US Cold Rolled Coil Prices Surge in Early November 2023 Amid Supply Constraints

In the initial week of November, there was an upswing in the Cold Rolled Coil prices in the US spot market. This was attributed to decreased production, leading to a reduced supply. The mills responded by raising prices, spurred by increased sales from buyers, indicating a surge in the steel Monthly Metal Index (MMI) at the end of October.

The surge in raw material prices in the preceding month prompted local manufacturers to scale back Cold Rolled Coil operations as mills faced financial losses. Additionally, demand from downstream automotive industries rose following the resolution of a strike involving three companies. The Cold Rolled Coil price hike in the US spot market was influenced by various factors, including escalating upstream steel scrap prices, heightened downstream demand, and diminished output, causing tight supply. The increase in steel scrap prices contributed to a 2.53% rise in the Raw Steels Monthly Metals Index (MMI) from September to October. Many Cold Rolled Coil manufacturing mills depended on scrap imports for production, but a shortage of dollars hindered raw material purchases from the international market. Despite fluctuations in raw material prices in overseas markets throughout the year, Cold Rolled Coil producing companies were unable to capitalize on the downturn due to restrictions on non-essential imports. Maintenance-related outages decreased domestic raw steel capacity utilization to 73.8% in the third week of October. Tighter supply conditions extended mill lead times throughout the month. However, despite supply constraints and positive technical signals, potential downsides pose risks to sustained higher steel prices. Decreases in employment and new orders suggest a lack of a turnaround in consumer demand, which is crucial for supporting Cold Rolled Coil demand and prices.

Concurrently, optimism is observed in the downstream automotive industries as negotiations between the UAW and the major Detroit automakers aim to resolve disputes. Automotive manufacturers are expected to compensate workers who participated in the strike, and discussions involve various contract proposals. Despite a tighter supply, a lingering downside risk may impact steelmakers' efforts to maintain higher prices. Moreover, global Cold Rolled Coil production is anticipated to decrease in the fourth quarter due to seasonal effects and is expected to decline significantly in 2023.

According to ChemAnalyst, Cold Rolled Coil prices are expected to remain elevated in the coming months, supported by increased demand, particularly in the automotive manufacturing sector in the US spot market. The US government's plans to boost employment further indicate rising demand for Cold Rolled Coil from downstream construction and business sectors.