For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Cold Rolled Coil market experienced a period of decreasing prices, influenced by several significant factors. The market was primarily impacted by a supply and demand imbalance, with excess supply levels leading to downward pressure on prices. Weak demand from key sectors such as automotive and construction played a crucial role in driving prices lower. Additionally, global market dynamics, including increased imports and trade uncertainties, further contributed to the pricing decline.
In Mexico, the market saw the most significant price changes, with prices dropping compared to the same quarter last year. The quarter-on-quarter charge recorded a decrease, highlighting the continued negative trend. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed a 2.6% decline, reflecting the sustained downward trajectory. Additionally, the excess supply, coupled with weakening demand, is contributing to the overall pricing decline in the CRC market.
The latest quarter-ending price for CR Coil (1 mm) CFR Manzanillo in Mexico stood at USD 1275/MT, signalling a persistently negative pricing environment in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) market witnessed a continued decline in prices, reflecting a challenging environment marked by weak demand and oversupply conditions. Several factors influenced market prices, including sluggish demand in key sectors like automotive and construction, leading to subdued consumption of Cold Rolled Coil. Moreover, the market faced headwinds from global economic uncertainties, ongoing conflicts, and regulatory challenges, all contributing to the negative price trends.
Germany, experiencing the most significant price changes in the region, saw a notable decrease in Cold rolled coil prices. Moreover, Overall trends indicated a negative change from the same quarter last year, with a further decline from the previous quarter in 2024.Additioanly, the correlation in price changes between the first and second half of the quarter remained at 2.5% decline, indicating a consistent downward trajectory.
The quarter-ending price in Germany stood at USD 850/MT of CR Coil (1 mm) Fed-Ruhr, underscoring the prevailing negative sentiment and challenging market conditions.
APAC
The third quarter of 2024 for Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) in the APAC region has been marked by a significant decrease in prices, driven by a multitude of factors. The market has experienced a decline from the same quarter last year, with a further decline from the previous quarter. Additionally, the overall trend has been negative, with a 4% decrease in pricing between the first and second half of the quarter.
China, as a key player in the region, has seen the maximum price changes, with prices declining consistently. Moreover, market dynamics have been influenced by a combination of increased supply, weakened demand, and global economic uncertainties. Additionally, the CRC market in China has faced challenges in logistics, raw material costs, and international trade dynamics. Furthermore, Seasonal factors, such as the off-season period and adverse weather conditions, have also played a role in the declining prices.
The latest quarter-ending price for CRC in China stands at USD 569 per metric ton, reflecting the overall decreasing sentiment in the pricing environment.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
During Q2 2024, the Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) market in North America experienced a downward trend in pricing, driven primarily by an oversupply and diminishing demand across various sectors. The quarter saw a consistent decrease in CRC prices, influenced predominantly by high inventory levels, reduced construction activity, and a sluggish manufacturing sector. Elevated interest rates continued to suppress purchasing activity, further exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties also contributed to a negative market sentiment, leading to cautious behaviour among buyers and restrained restocking efforts by service centres.
In the USA, the decline in Cold Rolled Coil prices was particularly pronounced. An overall bearish market sentiment prevailed throughout the quarter, accentuated by significant price adjustments from major steelmakers like Nucor. The construction sector's continued sluggishness, coupled with high interest rates, played a critical role in reducing demand. Moreover, the decrease in domestic crude steel production added to the extensive oversupply, further pushing prices downward. The correlation between reduced demand and high inventories was evident, leading to a 2% price drop in the latter half of the quarter compared to the first half.
The decreased pricing environment culminated in the latest quarter-ending price of USD 1245/MT for CR Coil (1 mm) DEL-Illinois, highlighting a generally negative pricing environment. The overall sentiment for Q2 2024 was undeniably negative, marked by continuous price declines and a challenging market landscape.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has seen stable pricing for Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) in the European region, shaped by various factors. The market has experienced balanced dynamics, with supply and demand remaining largely congruent. A steady influx of raw materials, coupled with moderate production levels, has contributed to maintaining equilibrium in prices. Additionally, the market has not been significantly impacted by external economic shocks or geopolitical tensions, allowing for a consistent pricing environment.
Throughout the quarter, prices remained consistent between the first and second halves, underscoring the stable market environment. This stability indicates a balanced market where supply meets demand without significant disruptions. The CRC price for FD-Ruhr (Germany) concluded the quarter at USD 894/MT, reflecting a stable pricing trend.
Overall, the pricing environment for CRC in Germany and Europe has been stable, supported by balanced supply-demand dynamics and strategic market behaviour. This equilibrium has fostered a consistent market sentiment that is neither overly positive nor negative, ensuring a predictable and steady pricing trajectory.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the cold rolled coil (CRC) market in the APAC region experienced a stable pricing environment, largely influenced by balanced supply and demand dynamics. Despite facing various challenges, such as fluctuations in raw material costs and moderate global economic growth, the region managed to maintain consistent pricing. Key factors driving market stability included steady production rates among major manufacturers, robust demand from the automotive and construction sectors, and cautious inventory management practices. The quarter saw minimal volatility in supply chains, contributing to the overall stability in CRC prices. Focusing on South Korea, which witnessed the most significant price changes, the market trends were marked by seasonality and correlation in price fluctuations. The pricing remained relatively stable, with the second half of the quarter maintaining the same level as the first half. The consistency in pricing throughout the quarter, with no significant variation between the first and second halves, underscored a stable sentiment in the market. The latest quarter-ending price for CRC (SPCC-1 mm) Ex-Busan in South Korea settled at USD 987/MT. This stable pricing environment suggests that while the market faced pressures from international competition and local economic factors, it managed to maintain a balanced outlook, neither drifting significantly upwards nor downwards. Overall, the Q2 2024 pricing environment for CRC in South Korea reflected a stable yet cautiously optimistic stance.
South America
In Q2 2024, the Cold Rolled Coil pricing in the South America region remained stable amidst various influencing factors. The market experienced a balanced equilibrium, with prices holding steady throughout the quarter. Several significant factors contributed to this stability. Firstly, consistent demand from various industries maintained a healthy market balance. Secondly, strategic supply chain management and efficient production processes ensured a steady supply of Cold Rolled Coil in the region. Additionally, regulatory measures and trade policies played a crucial role in stabilizing prices and preventing extreme fluctuations.
In Brazil, where the most significant price changes were observed, the overall trends mirrored the regional stability. Despite facing some fluctuations, the market in Brazil largely mirrored the stable pricing environment of the region. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter showed no significant price deviation, further reinforcing the stable pricing environment.
As the quarter ended, the latest price for Cold Rolled Coil (SPCC-1 mm) CFR Santos in Brazil stood at USD 743/MT, underscoring the consistent and stable pricing landscape that characterized the Cold Rolled Coil market in Q2 2024.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The first quarter of 2024 has been characterized by increasing prices for Cold Rolled Coil in the North America region. Several significant factors have influenced market prices during this period. These include supply chain disruptions, trade disruptions, and fluctuations in raw material costs. These factors have contributed to a tightening of supply and increased production costs, leading to upward pressure on prices.
In the USA, which has experienced the maximum price changes, overall trends was positive for Cold Rolled Coil prices. There has been a correlation between the tightening of supply and the price increases observed in the market. Additionally, seasonality has played a role, with demand typically picking up in the first quarter as construction activity resumes after the winter months.
The quarter ending price for Cold Rolled Coil in the USA stands at USD 1275/MT for CR Coil (1 mm) DEL-Illinois. This reflects the overall positive sentiment in the pricing environment for Cold Rolled Coil in the North America region during Q1 2024.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the Cold Rolled Coil market in the APAC region experienced a significant decrease in prices. Various factors contributed to this downward trend, including oversupply, reduced demand, and disruptions in trade routes. The overall trend in the region was negative, with prices declining by 16% compared to the same quarter last year. China saw the maximum price changes in the region. The market in China exhibited a stable to negative sentiment, with prices declining throughout the quarter. The decrease in demand from the downstream construction sector, adverse weather conditions, and disruptions in trade routes all contributed to the downward price trend in China. The quarter-ending price for Cold Rolled Coil in China was USD 621/MT for CR Coil (SPCC-1 mm) Ex Tianjin. This price reflects the overall negative sentiment in the market. Overall, the Cold Rolled Coil pricing environment in the APAC region for Q1 2024 was characterized by negative trends, with prices experiencing a significant decline.
Europe
In Q1 2024, the European region witnessed an overall positive pricing environment for Cold Rolled Coil. The market experienced an increase in prices, driven by several significant factors. These factors included strong demand from downstream industries such as construction, infrastructure, and automotive sectors. Additionally, limited supply and reduced inventory levels further contributed to the upward price trend. Germany saw significant price changes during this quarter. The market in Germany followed the overall European trend, with prices showing a positive trajectory. The country experienced a seasonal increase in demand, as construction activities picked up and the automotive sector showed signs of recovery. The price changes in Germany correlated with the overall market trends in Europe. The quarter-ending price for Cold Rolled Coil in Germany was USD 896/MT of CR Coil (1 mm) Fed-Ruhr. This reflected the overall positive sentiment in the pricing environment for Cold Rolled Coil in Germany. Overall, Q1 2024 was a period of increasing prices for Cold Rolled Coil in Europe, with Germany experiencing similar upward trends. The market was influenced by strong demand, limited supply, and seasonal factors, contributing to the positive pricing environment.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
The North American region witnessed a declining quarter for Cold Rolled Coil pricing in Q4 2023 due to the impact of various global macroeconomic factors. In early October, Cold Rolled Coil prices in the United States remained stable amid global macroeconomic pressures, including rising inflation and concerns about China's construction industry. The Inflation Reduction Act had little impact on boosting demand. LME warehouse stocks increased, signaling a supply surplus.
However, in the domestic market, Cleaveland Cliffs' price hike announcement, coupled with reduced production due to a UAW strike and increasing input costs, led to a subsequent price increase. Downstream construction and infrastructure demand showed promise. The Chinese government's stimulus measures globally contributed to rising prices. Interest rate hikes in the USA also played a role.
By December, Cold Rolled Coil prices stabilized due to reduced supply, increased order fulfillment, and positive market sentiments. Major manufacturers announced price increases, instilling hope for the upcoming months. However, trade disruptions in the Red Sea, EU tariff extensions, and a declining consumption rate during holidays affected the market, and the overall situation remained dynamic. The latest quarter-ending price of Cold Rolled Coil (1 mm) DEL-Illinois in the USA was USD 1170/MT.
Asia-Pacific
The APAC region's Cold Rolled Coil market witnessed a considerable hike in the price trend in Q4 2023. In the Chinese Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) market, the second week of September saw stagnancy in prices amid increased output and sluggish terminal demand caused by price slips and the impact of a typhoon in South China. Inventory buildup was reported in various regions, with limited room for iron ore prices to drop. Despite positive policies in real estate and manufacturing, their impact on the CRC market was expected to take time. By the last week of September, CRC prices remained stable as local downstream demand stayed low amidst decreasing inventories. In October, weakening demand from consumer goods and the construction sector, along with stable production and declining real estate activity, contributed to a static price trend. In the third week of October, CRC prices decreased due to lower iron ore feedstock costs, reduced downstream product demand, and market instability from stable interest rates. Industry participants adopted a "wait-and-see" strategy. Later it was observed that CRC prices in China showed stability, supported by a global production rate increase, improved profit and export rates, and healthy orders from local and overseas buyers, prompting mills to maintain stable costs during the recovery phase in the Chinese Steel Market. No plant shutdown was observed in the Chinese spot market during this quarter. The quarter-ending price of Cold Rolled Coil (SPCC-1 mm) Ex Tianjin in China was USD 660/MT.
Europe
The Cold Rolled Coil market in Europe during Q4 of 2023 observed a plunging price trend in the German spot market. In October, the German Cold Rolled Coil market faced stability with weakened demand from the automotive and construction sectors, attributed to intense competition and reduced market share for German automotive companies. Higher inflation and cautious government spending contributed to sluggish sales. Despite support for solar energy, economic uncertainty led to a "wait and see" approach, affecting demand for Cold Rolled Coil. In November, the market remained stable amid slow purchasing activity and temporary closures due to public holidays. Overseas competition and the potential increase in the European Federal Reserve interest rate impacted consumer behavior. Rising energy costs benefited major steel makers but posed challenges for small-scale fabricators. December saw low demand, maintenance shutdowns at major Italian manufacturer Acciaierie d’Italia, and disruptions in international shipping routes. The market ended the year with a slight upward trend in prices, with a wait-and-see sentiment prevailing due to uncertain market conditions and geopolitical factors. The Cold Rolled Coil price in Germany during Q4 of 2023 increased by 1.1%, with the quarter-ending price of USD 910/MT for CR Coil (1 mm) Fed-Ruhr in Germany.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
In the third quarter of 2023, the US steel market experienced a declining price trend for the Cold Rolled Coil. Cold Rolled Coil prices saw a modest 4% increase, mainly due to higher mill offers, though trading was subdued during the 4th of July holiday. The extended holiday period and concerns about managing inventories in the summer slowdown led to cautious steel purchases. US automakers temporarily shut down plants for maintenance, affecting steel demand. Cold Rolled Coil prices initially rose due to market dynamics but later declined, influenced by an unplanned outage at Steel Dynamics' Texas mill and a growing price gap between hot-dipped galvanized and cold-rolled coil prices. The market faced downward pressure in August due to lower offers and issues with rebar demand and scrap collection. Ongoing labor disputes in the automotive industry and inflation impacted the market. The United Auto Workers (UAW) strike threat added downward pressure to Cold Rolled Coil prices. Despite a stronger global dollar, prices remained stable, with reduced bids and logistical constraints contributing. The steel market closely monitored developments in the automotive industry, labor disputes, and inflation. Overall, the outlook for Cold Rolled Coil prices remained uncertain, with the potential for further fluctuations.
Asia-Pacific
In the third quarter of 2023, the Taiwanese Cold Rolled Coil (CRC) market faced a significant price decline due to a bearish market sentiment. Decreased demand in the automotive and construction sectors, primarily due to sluggish sales in the local automotive industry amid global economic challenges and higher interest rates, contributed to this trend. Additionally, Chinese manufacturers' oversupply and Australian anti-dumping duties exacerbated high inventory levels, prompting local mills to lower prices to attract buyers. The oversupply from overseas Chinese mills and the weakening global economy intensified market competition. However, by mid-Q3, CRC prices in Taiwan rebounded thanks to a more stable supply-demand outlook. Import quantities increased notably, with China, South Korea, and Japan being major sources. Import prices were higher than Taiwan's market prices, making China a competitive option. On the supply side, Taiwan maintained stable inventory levels, but decreased client demand led to reduced output, revealing spare capacity. Taiwanese steel mills raised CRC prices in response to higher raw material costs, both domestically and globally, despite stagnant overseas demand. Despite the economic uncertainties, the price increases generated confidence in higher downstream market demand, driven by imports from foreign countries.
Europe
In the UK, Cold Rolled Coil prices declined during Q3 as the European spot market remained quiet, reducing trade. European steel prices also fell due to poor demand, prompting mills to offer discounts, but buyers hesitated, anticipating more price drops. Major producers sought new customers, creating challenges for distributors with excess inventory. While some mills tried raising prices, uncertainty persisted due to high inventories and weak demand, especially in automotive and construction. Delays in deliveries, particularly for hot-dip galvanized coils, compounded issues. Although there was an expectation of increased demand in September, it remained limited due to low construction and automotive activity, leading to further price drops. The Wire Rod market in Italy faced similar challenges, with cost increases and reduced automotive demand affecting prices. Despite slow trading and weak demand, producers hesitated to lower prices further due to rising raw material and energy costs. Downstream demand remained lackluster, and restocking in key sectors was absent. Despite these challenges, consistent production rates and international demand provided some stability and optimism for future downstream market growth in the UK's Cold Rolled Coil industry.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
The US Cold Rolled Coil prices showed an overall declining price trend in the second quarter of 2023, despite of increasing price trend in the initial phase of the quarter, i.e., April. In the first month of the second quarter, the price of Cold Rolled Coil inclined in the US spot market as the local mills maintained a high base price that helped in maintaining a positive market sentiment for domestic and overseas buyers. The delivery time was reduced to 7-8 weeks from the previous 7-9 weeks. This led to a decline in the local inventory levels and hiked the price of CRC in the US spot market. Meanwhile, in H2, the market sentiment for the Cold Rolled Coil plunged as the economic instability increased amid the debt crisis caused by the failure of major banks across the USA. The economic condition worsened as the inflation rate rose, and the approval of the federal reserve hiked the interest rate. The buyers were shying away from placing large as the US CRC spot market got sluggish. Additionally, The decline in employment rate also impacted the manpower in the downstream US and infrastructural sector and led to a decline in demand for the Cold Rolled Coil in the US spot market. The local inventory levels were on a higher edge which provoked the US government to impose countervailing duties on the import of CRC from overseas Indian and European suppliers. At the end of Q2, the US government signed a deal to extend the debt crisis further for two more years. This gave hope for the upliftment of the US CRC market for the upcoming quarter.
Asia
The Chinese Cold Rolled Coil prices showed a declining trend in the second quarter of 2023. In the initial phase of Q2, the raw material prices, such as Coking coal, reduced as the production rate increased after the gain of profitable margins from the domestic spot market. The export rate plunged as the rising inflation rate and uncertain economic conditions decreased the demand from overseas US and European markets. Additionally, the trade became more stretched after the imposition of anti-dumping duties on Chinese-origin steel products by the accompanied effort from the European Union and the US government. The Qingming Festival and heavy rain disrupted the demand and consumption rate of Cold Rolled Coil in China. The downstream construction activity was also at a plunging rate as the arrival of the monsoon drastically affected the construction and infrastructural activity across the Chinese spot market. Additionally, the downstream automotive demand was plummeting as the hike in inflation rate reduced the buying capacity of local customers leading to an increased supply of Cold Rolled Coil. The Chinese government applied some economic stimulus to overcome the declining price trend of CRC at the end of the Second Quarter of 2023.
Europe
In the second quarter, the price of Italian-made Cold Rolled Coil increased in the initial phase of Q2, but later overall decline was observed in the H2 of the second quarter. In April, the price of Cold Rolled Coil surged in the Italian spot market. The downstream automotive industry was also showing a significant growth rate which led to sufficient demand in April and provoked the local Italian Steel mills to increase the price of CRC. The inventory levels declined in the initial phase of Q2 as the overseas delivery time was delayed from the ArcelorMittal plant in Italy. Meanwhile, in H2 of the second quarter, the situation decreased. The economic downturn in the global market had adversely affected the market sentiment for Cold Rolled Coil in the entire Europe. The declining construction activity reduced the consumption rate of CRC and led to mounting inventory levels in the Italian spot market. The labor shortage in overall Europe affected the construction work in Italy also. The Italian government's plans to increase interest rates led to shying tendency from the buyers' side, and this provoked the Italian steel mills to decrease their offer price in the H2 of the second quarter. Additionally, the downstream automobile industry declined. The European Union imposed dumping duties on the imported Cold Rolled Coil from the overseas Chinese and Indian markets.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
In the first quarter of 2023, the US Cold Rolled Coil market saw an unprecedented surge in prices as mills attempted to push prices up due to a tight market and longer lead times. Supply constraints were exacerbated by planned outages and failed mill ramp-ups, prompting steelmakers to take command of output levels. Steelmakers tightened their grip on production levels, dropping capacity utilization rates below 80%. However, demand dynamics remained at a lower level despite rising prices, making buyers hesitant to make forward purchases. The market reacted sluggishly to the price hike announcement, and spot inquiries dwindled as buyers attempted to determine whether a peak had been reached. CRC lead times reached an all-time high at the end of March, but the increased lead times did not appear to increase demand or allow mills to reserve more expensive spot tonnes. As a result, buyers continued to assess their order books and limit contract purchases to manage their inventories as the price cycle continued downward. As a ripple effect, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Midwest are assessed at USD 1230/MT.
Asia Pacific
In the first quarter of 2023, the Chinese market witnessed an upsurge in Cold Rolled Coil prices due to rising downstream automotive inquiries and fluctuating raw material prices. However, weak market fundamentals and a challenging macroeconomic environment compelled prices to remain volatile ahead of the Spring Festival celebrations. Additionally, the ongoing property sector recession and slow growth in manufactured exports affected Cold Rolled Coil consumption. Domestic Cold Rolled Coil mills enjoyed price advantages against rising overseas steel prices since January, resulting in their eagerness to accept overseas orders, and some had received so many that their production would last until March. However, terminal demand grew more slowly due to dropping prices and weather conditions. The Cold Rolled Coil output increased this quarter as the maintenance impact faded. At the end of Q1, the fall in total inventory and social inventory narrowed while in-plant inventory climbed. Falling CRC prices led to terminal refilling, resulting in a decrease in inventories. The CR Coil (SPCC-1 mm) prices for Ex Tianjin are currently fixed at USD 735/MT due to the ripple effect.
Europe
In Q1 2023, the European Cold Rolled Coil market experienced an uptrend in prices. Domestic manufacturers maintained high offers for cold-rolled, citing good order books and limited availability. However, buyers resisted higher prices due to still-slow end-user demand. Steelmakers offered second-quarter production material after selling out of the first-quarter rolling coil. Some mills in Germany and Italy reduced the availability of CRC by no longer offering the material. Despite buyer skepticism about the sustainability of the positive trend and limited trading activity, European steelmakers insisted on higher prices for the raw material hot-rolled coil. Steel mills producing CRC ran at reduced rates in mid-Q1, keeping the market balanced. Most mills in Europe offer May-June delivery CRC coil, while some German mills were sold out for June delivery. The current CRC scarcity persisted at the end of the first quarter of 2023 due to Acciaierie d'Italia production challenges, Tata Steel disruptions, no import bids from Turkey, and uncompetitive Asian prices. As a ripple effect, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Ruhr were fixed at USD 1060/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Prices for US Cold Rolled Coil dwindled in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to a lack of price direction and major logistics concerns. In the fourth quarter, the steel market awaited the outcome of contract negotiations between integrated steelmaker US Steel and USW, which expired on September 1st, 2022. However, the US government intervened to prevent a national freight rail strike by forcing union members to accept a deal and raise employee wages. Additionally, the Mississippi River's water level dropped in the final quarter, resulting in costly dredging, traffic congestion, and shipping delays. Furthermore, shippers were forced to limit the cargo volume their barges could transport to navigate the low water levels safely. High-priced raw materials had higher conversion costs in mid-Q4, with expensive pig iron inventories and higher-priced scrap inventories being the primary drivers of CRC mixed sentiment. As the holiday season approached in December, market participants reported little trading activity in the spot market. The market slowed as mills continued to raise prices in preparation for the Christmas holiday. According to market participants, CRC prices have risen due to trade concerns that winter storms will disrupt logistics and steel production in the United States. As a result, the Ex Midwest (USA) price of CR Coil (1 mm) was set at USD 1033/MT.
Asia Pacific
In the fourth quarter of 2022, the Cold Rolled Coil prices showcased an upswing price trend in the Chinese market amidst sporadic COVID lockdowns, logistics issues, and a shrinking demand outlook. In October, the prices of Cold-Rolled Coil plunged in the backdrop of shrinking demand and limited purchasing activity. Large Chinese mills resisted lowering their offers in export markets, while spot traders began to sell short. By November, nickel and steel had begun rallying again. However, suppliers remained rampant with an inventory. Furthermore, Chinese scrap prices rose in mid-Q4, but the price gains were offset. Additionally, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike continued to hurt the commodity market, so the market was pessimistic. Suppliers reduced market shipments as winter restocking expectations fell. In December, Cold Rolled Coil prices appeared bullish again, making the 2023 Q1 price outlook appear more bullish. Thus, the Ex Tianjin (China) CR coil (SPCC-1 mm) price was fixed at USD 666/MT.
Europe
Prices for Coil Rolled Coil in the European market fell in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to low demand, increased supply chain stocks, and cautious end-user purchasing activity. The European cold-rolled coil market remained quiet in Q4, according to suppliers, with some suppliers' discounts failing to stimulate trading activity and fill gaps in their order books. Despite this, regional trade remained subdued in Q4. Distributors reported large stocks of downstream coil purchased at higher prices in the first quarter to avoid restocking in the fourth quarter. To balance supply and demand, several European producers either stopped producing steel or reduced output in the third and fourth quarters of 2022. Mills believed that Cold-Rolled Coil prices had reached a bottom, with no room for further price drops due to higher production costs. Aside from low demand and overstocking, competitive overseas offers had pushed CRC prices in southern Europe lower. While some buyers need to restock, market participants stated that they would prefer to wait for the price to fall to its lowest point before replenishing stocks for the first quarter of 2023. Thus, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Ruhr are fixed at USD 854/MT.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
Cold-Rolled Coil prices in the US market plummet during the third quarter of 2022. According to market participants, lower buying activity and lower inflationary pressure caused Cold-Rolled Coil prices to fall. Although more significant buys and mill resistance appear to be influencing the market to set a floor price, the US Cold-Rolled Coil (CRC) pricing has continued to fall. Reports from Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor, and Steel Dynamics that they will increase production in the second half of the year as they ramp up production at three mills add to market gloom. Lower production levels were frequently blamed on weak buyer demand and, as a result, a drop in new orders. Market participants appeared unsure about the possibility of a price increase, citing a weak demand outlook. For most of the summer, CRC lead times were three to four weeks, but they have recently been extended to about four weeks. Plant closures have been announced for NLMK Portage, North Star Blue Scope Delta, SDI Butler, SDI Columbus, USS - Big River Steel Osceola, USS - Mon Valley Pittsburgh, Nucor - Berkeley Huger, Nucor - Crawfordsville, Nucor - Decatur, and Nucor - Hickman. Thus, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Midwest (USA) settled at USD 1430/MT.
Asia Pacific
Cold-Rolled Coil prices in China fell during the third quarter of 2022; China's pig iron and crude steel output fell further in mid-and late July as most steel manufacturers cut production due to rising losses. According to market participants, steel output cuts support domestic steel prices, which have fallen sharply since May due to weak demand and a supply glut. In August, stainless steel mills continued to cut output, and the market remained depleted of inventory. There was no improvement in demand outlook, and stainless-steel plants' overall production reduction effect was not as practical as expected. Some steel mills even increased production. As a result, merchants were highly cautious when making purchases. Overall demand was slightly lower. Demand for construction machinery, energy, and chemical equipment is somewhat resilient; automobile production has steadily increased; however, overseas interest rates have risen, demand has weakened, and export orders have declined. As a ripple effect, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Tianjin (China) settled at USD 692/MT.
Europe
Cold-Rolled Coil (CRC) prices in the European market witnessed a declining trend during the third quarter of 2022 amidst a sluggish demand outlook and higher production costs. According to market participants, Cold-Rolled Coil (CRC) is under significant pressure. Manufacturers struggle to fill additional orders and will reduce discounts for special offers. Furthermore, the downstream automotive sector reported mixed sentiments, with order intake reported as low but increasing. Given the lengthy automotive backlog, market players were cautiously optimistic that orders would be maintained in the future. Energy costs remained the main topic of discussion for downstream products, with production particularly vulnerable to rising energy and natural gas prices. Despite a lack of demand, downstream coils in South Europe were valued higher than their counterparts in North Europe. Therefore, the CR Coil (1 mm) prices for Ex Ruhr (Germany) settled at USD 964/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
The Cold-Rolled Coil prices showcased fluctuating market dynamics in the US market during Q2 2022. In April, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its repercussions on raw material and logistics further spurred the demand. However, the weak demand, limited supply, and fewer purchasing inquiries in May and June provoked Cold Rolled Coil prices to decline. Service centers continued to limit their purchases as the fear of plummeting prices and lower-priced imports grew. According to market players, prices for Cold-Rolled Coil (CR Coil) in the United States fell the most in May as Manufacturers continued to cut costs and buyers pushed for deeper discounts. Additionally, buyers' demand remained sluggish, and buying to contract minimums.
Asia Pacific
In the Asian market, the CRC market witnessed mixed sentiments during the second quarter of 2022. In April, cold-rolled coil prices surged due to the high raw material and coking coal prices. The prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine disrupted supply chains, skyrocketing raw material prices amidst traditional high demand from April to June. However, due to muted domestic demand and limited transactions, the Cold Rolled Coil prices declined in May and June. As per market players, the quotation offer for Cold Rolled Coil has moved sideways, while the tradable level has improved. Meanwhile, the downstream players adapted to the wait-and-watch approach, purchasing only when there was stringent demand in the domestic market. Additionally, as the ferronickel market's supply shortage eases and nickel prices fall, ferronickel costs have reduced and remained low for a short time.
Europe
During the Second Quarter of 2022, the Cold Rolled Coil prices declined due to lose demand from the end-user sectors. The Cold-Rolled Coil market ceased in April, with Easter and bank holidays muting the domestic demand. According to the market players, the CR Coil prices to buyers are stagnant, and the lead times are coming back down. However, the raw material prices weakened in April, and stocks at the ports have not been screened through the system. As per market participants, the European buyers persisted in holding back from making any new deals for CRC, expecting prices to revise further. Activity in the spot market remained weak, with distributors and service centers still holding sufficient stocks because of lower end-user demand. Downstream demand, particularly from the automotive sector, remains poor, with customers maintaining a wait-and-see approach.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
The first quarter of 2022 ended with a tight supply chain, persistently pushing input costs higher. Cold Rolled Coil prices have witnessed a rising trend in North America. In contrast, prominent manufacturers are expanding hiring quotations to reduce the arrears of incomplete work. Moreover, significant buyers have already pre-arranged their requirements until May and are waiting for June bidding to start. Additionally, higher freight charges push Cold Rolled Coil Steel imports up in South America in results liquidity shrinking. Strict supply limits caused substantial problems, as transportation and delays threatened to interrupt operations. Nevertheless, amid higher freight rates, Imports prices for Cold Rolled Coil in South America were primarily up.
Asia Pacific
In India, the CRC market witnessed an upward shift due to inflation in raw materials coking coal prices. The extended hostilities between Russia and Ukraine caused supply disruption in the value chain resulting in soaring raw materials prices. Amidst it, traditional high demand in April-June till monsoon sets may be another factor. However, the Indian Steel manufacturers have hiked prices of CRC by USD 30-40/tonne due to inflation in coking coal costs. Moreover, the ongoing conflict has widened the demand-supply gap in Eastern European Nations; the Indian Steel market players are highly motivated regarding CRC export. Rising logistics costs and pre-booking for exports comforting the market bulls in India.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2022, the ongoing geopolitical tension amid Eastern European nations has caused supply chain disruption. Moreover, Russia primarily produces raw materials such as Aluminium, copper, coal, and crude oil. Soaring prices of coking coal in European nations lead to power shortages. Amid it, imposed sanctions on Russia compelled production and value chain blockage. Thus, in Eastern European Nations, the soaring coke and imposed sanctions deterred the whole production and supply chain. Amidst this, competitive import offers and complete credit lines provoked the European Steel market players to continue to hold back bookings on Europe-origin CRC.
