US n-Butanol Prices Gain Support from Limited Feedstock, and Improving Demand Conditions

In the first half of June 2024, n-Butanol prices in the US rose by around 1.3% as demand improved while production faced significant constraints.

Despite stable prices for feedstock Propylene (Refinery Grade), its availability was severely limited due to multiple plants experiencing force majeure, which influenced the prices of n-Butanol. Dow Chemical in Freeport, Texas, encountered process disruptions, while Enterprise Products Partners L.P. in Mont Belvieu, Texas operated at reduced capacities of 56% and 76% respectively due to power failures. Additionally, Chevron Phillips Chemical Company's Sweeny Facility in Texas operated at 80% capacity due to maintenance, exacerbating the condition. Consequently, these factors led to higher production costs for n-Butanol.

However, there were signs of improving demand for n-Butanol in the downstream plasticizer sector. Overall demand for n-Butanol from the construction industry remained subdued, although expectations for improvement were prevalent in May 2024. According to data from the US Census Bureau, construction spending in April 2024 was estimated at $2,099.0 billion annually, reflecting a slight decline of 0.1% compared to the revised March estimate of $2,101.5 billion, with further depreciations anticipated in May 2024. Private construction spending amounted to $1,611.9 billion annually, down 0.1% from the revised March estimate of $1,613.3 billion, with continued declines expected in May due to higher borrowing costs, which may further impart a downward pressure on demand conditions of n-Butanol.

Non-residential construction reached an annual rate of $721.5 billion in April, marking a 0.3% decrease from the revised March estimate of $723.8 billion. Public construction spending in April was estimated at $487.1 billion annually, down 0.2% from the revised March estimate of $488.2 billion. Educational construction stood at $103.5 billion annually, down 0.2% from the revised March estimate of $103.6 billion, while highway construction totalled $149.6 billion annually, down 0.5% from the revised March estimate of $150.4 billion. Residential construction was the only area showing positive demand for n-Butanol reaching an annual rate of $890.4 billion in April, up 0.1% from the revised March estimate of $889.5 billion. This increase was attributed to lower mortgage rates reported by Freddie Mac, which improved to 7.03% for 30-year fixed terms and 6.36% for 15-year fixed terms, indicating a positive outlook for home purchases and casting a favourable outlook on the demand conditions of n-Butanol.

Demand for n-Butanol from the residential construction segment was further bolstered by a significant increase in starts for housing projects with five or more units, surging by 31.4% to 322,000 units in April. Overall housing starts rose by 5.7% to 1.360 million units, sustaining oxo-alcohol consumption in the coating industry and preventing price declines. Official figures for May 2024 from the US Census Bureau were pending release at the time of reporting.

Overall, prices of n-Butanol are expected to increase due to price revisions being carried out by US suppliers in June 2024. Moreover, the present hurricane season is further expected to prompt suppliers shift to restocking of feedstock Propylene, which may further increase the production costs of n-Butanol.