For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American n-Butanol market faced a significant downturn, particularly in the USA, influenced by a confluence of challenging factors. Supply chain disruptions, especially related to refinery run rates and limited availability of propylene, severely constrained production capabilities. This situation was further exacerbated by weakened demand from downstream industries, notably paints and coatings, which struggled to recover amid seasonal fluctuations. Despite efforts from major producers like Eastman Chemicals to increase prices by USD 110/MT on August 1, 2024, the overall market sentiment remained negative. Strikes organized by the International Longshoremen's Association created additional logistical challenges, complicating an already strained supply chain.
Furthermore, the ongoing hurricane season posed serious operational challenges, impacting production in critical manufacturing areas across the USA. As a result, the pricing landscape for n-Butanol reflected this turmoil, with a notable 6% decline from the previous quarter and a staggering 28% drop compared to the same period last year. The latter half of the quarter continued this downward trajectory, recording another 6% decrease, leading to a quarter-ending price of USD 1,385/MT of n-Butanol FOB New York.
This consistent decline highlights the precarious conditions facing the market throughout Q3 2024, emphasizing the ongoing struggles with supply, demand, and external disruptions.
APAC
In the third quarter of 2024, the Asian n-Butanol market experienced a pronounced bearish trend, with prices plummeting by over 14% by the quarter's end. This decline was primarily driven by an oversupplied market that continued to exert downward pressure on prices. Formosa Plastics Corporation, a key producer in the region, maintained its Mai Liao facility’s run rates at 100% capacity, producing 240,000 metric tons of n-Butanol. Similarly, Luxi Chemical, with a production capacity of 300,000 metric tons per year, also kept its run rate steady at 100% throughout the quarter, contributing to an overall supply glut. This situation resulted in historically low prices for n-Butanol across the Asian market. Despite moderate availability of feedstock propylene—which was expected to impact production—the continued high supply overwhelmed demand. Furthermore, a downturn in the construction sector limited demand from the paints and coatings industries, further exacerbating the price decline. The combination of abundant supply and subdued demand created significant challenges for the n-Butanol market in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European n-Butanol market experienced a significant decline in prices, particularly in Germany, where fluctuations were most pronounced. Several factors contributed to this downturn. An oversupply of propylene, a critical feedstock for n-Butanol production, led to reduced production costs, further exerting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, subdued demand from the paints and coatings sector, compounded by a slowdown in the construction industry, added to the challenges facing the market. Early in the quarter, the return of OQ Chemicals to production suggested a potential normalization of conditions. However, disruptions arose in August as many propylene plants temporarily shut down for maintenance during the summer holidays. Notably, Shell Chemicals declared a force majeure at its Moerdijk facility, resulting in decreased n-Butanol output across Europe. To mitigate the ongoing bearish market conditions, OQ Chemicals implemented a price increase of $110/MT in the European market. By September, most propylene plants resumed operations, and the arrival of propylene cargoes from the Middle East and Asia led to a supply glut that intensified the already negative sentiment. Germany saw a considerable 21% decrease in n-Butanol prices compared to the same period last year, with a quarter-on-quarter decline of 21% as well. The first half of the quarter recorded a 1% drop, highlighting the persistent bearish market conditions. As Q3 closed, n-Butanol prices in Germany settled at USD 1,560/MT FD Hamburg, reflecting the overall negative sentiment in the region and the ongoing challenges within the market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In the second quarter of 2024, n-Butanol prices in North America faced significant declines driven by critical factors. Production costs soared due to reduced availability of Propylene from unplanned shutdowns and force majeures at major facilities. At the same time, subdued demand, particularly in the construction-related paints and coatings sectors, coupled with higher borrowing costs and regulatory shifts, further pressured prices downward.
Despite modest improvements in manufacturing and economic indicators, overall market sentiment remained pessimistic, with the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady amid ongoing inflation concerns. In the USA, n-Butanol prices fluctuated dramatically, reflecting broader market trends. Year-over-year, prices plummeted by 39%, highlighting stark contrasts with the previous year. Compared to the preceding quarter of 2024, prices fell by 8%, continuing a downward trend. Seasonal challenges like adverse weather and logistical disruptions exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, perpetuating negative market conditions.
Throughout the quarter, prices decreased marginally by 2% between the first and second halves, underscoring persistent bearish sentiment. Closing the quarter at USD 1546 per metric ton FOB New York, n-Butanol prices underscored a challenging pricing environment shaped by ongoing production disruptions and subdued demand dynamics. The overall trend remained decisively negative, reflecting the compounded impacts of supply constraints and lacklustre market conditions.
APAC
Throughout the second quarter of 2024, the n-Butanol market in the APAC region endured a notable decline in prices, influenced by several pivotal factors. Chief among these were the prevailing oversupply conditions exacerbated by delayed cargo arrivals, which disrupted market equilibrium. This oversupply, coupled with a subdued construction sector, notably reduced demand from downstream industries such as plasticizers, paints, and coatings. Adding to these challenges were maintenance shutdowns at various Propylene plants across the region, which limited the availability of crucial feedstocks and drove up production costs. The situation was further complicated by fluctuating freight charges and logistical bottlenecks at major ports, intermittently disrupting supply chains and compounding the market's volatility. In Japan, where market dynamics were particularly pronounced, the trend was decisively bearish. Prices experienced a significant 15% decline compared to the same quarter last year, reflecting the profound impact of supply-demand imbalances. Within the quarter itself, prices saw a 3% drop, influenced by seasonal factors like reduced construction activity during the summer months. Closing the quarter at USD 1215/MT CFR Osaka, the pricing environment underscored the persistent downward pressure felt throughout the period. This challenging landscape for n-Butanol in Japan during Q2 2024 highlighted the intricate interplay of oversupply, logistical disruptions, subdued demand, and increased production costs, collectively shaping a market struggling to find stability amidst ongoing uncertainties.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European n-Butanol market experienced a pronounced decline, influenced by several pivotal factors. Increased availability of Propylene feedstock, along with improved logistics and normalized trade routes, contributed significantly to the market's bearish sentiment. These supply-side enhancements were bolstered by major European manufacturers most notably OQ Chemicals returning to full production capacity, easing previous supply concerns. OQ’s return to production in early May 2024, dispensed more confidence than actual material in the market, which resulted in market sentiments transitioning from cautious to anxious as market players waited for the prices to fall further. Weak demand from downstream sectors like paints and coatings further exacerbated price declines, as sluggish construction activity and cautious consumer spending persisted. While inflation pressures slightly eased, they failed to restore market confidence. Germany, at the heart of these market shifts, witnessed a sharp downturn. Seasonal challenges, including adverse weather conditions and resulting logistical disruptions, intensified downward price pressures. The balance between reduced demand and increased supply drove significant price reductions: a 2% drop year-over-year and a steep 21% decline from the previous quarter in 2024. Within the quarter itself, n-Butanol prices fell by a notable 17% between the first and second halves. Closing the quarter at USD 1635 per metric ton FD Hamburg, n-Butanol prices highlighted a persistently negative market environment. Overall, the market reflected bearish conditions marked by oversupply, subdued demand, and improvements in supply chain efficiency and production normalization.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American n-Butanol has witnessed a bearish market situation during the first quarter of 2024 as indicated by the prices, which witnessed an overall slump of approximately 18%. Driving the US n-Butanol market was the low demand from the downstream construction and automotive sectors of the Asian market.
The low demand from the downstream construction sector is majorly attributed to the crisis across real estate across China and the post-festive dullness after the termination of the Chinese Lunar New Year, which also slowed the demand from the downstream automotive industry. Moreover, drought conditions across the Panama Canal also prevented US suppliers from shipping cargo to the Asian market.
Despite one of the leading producers of oxo-alcohols across the US market, namely Eastman Chemicals announcing a price hike, the effects did not translate into the export prices of n-Butanol. Driving the export US oxo-alcohol market was the downturn in the construction sector across China where real estate developers faced a liquidity crunch having defaulted on credits which compelled construction activities to halt in China and led to pushbacks and postponement in procurement of inventories.
Asia
The Asian n-Butanol Market across the first quarter of 2024 witnessed a largely mixed market situation. During the first two months of 2024 prices of n-Butanol witnessed an inflation of more than 7%, due to heightened production costs across the exporting European market and price hikes implemented by major oxo-alcohol producers, namely OQ Chemicals and Eastman Chemicals. Complementing increments in the production costs are a force majeure declared by OQ Chemicals, a major oxo-alcohol producer across the exporting European market at its Oberhausen site in Germany, and a shortage of feedstock Propylene across Europe due to major Propylene plants being shut across Europe and the exporting US due to challenging weather conditions. The challenging supply conditions were further exacerbated by the crisis at the Red Sea which also increased freight and insurance charges, which all contributed to the arrival of expensive imports of the product across the East Asian market. However, the last month of the opening quarter of 2024 witnessed prices of the product decline by approximately 4.5% due to low demand from the construction and automotive industry. This consequently eased the demand from the downstream plasticizer and paints and coating industries. Demand conditions across the East Asian market continued to remain unfavorable as evidenced by declines in housing starts and public construction orders. Moreover, the automotive sector across East Asia also failed to provide any support to the n-Butanol market as automotive sales continued on a declining trend during the first quarter of 2024.
Europe
The European n-Butanol market witnessed inflation of almost 70% in the prices during the first quarter of 2024 due to heightened production costs, a scarcity of feedstock Propylene, and the price hikes introduced by major oxo-alcohol producers. A scarcity of feedstock Propylene was observed across the European market due to feedstock Propylene plants being shut across the exporting US market which led to heightened production costs. Moreover, OQ Chemicals a major oxo-alcohol producer had declared a force majeure at its Oberhausen site in Germany, further leading to a shortage in the supplies of the product. The demand for the product remained moderate across the Eurozone and mainly existed from the Dutch, Belgian, and British markets where construction activities improved, which led to moderate demand for the product. However, across the domestic German market, demand conditions continued to remain unfavorable as the construction sector continued to remain in retrenchment for the fifteenth consecutive month. All segments of the construction sector namely, residential construction, commercial construction, and civil engineering witnessed significant contraction towards the end of March 2024.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American n-Butanol market witnessed a price decline during the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily driven by subdued demand and consistent supply. The market exhibited a bearish trend, with n-Butanol prices in the USA registering a 1% decrease compared to the preceding quarter. The diminished demand from downstream industries, particularly paints and coatings, played a pivotal role in shaping the overall market conditions. Additionally, the presence of abundant supply further contributed to the downward trajectory of prices.
Several factors contributed to the market dynamics, including reduced demand from the downstream PVC market, prompting manufacturers to scale back production. The stable supply of n-Butanol also played a significant role in influencing the price decline. Furthermore, the depreciation in prices of feedstock propylene, a crucial raw material, exerted additional downward pressure on n-Butanol prices.
In terms of specific pricing details, the n-Butanol price in the USA for the current quarter experienced a 1% decrease compared to the previous quarter. Notably, in November 2023, OQ Chemicals, a prominent oxo-alcohol manufacturer, announced a price increase of USD 88/MT for n-Butanol, effective from November 1, 2023. The confluence of factors, including low demand, stable supply, and declining feedstock prices, collectively influenced the market dynamics. The quarter ending December 2023 with an n-Butanol prices of USD 1910/MT FOB New York in the USA.
APAC
The n-butanol market in the APAC region encountered noteworthy factors shaping prices during the fourth quarter of 2023. Firstly, the market demonstrated a consistent and dependable supply of n-butanol, distinguishing itself from other regions facing supply constraints. Secondly, the occurrence of plant shutdowns, such as those at the Lihuayi Weiyuan Chemical plant in Shandong and the Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical plant in Taixing, China, had an impact on the availability of feedstock propylene, contributing to a moderate supply scenario in the market. Japan, in particular, witnessed significant price dynamics during this quarter. The n-butanol market in Japan saw a 2.2% monthly price increase in November 2023, interrupting a two-month declining trend. However, December 2023 witnessed a substantial price decrease of nearly 10%, attributed to cost-efficient imports from the European market and the depreciation of feedstock propylene, resulting in reduced production costs. This, in turn, led to an highly supplied market situation across the East Asian market. These factors encompassed stable supply, plant shutdowns, and noteworthy price fluctuations in Japan. The latest price for n-butanol CFR Osaka in Japan for this quarter is USD 1250/MT.
Europe
The market dynamics of n-butanol in the German market exhibited a predominantly bearish trend during the fourth quarter of 2023. Prices initially remained stable in October, experienced a marginal increase of 2% in November, and subsequently underwent a depreciation of 10% in December. The primary driver behind this bearish trend was the subdued demand emanating from the construction industry, which sustained a contraction for the thirteenth consecutive month. Notably, the construction industry in Germany faced highly unfavorable conditions, marked by historically low investment confidence. Real estate firms reported persistent challenges, indicating a lack of improvement in demand conditions. Across Europe, all three segments of the construction sector, including housebuilding, civil engineering, and commercial building activities, witnessed contractions. Housebuilding, in particular, continued to be the weakest-performing segment. The downtrends in construction activities further alleviated pressure on the demand for the paints and coatings industry. Raw material availability experienced a prolonged easing for the thirteenth consecutive month, contributing to an oversupplied market situation. Despite the overall poor performance of the construction industry, OQ Chemicals, a prominent manufacturer of oxo-alcohols, opted to increase n-butanol prices in November, effective from November 1, 2023. This decision resulted in a 2% price increment by the end of November. However, this increase proved largely ineffective due to the persistently low demand from the paint and coating industry.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
The overall n-butanol market in the USA declined significantly during the third quarter compared to the second quarter owing to the muted demand from the importing countries. However, the drop of other oxo-alcohol was marginal, while the drop of n-butanol was significant due to lesser demand from other oxo-alcohol along with sufficient availability during July. The reduced demand has prompted manufacturers to scale back production levels, creating an oversupply situation. Compounding this issue, the price of feedstock propylene, a critical component in n-butanol production, has also experienced a significant decrease during August. This decline in propylene prices has had a cascading effect, reducing the overall production costs of n-butanol. However, as per the data released by Fred, US Construction activities were observed to be marginally improved from the previous month, Industrial Producers Prices upgraded to 0.5% in September. Despite the enhancement in this sector, the prices of n-butanol remained unaffected in the US market during September amid sufficient supplies to cater to the subdued demand.
Asia
The overall month-wise upward trend has been observed by the n-butanol Chinese market during the third quarter under the influence of the tight spot of raw material. The plant shutdown of n-butanol plants in some regions of China disrupted the supply chain of the product during July. Moreover, some feedstock propylene plants were observed to have turnaround, including Qixiang Tengda Chemical, Sinopec Maoming Petrochemical, and PetroChina Daqing during this timeframe, which further supported the price trend to elevate. Henceforth, the rise in feedstock propylene prices increased the production cost for n-butanol during August. Additionally, the Chinese Yuan depreciated by -0.40% during August against the USD, which would also be the reason behind the surged price trend of n-butanol. On the demand side, the trading atmosphere for the product on the Chinese market performed well. New orders have improved along with a small range of stage stockings from downstream paint manufacturers as a precautionary action to remain fulfilled during the requirement, which eventually surged the prices of n-butanol during September.
Europe
Contrary to the Asian market, the price trend of n-butanol witnessed a decent decline during the third quarter compared with the second one amid low demand for oxo-alcohol from the downstream construction industry. According to Eurostat, the German PPI fell to 134 in July, reflecting the contraction in factory activity. Moreover, business confidence has been eroded by the declining order book and broader economic concerns, leading to a decrease in factory output. Traders of oxo-alcohol also offered discounts on output charges to maintain sales volumes during August. Moreover, readily available feedstock propylene prices further supported the bearish trend. Despite the high feedstock propylene prices, several enterprises received fewer orders for their goods during September on the verge of subdued demand, and the production units were operating at normal rates, which was sufficient to meet the suppressed demand. On the supply side, the flow of cargoes of n-butanol remained moderate enough to support the price trajectory. Moreover, due to the subdued demand for oxo-alcohols from the downstream paints and coating industries, few participants considered early shutdowns to stem supply during September, which further exacerbated downward pressure on the prices.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
During the second quarter, the overall n-butanol market in the US remained weak as compared to the first quarter, which was influenced by the lower demand for the feedstock propylene market. The n-butanol market continued to follow the increasing trend till April amid tight supply. As per the data, the Industrial Production Total Index rose from 102.6 (March) to 103.1 (April), causing economic activities to improve. At the same time, the US has faced high-cost pressure due to the production cut. Moreover, positive demand for the downstream coating industry was observed, which has contributed to the further increase in prices for n-butanol in the US market as consumer spending in the country recorded an increase in new orders. However, the n-butanol demand saw negative buying sentiments amidst lower demand in the coating industry of the US, which has influenced the prices to continuously decrease and settle at 2252 USD/tonne n-butanol FOB New York during the end of May. Moreover, feedstock propylene prices have shown a significant decline of 10.8% from April to June.
Asia
An overall monthly upward trend has been observed during April 2023, owing to the recovery in the downstream operational activities. Due to the increased commodity prices, the Chinese market faced competitive pressure to meet the requirement, which has led the prices of n-butanol to grow due to the limited stock volume available. Nonetheless, Labour Day has also contributed to the significant rise in n-butanol prices during the first week of May. However, the sluggish downstream offers from the coating segment and cheaper imports from Asian countries led to negative sentiment among traders. Moreover, the feedstock propylene prices in China have significantly declined by 7.7% from May to June. Temporary prices rose during June due to Dragon Boat Festival, which has contributed to restricted tight spot flow of the product and influenced the prices to hover at 1030 USC/tonne n-butanol Spot Ex-Shandong. Before having a sharp drop, n-butanol prices were marginally increased in Japan to settle at 1679 USD/tonne CFR Osaka.
Europe
The average pricing trend of n-butanol during the second quarter in the European market remained marginally weak compared to the first quarter, which is demand driven from feedstock propylene prices. However, a minimal upward price trend was observed during April 2023, amid subsided destocking in the European market. The finite availability of stocks and lower demand from the downstream coating industry limited the export, which has contributed to the overall upward momentum price trend in the German market. As per the data, Production in Industry-Manufacturing in Germany rose from 97.5 (March) to 97.6 (April), influencing the economic activities to be higher for April. Widely fluctuating crude oil prices and supply tightness influenced the overall pricing dynamics of n-butanol. On the contrary, stabilized downstream demand from the coating industry and surplus domestic supply contributed towards the downtrend of the n-butanol market to settle at 1843 USD/tonne n-butanol FD Hamburg during May. Due to the lower demand for feedstock propylene, BASF in Germany went into maintenance turnaround for two weeks in June, which has affected the overall pricing trend of n-butanol.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The n-butanol prices were overall on the downward side in the USA in March 2023, backed by the unchanged demand from the coating industry, and the new orders continued to fall along with sluggish export inquiries as high-interest rates and surging inflationary pressures hit demand. However, in March 2023, the n-Butanol prices showed a marginal surge as the manufacturers opted for a reduction in the production rates amid a drop in the input-buying activities in the US market this month in the face of high inflation. The operational activities were average, and the production run rates remained at reduced levels, as producers opted to moderate the effects of the limited buying appetite and elevated the n-Butanol prices slightly. Additionally, the n-Butanol price movement was affected by the global inactive demand and pricing fundamentals throughout the Q1 of 2023.
APAC
Due to the lack of downstream demand from the paint and textile industries, n-Butanol prices have not witnessed any significant change throughout the Q1 of 2023 in the APAC region and maintained a downward trend. Moreover, the slowdown in the downstream operational rates and the oversupply of the feedstock propylene had an impact on the pricing of n-butanol and conclusively reduced producer profitability. Market participants destocked inventories at lower margins as a result of the economy's delayed recovery. In conclusion, at the termination of March 2023, n-Butanol prices saw a monthly decline of 2.0% as a result of weakening new orders and the global bearish market situation for n-Butanol.
Europe
The pricing trend for n-Butanol in the European market remained low throughout the first quarter of 2023 due to narrowed cost pressure, as the production costs in the exporting nations remained steady. Following shipment delays due to industrial strikes in the European countries, raw material propylene prices fell in the producing nations, and demand sentiment among consumers declined. The producers negatively updated their price attempts to increase raw material offtakes and reduced the input costs of n-Butanol production. Additionally, the product offtakes by downstream phthalate makers remained moderate in the quarter ending March 2023. Meanwhile, European enterprises felt provoking wide uncertainty as OPEC announced a crude oil production cut at the termination of March 2023, which might further impact the April discussions of n-Butanol.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
The n-Butanol prices slipped in the quarter ending December 2022, backed by the lower demand from the downstream paints & coating industry and uncertainty in the upstream crude oil values due to the limited availability of stocks in the US market. As the upstream crude oil and petrochemical prices declined this quarter, the supply started surpassing the demand from the paint manufacturers and the country's automotive sector in mid-November 2022. The muted overseas offers, coupled with the lower domestic market, have contributed to the downturn in the prices of the commodity in the fourth quarter of 2022. The ongoing supply chain disruptions and rising recessionary fears dampened the downstream automotive industry demand for n-Butanol in the United States this quarter. Thus, the price of n-Butanol was quoted at USD 2630/MT FOB New York (USA) in December 2022.
APAC
The n-Butanol prices in the APAC region witnessed mixed market sentiments in the quarter ending December 2022. The n-Butanol prices surged in December 2022, bolstered by the upward feedstock Propylene costs and limited availability of inventories in the Chinese market. The trading activity slumped due to persisting COVID curbs, and manufacturers were seeking to destock the piled-up stocks, prompting price competitiveness among the market players in the mid-quarter. The volatility in the upstream global crude oil values due to constrained supplies in the market during the fourth quarter of 2022 impacted the pricing dynamics of n-Butanol. The price of n-Butanol was assessed at USD 1075/MT CFR-Qingdao (China) in December 2022.
Europe
The prices of n-Butanol witnessed a downward trend in the quarter ending December 2022, with declining demand in the automotive sector in the European market. The lower feedstock Propylene prices supported the ease in the n-Butanol input costs amidst crippled Russian supplies of upstream Crude oil in the region. The European market's weak consumer confidence due to elevated energy costs, soaring inflation, and a slumped economic outlook weighed on the trading activities across the regional market this quarter. The n-Butanol market players remained concerned about contracting economic conditions and growth prospects and made sales at lower profit margins amidst the fear of piling stocks at the year's end. Thus, the price of n-Butanol prices assessed at USD 2439/MT throughout December 2022.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
n-Butanol price trajectory remained stable during the third quarter, with a month-on-month increase of 2%, backed by the increasing petrochemical feedstock costs in the country amidst elevated demand from European importers in August 2022 and high upstream input cost pressure on the product's pricing dynamics. This quarter's volatility in natural gas costs raised the variable cost pressure on the commodity. On the demand side, the new orders from the downstream paints and coating from the construction sector were lower than in the previous quarter for the product. Meanwhile, US trade activities were subdued in September 2022 due to the congestion at Felixstowe and Liverpool port due to wages dispute. As a ripple effect, it affected the cargo momentum of N-Butanol during the Q3 of 2022.
Asia
The n-Butanol pricing dynamics showed mixed sentiments during the third quarter of 2022, backed by the volatility in the upstream crude oil prices and uncertain demand fundamentals. The price trend of n-Butanol persisted in Japan during the first half of this quarter, backed by the stability in the domestic offers amid sufficient availability of the product inventories. Moreover, the imports of n-Butanol decreased in the country, and regional exporters diminished their price quotations to improve product offtakes. However, the tension between China and Taiwan changed the market dynamics at the termination of August. N-Butanol prices took a steep rise in September, owing to the high upstream energy values and shortage of inventories due to regional supply disturbances.
Europe
The price trend of n-Butanol shifted in Germany during the third quarter of 2022, and product prices rose marginally by 2.7% in August. An increase in Natural gas costs due to uncertain gas supplies from Gazprom Russia impacted the production rates and caused pressure on the manufacturers and traders. Meanwhile, transportation costs rose swiftly in the regional market, increasing variable cost pressure. Additionally, the ships were sailing with reduced cargo loads due to decrement in the water levels of the Rhine River at the termination of August. Moreover, worsened effects of port congestion on the European supply routes have caused stress for commodity market players at the end of the third quarter of 2022.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
Following the previous quarter's trend, the price trend of n-Butanol remained steady, and product prices rose consistently throughout the Q2 of 2022, indicating a quarterly upsurge of 15.5% from the previous quarter. At the beginning of the quarter, prices surged substantially due to a boost in feed Propylene and upstream Naphtha prices. Then the monthly increment was slighter, and n-Butanol prices rose marginally till the end of the quarter. North America is the largest producer of EV automobiles globally, and plasticizers are produced mainly for the region's construction and EV automotive industries, so demand for n Butanol Oxo alcohol remained consistent in the phthalate and paint solvent manufacturers.
Asia
In the Asian region, the price n-Butanol was see-sawing as in China, the prices dwindled quarterly by almost 5%, whereas in India, the values inclined upward by 5.3%. Due to significant fluctuations in the petrochemical market and feed propylene caused by global inflation and supply disruption. Increased Russian Crude oil imports in the region negatively impacted the petrochemical prices and decreased the product costs in the 1st half of Q2. However, prices increased marginally in the mid-quarter, then reduced towards the end of quarter two due to a significant reduction in upstream costs in the region and uncertain demand from the plasticizer manufacturers.
Europe
The price trend of n-Butanol fluctuated substantially during Quarter 2 of 2022, and the price of n-Butanol rose by 25.5% from the previous quarter. At the beginning of the quarter, upstream costs increased dramatically post inflation and decreased Crude oil supplies in the region, which caused an upsurge of 20% in the first half of the quarter. However, values marginally reduced in the mid-quarter due to contraction in downstream phthalate and paint industry demand for oxo alcohols. Then, prices rose marginally towards the end of Q2 due to an escalation in the region's energy and fuel costs and boosted product values.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
There was an upward surge in the price of n-Butanol in the first quarter of 2022 because of increased demand due to growing consumption from the downstream sectors like plastics, polymers, and lubricants. The price of n-butanol for the US towards the end of the quarter surged to USD 2680/ton FOB New York. Increased freight charges along with container shortage further elevated the prices. The market growth was primarily attributed to high demand for n-Butanol in the formulation of butyl acrylate, butyl acetate, and its use as a direct solvent.
Asia Pacific
A fluctuation was observed in the price of Oxo Alcohol with an upward trend in February with stabilization in prices towards the end of the quarter in the Chinese market. China saw a variation in prices due to plant turnaround by the majority of Oxo-alcohol producers in the North-eastern regions because of the Covid situation, which recovered in March by adopting a cautious stance by the Chinese government. In China, the price of n-Butanol towards the end of the quarter was observed to be USD 1720/ton Spot Ex- Shangdong. The production of oxo-alcohols has strengthened in Q1 as the availability and prices of upstream crude oil increased due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which translated into increased operating rates and, therefore reduced price in the first half of the quarter.
Europe
In Europe, the price of n-Butanol rose in Q1, 2022 due to increasing end-stream demands for oxo alcohol, especially in Germany, which was used in synthetic rubber, food additives, and brake fluids, compared to Q4 of 2021. In March, the price of n-Butanol in Germany surged to USD 2870/ton FD Hamburg. A surge in upstream propylene and ethylene oxide prices due to the Russian invasion in Ukraine led to escalating costs of n-Butanol. Tight supply in the oxo alcohol and decreasing inventories instigated soaring prices of n-Butanol. The growth of construction industry, in emerging industries with increasing demand, rapid urbanization and industrialization is propelling the demand for n-Butanol.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
Overall stability was witnessed for Oxo Alcohols throughout the fourth quarter of 2021 across USA. Despite of key players heard raising their offers in order to sustain their profit margin, as input cost was rising exponentially. During the month of November, Crude price fell sharply during Asian trading with ICE Brent future falling amid heightening concern of oversupply of crude oil and rising fears over COVID related uncertainties. As the upstream prices declined, the supply started exceeding the demand from the country’s paint manufacturers.Consequently, during December, price dynamics was changed and that change in price dynamics was very marginal and traders marked overall price stability for the product in the US market. Thus, n-Butanol prices stood around USD 2490/MT FOB during the mid of November.
Asia
Slow offtakes and low upstream cost induced cost dullness for major acrylates across Asian market during Q1 2021. Despite Indian and Chinese market dynamics varied with respective domestic factors, price trajectory remained similar for both economies. Demand fundamentals for acrylates varied country over country in APAC region. South Korean demand for Acrylates remained buoyant compared to previous quarters, as import as well as domestic production improved effectively. Consumption across Indian market remained healthy under festivities, while China remained dull inline with low production rate due to dual energy policies. Conclusively, prices of Oxo Alcohols declined effectively while n-Butanol stood around USD 1610/MT CFR during November in South Asia.
Europe
European market witnessed frequent ups and down throughout Q4 2021 on the back of changing market dynamics. However, during first month of the quarter key players heard revising their offers from October onwards, high energy and raw material cost remained prime factors behind this price hike. However, wavering demand induced dullness across regional market, which led to a significant fall in price of n-Butanol during November. Further, n-Butanol price climbed up marginally during December, despite of bearish market sentiments and hovered around USD 2025/MT during December in North-western Europe.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
The prices of n-Butanol rose effectively in the North American region during Q3 2021 followed by consistent demand from the downstream paints and coatings industries. The production of oxo-alcohols has strengthened in the 3rd quarter as the availability of raw materials improved which translated into increased operating rates and therefore, improved production across the region. Pricing remained on an upper note due to high energy rates and tightness in the global market. FOB Texas price of n-Butanol was noted around to $2380/mt in July. However, increased rates of raw materials have been a key factor that drove the strong prices for all oxo-Alcohols including n-Butanol throughout the quarter.
Asia Pacific
The domestic market outlook of n-Butanol witnessed an upward trajectory in the Asia Pacific region during the third quarter of 2021. The demand remained firm throughout the quarter from various downstream industries including Butyl Acetate and paint and coatings. In India, prices observed a significant hike during the month of July, in the effect of recovered demand from the regional market. Ex-works Kandla (India) prices escalated from USD 2131 to USD 2261 per MT from July to September. Post pandemic recovery lifted the demand for n-Butanol from the downstream derivatives manufacturers across Asia. The pricing trend of n-Butanol was reported rising in the Asian markets due to the surging demand and scarcity of raw materials.
Europe
In the European region, the supplies of n-Butanol ushered a steady improvement in the third quarter of 2021. Demand remained persistent from the downstream industries in this quarter as well. Offtakes were consistent from the automotive and construction sector along with the downstream butyl acrylate and several other paints and coatings manufacturers during the quarter. Some plant turnarounds led to constrained availability of product towards the end of Q3.
For the Quarter Ending June 2021
North America
The supplies of n-Butanol (NBA) in the North American region remained tight in the second quarter of 2021, even though some easiness in the supply conditions was observed due to improved plant operating rates in Q2. The supply chain improved with the return of several producing belts online and n-Butanol enquiries were bolstered from the downstream paints and coatings manufacturing industries. Offtakes were exceptional from the derivatives such as Butyl Acetate while raw material Propylene continued to remain firm. Strong demand, which surpassed the regional supply capacity resulted in continuous up stride on the pricing trend with FOB Texas discussion in June settled at USD 2305 per tonne.
Asia Pacific
During the second quarter of 2021, supplies of n-Butanol (NBA) in the Asia Pacific region were tight owing to the reduced offtakes from the downstream manufacturing industries. The demand outlook in India was dented due to sudden rise in COVID cases which subdued the market activities. hence, the buyers were reluctant to procure the commodity amidst the hovering uncertainties throughout the first half of the quarter. China reported firm n-Butanol pricing due to tight Propylene market. While demand outlook is firmed from various downstream Butyl Acetate and paint and coating sector. The pricing trend in India slumped in the second quarter with Ex-Works Kandla (India) discussions were assessed at USD 2045 per tonne in June while FOB Qingdao (China) offers were prices at USD 2380 per tonne in mid-June. Longer lead times are further causing worries to the suppliers.
Europe
In the European region, n-Butanol (NBA) supplies were constrained during the first half of the quarter, as the major production plant of BASF (Germany) and Sasol were on a force majeure. Later, the condition improved alongside better import volumes from the US and Middle East. Demand was persistent from the downstream industries as accelerated vaccine roll outs, recovering downstream markets and public movement generated positive economic outlook. Therefore, n-Butanol offtakes were surged from the automotive and construction sector.
For the Quarter Ending March 2021
North America
During Q1 2021, n-Butanol supplies were tight, as mid-February freeze fallout in the US Gulf region triggered feedstock shortages which further concluded in steep surge in the prices of the product. The demand from the downstream automotive and construction coatings surged causing shortages in domestic supplies, hence the buyers diverted their attention towards imports from Asian countries. Translating the effects of transportation constraints and Propylene shortage, several manufacturers announced positive price correction during the quarter. OQ chemicals surged the prices of n-Butanol by USD 110 USD/MT in February for all its the March deliveries.
Asia-Pacific (APAC)
The supplies of n-Butanol were short in Q1 2021 owing to several plant shutdowns heard across the globe. During the middle of the quarter, the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays and decline in overseas imports propped up the regional NBA offers. In southeast Asia, BASF Petronas and Indonesia’s PT PON remained shut for maintenance. The demand stood healthy as the buyers sought for restocking activity due to buoyant demand for Butyl Acetate and Butyl Acrylate manufacturing. Combination of factors resulted in multi-fold surge in the prices of n-Butanol. CFR India prices gained by USD 880/ton in Q1-2021, whereas the CFR prices for March recorded at USD 2030/ton in India.
Europe
n-Butanol supplies in the European region remained tight during the first quarter of 2021, as the key producer BASF remained non-operational since the end of the second quarter. The supply shortness was further instigated by reduced imports from the US. Strong offtakes were reported from the downstream butyl acrylate manufacturing and several other paints and coatings manufacturer. Several manufacturers were heard operating at reduced run rates in the second half of the quarter due to tight propylene supply.
For the Quarter Ending September 2020
North America
By the third quarter, n-Butanol demand regained the lost uptrend with consumers starting residential construction and resuming delayed downstream projects. On an average, volumes produced stayed below year-ago levels but improved on QoQ basis as coronavirus restrictions eased early in the period. Increased raw material prices and constrained availability due the product outages at several oxo-alcohol production facilities in early-August which were resolved by the first half of September kept the prices afloat. The US’ n-Butanol pricing graph showed an upward trend in October with prices assessed around USD 890 per tonne in September with producers targeting better margins in Q4.
Asia
Asia’s n-Butanol market witnessed increasing demand from the downstream sectors during Q3 with import discussions gradually picking up particularly in northeast Asia. Growing economies such as China and India are adding up new capacities due to swelling n-Butanol demand for end-use applications such as manufacturing of butyl acetate, butyl acrylate, glycol ether, and direct solvents. However, the supply for n-Butanol remained tight during Q3 due to plant turnrounds observed in far east Asia. Producers in countries like China and Taiwan were heard operating at lower rates with minimum workforce which limited feedstock availability and hence irregular supply was witnessed in these regions. However, demand remained stable in China unlike others Asian counties in 2020 with large capacity additions and reduced export volumes.
Europe
The n-Butanol supply remained steady during the Q3 while the demand showed a marked uptrend as the offtakes from the downstream coatings and plasticizers gained momentum with trade volumes showing considerable month-on-month increase. While coronavirus restrictions eased early in the quarter, rising cases kept some limitations in place in the anticipated growth. Unplanned production issues prevailing on the feedstock front kept some run rates curtailed, creating uneven market recovery despite sturdy demand growth.
