The global natural gas markets are in massive volatility as of mid-April 2025, and the US and Germany are both impacted. With production rates, export operations, and infrastructure coming into production, both huge markets are facing special challenges and opportunities. Trend observations overall for this timeframe indicate the way price movement in these markets is affecting the overall energy picture.

In the US, mid-April was marked by a sharp decline in natural gas prices, due to a mix of increased domestic production and light weather. The production level continued to be high, keeping supplies over demand and reducing the pressure on natural gas prices to increase. With the moderate demand across the country, the rapid growth in LNG exports acted as a balancing factor, keeping the price level at lower rates.

Perhaps most significantly at this time was the impact of in-home storage injections. Natural gas in storage was sufficiently supplied in the U.S. as of mid-April, which mitigated further supply disruptions. As such, the market saw further price drops, especially in primary production hubs like Texas and Louisiana. Ongoing export of LNG to Europe, in addition to a steady supply overhang, continued to have U.S. natural gas prices declining throughout mid-April, reducing cost pressures on consumers and businesses alike.

Mid-April natural gas supply in Germany was subject to competing pressures. Natural gas prices continued falling, driven by tight supply via a combination of LNG imports and storage filled. Yet, unlike the USA, underutilization hit Germany's natural gas infrastructure, with LNG terminals operating below-capacity. Below-forecast residential heat demand, and low-volume industrial usage, maintained supply well-supplied and prices on a consistent downtrend.

The mid-April European market also saw an excess of LNG, primarily in the form of U.S. exports. Although there was less reliance on Russian gas, the German natural gas market was also being supported by better geopolitical events and the steady move towards diversified sources of energy. Thus, the natural gas price fall was evident, but full capacity utilization of Germany's LNG facilities is a possibility, and that has the potential to direct price action if demand is high in the future.

The U.S. market will remain in a downward price path throughout the second half of April, looking at the continued run-up in production and consistent LNG export levels. Demand for natural gas remains weak due to moderate weather, and absent high volatility in export demand.

In Germany, stable prices will continue to be visible in the market, while the issue of LNG infrastructure underutilization persists. If storage is saturated and soft consumption persists, the German market will be in equilibrium. The big contribution of U.S. LNG imports will likely continue to be a price-supporting factor, but the direction of future price movements will be determined largely by the ability to optimize LNG terminal utilization and any unforeseen movement in demand.