According to market analysts, there was a sharp decline in global factory output in the previous months due to persistent supply disruptions, high inflation, and China's zero-COVID policy, all of which contributed to widespread recession fears and lowered recovery prospects in the United States. Following the consumer demand boom brought on by the epidemic that resulted in a flurry of shipping activity and surging prices, logistics and transportation industries have also indicated a rapid drop. Imports of several nutraceuticals and APIs, including Melatonin, into the U.S., are being severely impacted by the quick falloff.

Our bodies instinctively alert us when it is time to sleep thanks to the hormone Melatonin, also known as the sleep hormone. The hormone levels are at their peak at night as it gets dark and at their lowest in the morning as the sun comes up. One-third of Americans report that insomnia negatively affects their daily life, and many of them regularly take Melatonin supplements in the form of pills, gummies, or liquids in the hopes of falling asleep more quickly. There are no exact guidelines on how much or for how long to take Melatonin because it is categorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as a dietary supplement. However, ingesting too much Melatonin might result in nausea, vomiting, and even changes in blood pressure.

Since China is the country from where Melatonin is predominantly imported, long-term disruptions in the country's supply chain have severely impacted trade with the United States, which has been made worse by a labor shortage and clogged ports. Due to the zero covid policy in China, a number of local U.S. suppliers only made sizable purchases since they had enough inventory on hand and there was not a great deal of end-user demand. Melatonin prices have been steadily declining in the U.S. domestic market during November, according to data provided by ChemAnalyst.

The speed of U.S. rate increases is a significant additional risk. The U.S. Federal Reserve's gradual rate hikes could trigger capital flight from Asia and harm trade even more. Additional U.S. interest rate increases are anticipated to pressure other central banks to tighten their own monetary policies in order to prevent abrupt capital outflows, even if it means cooling already weak economies, according to analysts. The so-called peak season, when business picks up in advance of the holidays, is predicted to bring about a further drop in Melatonin prices.