obtained from a fuel survey conducted by the Aviation Research Group, the average price of Jet-A fuel in the United States decreased by 24 cents per gallon in January compared to December 2023, with an average cost of $6.82 per gallon. This decline was reflective of the prevailing market conditions during that period. Furthermore, information released by the Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) revealed that U.S. scheduled service airlines utilized 1.456 billion gallons of fuel in January 2024, marking an 8.1% decrease compared to December 2023.
Despite this reduction in fuel consumption, prices continued to rise steadily throughout the subsequent months of the quarter. The fluctuations in crude oil prices played a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of Jet Kerosene prices. Notably, crude oil prices surged from $73 per barrel in January to $77 per barrel in February 2024, and further increased to $80 per barrel in March 2024. These fluctuations directly impacted Jet Kerosene production costs, necessitating adjustments in prices to align with market dynamics and maintain profitability for industry stakeholders.
APAC
Throughout the first quarter of 2024, the Asian Jet Kerosene market witnessed volatility, notably affecting India. Prices surged by 11.3% in January and 0.2% in March but dipped by 2.2% in February. These fluctuations were driven by various factors. Firstly, the volatile international crude oil market, coupled with India's heavy reliance on imported crude oil, contributed to price hikes. Additionally, the imposition of value-added tax (VAT) on aviation turbine fuel (ATF) in January further added to expenses. Despite challenges, demand for aviation services in India surged, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, as indicated by data from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). In March, diesel consumption in India rose significantly, reaching the second-highest consumption figure recorded in FY24, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC). February saw a price dip, attributed to the relaxation of US sanctions on Venezuela, enabling Indian refineries to procure crude oil at more favourable rates. State-backed oil marketing companies (OMCs), like Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), responded proactively to market conditions, adjusting aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices to benefit domestic airlines in Delhi, thus influencing Jet Kerosene prices.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the European Jet Kerosene market experienced notable fluctuations. Prices started on a downward trend in January but then rose considerably for the rest of the quarter. The recent relaxation of US sanctions on Venezuela has presented European refiners with an opportunity to access cheaper Crude oil, potentially altering their import strategies. Moreover, the recent of concerns regarding supply disruptions from the Israel-Hamas conflict has allowed demand worries to take centre stage, further dampening the market sentiment. However, prices rose in February and March due to increased fuel consumption driven by higher transportation activity during Easter festivities. Additionally, fluctuations in crude oil prices significantly influenced Jet Kerosene prices. Crude oil prices notably surged from $73 per barrel in January to $77 per barrel in February 2024, and further increased to $80 per barrel in March 2024. These fluctuations directly impacted Jet Kerosene production costs, prompting price adjustments to adapt to market conditions and ensure profitability for industry stakeholders.
