For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, natural gas prices in the U.S. experienced a clear upward trend, primarily driven by strong demand, supply constraints, and geopolitical factors. As colder weather approached, heating demand surged, particularly in the residential and commercial sectors, further tightening an already strained market.
Increased consumption for heating combined with a rise in LNG exports to international markets, especially Europe and Mexico, added significant upward pressure. Meanwhile, production levels remained somewhat stable, although slight declines in natural gas production in key regions, such as the Permian Basin, limited supply growth. Supply-side constraints, including pipeline maintenance in certain regions, exacerbated the situation.
Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in relation to Russian gas supplies, increased demand for U.S. LNG, further driving prices higher. The storage situation also contributed to price fluctuations, with levels remaining above average but the potential for demand shocks in extreme weather conditions creating volatility. As a result, natural gas prices saw a consistent increase throughout the quarter, reflecting a tightening balance between supply and demand, especially with higher exports and growing consumption expectations.
APAC
In Q4 2024, natural gas prices in the APAC region, particularly in China, experienced a notable upward trend, driven by a combination of increasing demand, supply constraints, and evolving energy market dynamics. China's strategic stockpiling efforts, aimed at securing adequate reserves for winter, contributed to a tight domestic supply, despite rising imports. This heightened demand, particularly from the industrial, heating, and residential sectors, led to significant price increases. The country’s natural gas consumption grew rapidly due to the ongoing switch from coal to gas and the expansion of infrastructure, including the completion of key pipelines like the East-Route pipeline from Russia. Additionally, as winter approached, demand surged for heating purposes, especially in urban areas, which further pushed up prices.
Meanwhile, China’s growing reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, coupled with limited domestic production capacity, heightened competition for global supplies. Russia’s increased gas flows through the Power of Siberia pipeline provided some relief but still left the market under pressure. Overall, natural gas prices in China saw steady increases through the quarter, reflecting the tightening global market and the country’s continued expansion of energy infrastructure.
Europe
In Q4 2024, natural gas prices in Europe experienced a steady increase, primarily driven by heightened demand, geopolitical tensions, and supply challenges. The onset of colder weather in late October and November significantly boosted heating demand, particularly in Germany, as residential, commercial, and industrial sectors relied heavily on natural gas for warmth and power generation. This was exacerbated by a reduction in renewable energy production, especially from wind and solar, which increased reliance on gas-fired power plants. Geopolitical concerns, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, further contributed to market volatility, with fears over potential disruptions to Russian gas supplies intensifying.
Europe's dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, especially from the United States, added pressure, as the region competed for limited LNG cargoes amidst rising demand from Asia. Despite steady gas inflows from Norway and stable domestic production, the overall gas storage levels were lower than previous years, contributing to tighter supply conditions. The result was a consistent increase in prices throughout the quarter, reflecting growing concerns over supply adequacy and the impact of cold weather on consumption, signaling a challenging winter ahead for the European natural gas market.
MEA
In Q4 2024, natural gas prices in the MEA region, particularly in Saudi Arabia, exhibited a notable upward trend, influenced by a variety of domestic and global factors. The geopolitical unrest in the Middle East, coupled with rising global energy prices, contributed to an increase in gas prices. Additionally, Saudi Arabia's growing domestic natural gas demand, especially from industrial and power generation sectors, placed upward pressure on prices. The country's efforts to diversify its energy mix by increasing renewable energy use, alongside its investment in natural gas infrastructure, helped stabilize supply but could not fully mitigate the rising demand. Furthermore, the seasonal winter demand for heating, exacerbated by colder weather, pushed consumption higher, further tightening supply and increasing costs.
Saudi Arabia also focused on expanding its natural gas sector, with strategic investments such as acquiring a stake in MidOcean Energy, marking its ambitions to become a significant player in the global LNG market. Despite stable domestic supply and enhanced production capacity, regional tensions, unexpected cold weather, and the global rise in energy prices contributed to a sustained incline in natural gas prices throughout Q4 2024.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 in the North American region witnessed uneven pricing dynamics in natural gas. During the first half of Q3, U.S. natural gas prices experienced a significant decline due to several factors. A surplus in natural gas storage marked seven consecutive weeks of reductions, driven by strong demand from gas-fired power generation and production cuts. Despite increased consumption in the power sector resulting from extreme summer heat, bearish pressures emerged from lower LNG exports, particularly after Hurricane Beryl disrupted operations. Total supply rose, with dry production and net imports from Canada increasing, while storage injections exceeded both last year's levels and the five-year average. Market sentiment remained cautious, with hedge funds holding long positions that indicated mixed outlooks. Although domestic production was projected to reach record levels, cooler temperatures and ongoing weather uncertainties added further pressure on prices.
In the second half of Q3 2024, the North American natural gas market witnessed a notable shift in pricing dynamics, characterized by an upward trajectory. This increase in prices was primarily influenced by supply disruptions from weather-related incidents, alongside strong export demand and fluctuating consumption patterns. The market showed signs of tightening as demand surged, particularly in the power generation and industrial sectors. This rise in demand, coupled with record LNG exports and growing adoption across various sectors, supported the overall price trend.
The quarter recorded a 5% decline overall as compared to the previous quarter, but the second half saw a 2% increase compared to the first half. This price trend culminated in a quarter-ending price of USD 2,645 per MT of natural gas (USD per 1,000 MMBtu) Ex-Louisiana, marking a significant uptick. Overall, the pricing environment in Q3 2024 was characterized by volatility across the North American region.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 in the APAC region witnessed erratic pricing dynamics in natural gas. In the first half of Q3, natural gas prices in China experienced a significant decline driven by several factors. Demand fell short of expectations, particularly as prices exceeded previous thresholds, prompting a reduction in imports. Despite an increase in domestic production, it remained insufficient to meet overall demand, highlighting ongoing challenges in the sector. Concurrently, rising European gas prices added pressure to the market, complicating supply dynamics. Additionally, lower international LNG prices created a bearish sentiment, making imports more attractive but not enough to sustain higher consumption levels. Seasonal demand fluctuations and economic uncertainties further contributed to the downward price trend. In contrast, the second half of the quarter marked a notable increase in prices. Several key factors influenced market dynamics during this period, including growing geopolitical tensions, supply constraints, and heightened global demand. Increased industrial activity, seasonal fluctuations, and strategic stockpiling efforts further contributed to the upward price trend. Within China, the market exhibited a significant hybrid pricing pattern, reflecting broader regional dynamics. The correlation between supply and demand, coupled with seasonal variations, played a pivotal role in shaping pricing trends. The quarter-on-quarter decline of 5% showed a more positive trajectory, with a 2% increase observed when comparing the first and second halves of the quarter. Closing at USD 2,645/MT of natural gas (USD/1000mmBtu) Ex-Shanghai, China exemplified the overall mixed sentiment in the natural gas pricing environment.
Europe
The third quarter of 2024 in the European region experienced a mixed pricing environment for natural gas. In the first half of Q3, prices notably increased due to various factors, including geopolitical tensions from conflicts in the Middle East and concerns about Russian gas supplies. Additionally, rising demand from regions like China and the Middle East tightened the market, influencing price dynamics. Conversely, the second half of Q3 saw natural gas prices in Germany decline significantly, supported by stable supply conditions amid ongoing geopolitical tensions near the Russian Sudzha compressor station. Robust inventory levels alleviated market anxieties, while increased wind power generation reduced the demand for gas in electricity production. A sharp drop in U.S. LNG exports coincided with a stabilization in European demand, as countries adjusted their reliance on these supplies. Traders remained vigilant, monitoring potential disruptions from tropical storms that could impact LNG exports. This market correction followed an earlier price surge, reflecting a more balanced outlook as winter approached. Germany’s commitment to energy security was underscored by efforts to diversify energy sources and expand LNG import capacity, despite ongoing concerns about future supply dynamics. The quarter saw a 15% price increase from the previous quarter, reflecting the growing pressures on supply and demand. Germany, experiencing the most significant price changes, saw a 16% increase in prices between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price for Natural Gas in Germany stood at USD 35825/MT (Eur/1000MWh) FD-Hamburg, underlining the overall varied trajectory in pricing, driven by a combination of global factors and domestic market conditions.
MEA
The third quarter of 2024 in the Middle East region experienced mixed price fluctuations. In the first half of Q3, Saudi Arabia's natural gas prices declined due to various factors affecting supply and demand. Significant new discoveries of oil and gas fields enhanced optimism about future supply levels, while increased domestic production from new gas fields in the Eastern Province and Empty Quarter bolstered availability. Additionally, Saudi Aramco's strategic investments in gas infrastructure aimed to expand production capabilities. However, despite robust domestic consumption, the anticipated rise in demand was slightly offset by lower-than-expected summer usage and increased competition in the global market. This imbalance between heightened supply and moderated demand exerted downward pressure on prices, reflecting the challenges facing the local gas sector amid evolving market dynamics. In the second half of Q3 2024, the Middle East and Africa region saw a notable increase in natural gas prices, particularly in Saudi Arabia, which experienced significant price fluctuations. The overall upward trend was influenced by strong global demand, especially from Asia and Europe, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, creating bullish market sentiment. Saudi Arabia's strategic investments in expanding gas infrastructure, new field discoveries, and commitments to LNG projects further fueled the price surge. Specifically, the natural gas pricing landscape in Saudi Arabia reflected a conflicted trend, while there was a slight decrease of 2% from the previous quarter, the second half of the quarter witnessed a notable 8% increase in prices. The quarter-ending price for natural gas in Saudi Arabia stood at USD 2,620 per MT (USD per 1,000 MMBtu) Ex-Riyadh, indicating an overall hybrid pricing environment.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American natural gas market experienced a pronounced rise in prices, driven by several significant factors. Foremost among these was an increase in demand for natural gas, spurred by heightened temperatures necessitating extensive use of air conditioning in residential and commercial sectors. This surge in demand was compounded by lower-than-expected storage injections and constraints in production due to maintenance activities and delays in new well completions. The burgeoning global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market also played a role, as increased exports tightened domestic supplies. Concurrently, robust industrial activity further elevated consumption levels, reinforcing the upward pressure on prices.
The USA, the epicenter of these fluctuations, saw the most substantial price changes. The overall trend exhibited a clear upswing, influenced by both seasonality and sustained industrial demand. The correlation in price changes revealed a significant interdependence between weather patterns and consumption rates, with hotter-than-average conditions substantially driving prices higher. There was a 10% increase from the previous quarter, indicative of a robust recovery trajectory.
Concluding Q2, the latest quarter-ending price for natural gas in the USA stood at USD 2837 per 1000 MMBtu, Ex-Louisiana. This consistent upward pricing trend reflects a positive yet volatile environment, with market sentiment buoyed by strong demand fundamentals and supply-side constraints. Overall, the quarter has been characterized by a positive pricing environment, driven by a confluence of demand surges and production limitations, heralding continued vigilance in managing supply and demand equilibrium.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the APAC region experienced a significant upward shift in natural gas prices, driven by a confluence of factors. Elevated demand due to economic recovery, intensified industrial activities, and seasonal weather patterns were primary catalysts. The region's dependency on natural gas for power generation and industrial processes, coupled with limited domestic production capabilities and geopolitical tensions affecting global LNG supplies, further exacerbated the price increases. In particular, the ongoing energy transition towards cleaner fuels saw a robust pivot to natural gas, as industries endeavored to reduce carbon emissions. Focusing on China, which witnessed the most pronounced price changes, a combination of industrial replenishment, heightened summer energy demand, and constrained supply dynamics pushed prices upward. The Q2 showcased a 10% increase from Q1 2024. Seasonality played a crucial role, with the first half of the quarter experiencing moderate demand, which surged by 44% in the latter half due to intensified industrial activity and a rise in cooling needs as temperatures soared. These market dynamics culminated in a quarter-ending price of USD 2837 per1000 MMBtu of Natural Gas, Ex-Shanghai. Overall, the pricing environment in Q2 2024 was markedly positive, underpinned by substantial demand growth and supply constraints. The continual increase in natural gas prices highlights the region's ongoing challenges in balancing demand with supply, amid a backdrop of economic recovery and energy transition efforts.
Europe
In the second quarter of 2024, the European natural gas market experienced significant upward pricing momentum, primarily driven by a confluence of geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, and heightened demand dynamics. The increasing prices were influenced by a combination of factors, including reduced pipeline flows due to maintenance activities, unexpected outages in major supply hubs, and a broader geopolitical landscape that saw rising tensions impacting energy trade routes. Additionally, the growing global competition for LNG cargoes, exacerbated by severe heatwaves in Asia, diverted supplies away from Europe, contributing to the bullish market sentiment. In Germany, the epicenter of natural gas price fluctuations, this quarter was marked by pronounced volatility and the highest price increases within the region. The country’s strategic shift from Russian gas to alternative suppliers, compounded by slower-than-expected inventory build-up, played a pivotal role in driving prices higher. Seasonal factors, particularly the transition from spring to summer, led to increased demand for air conditioning, further straining supply. The overall trend for Germany indicated a significant correlation between seasonality and price escalation, reflecting an environment of sustained upward pressure. The change from the previous quarter in 2024 was a substantial 15%, underscoring the recent surge in market activity. Notably, the price comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter showed a 13% increase, highlighting the escalating trend within the period. By the end of the quarter, German natural gas prices closed at Euro 34143/ 1000MWh, FD-Hamburg, cementing a quarter characterized by a predominantly positive pricing environment marked by persistent supply challenges and robust demand.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the MEA region's natural gas market exhibited a pronounced upward trend, driven largely by a mix of escalating demand and constrained supply. The region's burgeoning industrial activities, coupled with heightened electricity consumption due to soaring temperatures, were pivotal in pushing prices upward. The transition towards cleaner energy sources further amplified demand for natural gas as an alternative to more polluting fuels. Increased investments in LNG infrastructure and strategic export agreements played a crucial role in shaping the market dynamics, reflecting a positive pricing environment for natural gas. Focusing on Saudi Arabia, the country witnessed the most significant price changes in the region. The natural gas prices surged markedly, underscored by a 8% increase from the previous quarter in 2024. This rise is attributed to a combination of intensified domestic consumption and strategic advancements in natural gas infrastructure, including substantial investments in LNG export capabilities. The seasonality factor, particularly the peak summer demand for air conditioning, heavily influenced the price trends. The latest quarter-ending price stood at USD 2784/1000 MMBtu of Natural Gas , Ex-Riyadh, underscoring the consistent positive sentiment within the market. Overall, the pricing environment in Q2 2024 has been overwhelmingly positive, driven by robust demand, strategic infrastructure investments, and seasonal factors contributing to the sustained price elevation.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The U.S. natural gas market witnessed price fluctuations in Q1 2024, driven by a mix of supply, demand, and economic factors. Initially, In January, U.S. natural gas prices surged by 7% amid speculative buying during a winter storm, only to decline in the rest of the quarter. Factors contributing to the decline included mild weather, oversupply from shale regions, and strategic production cuts by leading producers like EQT. Despite these fluctuations, economic factors like Fed rate indications and robust export demand provided some stability amidst market uncertainties.
Then later the rest of the months in Q1 lower prices prevailed due to reduced heating demand from a mild winter, despite ongoing global energy transitions. This trend contrasted with typical upward pressure caused by geopolitical tensions.
Supply factors, notably high production from shale regions and subsequent production cuts by key players, significantly impacted the market. These cuts aimed to stabilize prices in response to prolonged periods of low prices resulting from oversupply. Moreover, economic policies, such as potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influenced market dynamics by weakening the U.S. dollar and supporting export demand, particularly for liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe.
While the quarter began with bullish sentiments and led to bearish sentiments, the market's direction remained uncertain as the quarter closed, leaving room for both ongoing challenges and potential recovery, depending on evolving market dynamics. Hence, the latest quarter ending price for Natural Gas in USA is USD 1768/1000mmBtu.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the natural gas market in China experienced notable fluctuations driven by a complex interplay of demand and supply factors, alongside geopolitical influences. Initially, the market saw an uptick in demand as China increased its spot purchases, influenced by the previous quarter's lower prices. This rise was further supported by seasonal increases in heating requirements during the colder months. However, as the quarter progressed, the demand softened due to a combination of milder weather and a slowdown in industrial activity, particularly in sectors sensitive to economic cycles.
On the supply side, China's domestic natural gas production continued to rise, thanks to enhanced output from both conventional and unconventional sources. This increase in supply was aimed at reducing reliance on imports and stabilizing domestic prices. However, the expanded supply, coupled with strategic government interventions in pricing and market regulation, occasionally led to an oversupply situation.
Geopolitical factors also played a role, with China's natural gas imports being affected by international market dynamics and relations, particularly with Russia. These factors, along with internal policy adjustments aimed at energy security and transition to cleaner energy sources, contributed to the volatile pricing and market sentiment throughout the quarter. Hence, the latest quarter ending price for Natural Gas in China is USD 1768/1000mmBtu.
Overall, the quarter was marked by these push-and-pull dynamics between rising domestic production capabilities and fluctuating demand influenced by both environmental factors and broader economic conditions, leading to a period of price adjustments and market recalibration.
Europe
In Q1 2024, Europe's natural gas market experienced a downturn in prices, primarily driven by a combination of mild winter weather and broad economic challenges. The warmer-than-expected weather across the continent significantly reduced the demand for heating, thus lowering natural gas consumption. Additionally, an economic slowdown across several European nations curtailed industrial activity, further diminishing natural gas demand. On the supply side, Europe benefited from high storage levels, which had been strategically bolstered in anticipation of potential supply disruptions, thereby easing supply concerns. The increased adoption of renewable energy sources also played a role in reducing dependency on natural gas. Furthermore, Europe continued to diversify its energy imports away from traditional pipelines from Russia to more varied sources, including increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the United States and Qatar. This diversification helped stabilize the market by reducing Europe’s vulnerability to geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions.
In March, Germany saw a 2.3% price hike amid reduced Russian pipeline imports and higher LNG demand. These factors, along with global LNG trends and energy policy shifts, shaped the softened prices observed during the quarter.
Market dynamics were also influenced by changes in LNG global market trends and shifts in energy policies aimed at enhancing energy security and sustainability. These factors collectively contributed to the softened natural gas prices observed during the quarter, reflecting a complex interplay between reduced demand and robust, diversified supply capabilities. Hence, the latest quarter ending price for Natural Gas in Germany is Euro 26308/1000Mwh.
MEA
In the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, the natural gas market has been influenced by a blend of geopolitical shifts, supply variations, and evolving energy policies. Specifically, the escalation of tensions in key areas such as the Gulf has prompted concerns about supply disruptions, thereby affecting regional market stability. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Qatar have increased their focus on enhancing LNG production capacities, positioning themselves as pivotal players in the global energy market. This strategic shift is not only aimed at meeting the rising global demand but also at securing a competitive edge in the increasingly diversified international market.
Simultaneously, economic reforms and diversification efforts, particularly in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, have led to a gradual increase in industrial activities, thereby boosting domestic gas demand. This uptick in demand is being balanced with substantial investments in renewable energy projects, which are part of broader national visions to reduce reliance on hydrocarbon revenues.
Additionally, the African natural gas sector is experiencing a transformation, driven by significant discoveries in countries like Mozambique and Tanzania. These discoveries have the potential to transform the energy landscapes of these countries and position them as major LNG exporters. However, infrastructural challenges and regulatory uncertainties pose risks to the rapid development of these resources.
The pricing dynamics in the MEA region have also been influenced by these factors, with natural gas prices showing volatility based on the interplay of regional demand-supply scenarios, global energy trends, and geopolitical stability. As countries in this region continue to navigate these complex dynamics, the natural gas market is expected to remain a critical component of their economic and energy strategies, shaping the regional energy discourse, and contributing to global energy security. Hence, latest ending prices in Saudi Arabia of Natural gas is USD 1823/1000mmBTU.
