For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The Melatonin market in North America showcased moderate stability during Q3 2024, with the United States retaining its status as the primary trading hub. Price levels followed a gradual downward trajectory, declining from $86000/MT to $81960/MT FOB New York from July to September 2024. This quarter's softening prices contrasted with the previous quarter's continued depreciation, as market gained momentum in the later in the quarter. The modest price depreciation reflected subtle shifts in industry dynamics amid steady broader economic indicators.
Despite the slight price erosion, consumption patterns from domestic nutraceutical and pharmaceutical industries remained dependable, while efficient logistics management helped maintain supply-side balance. The market demonstrated resilience amid persistent operational challenges, including maritime congestion, shipping costs, and distribution network intricacies. The gentle price decline was partially influenced by competitive pricing in China's market, a key Melatonin supplier, creating a ripple effect across the American nutraceutical sector.
The measured price depreciation, occurring gradually across the quarter, indicates evolving market fundamentals while maintaining underlying stability. This trend aligns with broader regional patterns, showcasing the North American Melatonin market's ability to adapt despite ongoing supply chain complexities. The delicate balance between regional demand, global supply dynamics, and logistical factors has fostered a nuanced yet stable pricing environment.
APAC
The Melatonin market in Asia-Pacific displayed a slight downward pricing trend in Q3 2024, characterized by measured market adjustments. China's market experienced modest price softening quarter-over-quarter, while maintaining its position as the regional price benchmark. The market witnessed a gentle decline in price levels, with export values easing from $77700/MT to $73025/MT FOB Shanghai between July and September 2024.
This controlled price depreciation reflected well-managed operational factors and steady market fundamentals. Demand patterns maintained consistent procurement from nutraceutical and pharmaceutical industries, both domestic and international, while supply elements remained abundant despite ongoing production costs and operational considerations. The interaction between production capacity and logistical frameworks facilitated a controlled market adjustment throughout the quarter.
Market stability, despite the price softening, was evident through steady buyer engagement and predictable order patterns. These consistent demand indicators, combined with efficient operational management including freight expenses and supply chain processes, allowed industry participants to maintain workable margins. China's domestic market continued to guide regional price trends, balancing international procurement patterns with domestic consumption dynamics. The coordination between production capabilities and logistical frameworks supported a controlled market adjustment.
Europe
The European Melatonin landscape experienced a gentle price decline mimicking the Asian markets during Q3 2024, with Germany's market dynamics serving as the key regional indicator. The quarterly performance showed consistent but slightly decreasing price levels between the first and second half, maintaining overall market balance. Despite historical volatility, the market demonstrated controlled adjustment with steady quarterly performance.
The measured price depreciation stemmed from well-managed supply capabilities and steady demand patterns amid high inventory levels. Manufacturing processes, particularly in Asian production centers, maintained optimal output levels influencing the gradual price adjustment in Germany. This was supported by reliable demand from pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors maintaining predictable procurement activities.
Germany's market trends continued to provide a benchmark for European pricing patterns, exhibiting consistent seasonal performance despite the modest price softening. Through operational challenges, the market maintained its fundamental equilibrium, underlining the European Melatonin market's inherent stability. The balance between supply capabilities, sectoral demand patterns, and regional market forces fostered a slightly declining but stable pricing environment, characterized by measured adjustment and market equilibrium across Europe.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
The second quarter of 2024 has been marked by a notable decline in Melatonin prices across the North American region, driven by several intricate market dynamics. Supply chain disruptions and a decrease in demand from key sectors such as pharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals have played significant roles in this downward trend. Additionally, a surplus of inventory and increased price competition from Asian producers have further exerted pressure on prices.
In the USA, which has experienced the most substantial price fluctuations, the overall trend has been consistently negative. Seasonal factors and the interplay of supply and demand have resulted in a complex pricing environment. Compared to the same quarter last year, Melatonin prices have plummeted by 20%, reflecting a stark contrast with the previous quarter of 2024, which saw an 8% decrease.
The quarter-ending price settled at USD 90,000 per metric ton of Melatonin FOB New York, underscoring the ongoing depressive sentiment in the market. The pricing environment has been predominantly negative, influenced by abundant supply, diminishing demand, and import challenges. Overall, the second quarter of 2024 has underscored a challenging landscape for Melatonin prices in North America, particularly in the USA, with a consistent downward trajectory driven by multifaceted market factors.
Asia Pacific
The second quarter of 2024 has witnessed a notable decline in Melatonin prices across the APAC region, driven by several critical factors. Market oversupply, coupled with subdued demand from both domestic and international end-users, has exerted downward pressure on prices. The Red Sea crisis has exacerbated shipping costs, disrupting purchasing strategies and intensifying cautious market sentiment. Consequently, producers have been compelled to lower prices to manage their inventories effectively. The increased production amidst declining demand has deepened the oversupply scenario, further pushing prices down.
Focusing on China, the region that experienced the most significant price changes, the overall trend in Melatonin pricing has been distinctly negative. Seasonality and fluctuating international demand have played pivotal roles in shaping this trend. From the previous quarter in 2024, prices saw a modest decrease of 1%, reflecting the sustained bearish market sentiment. A comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter reveals a further price reduction of 3%, underscoring the persistent downward trajectory. The quarter ended with Melatonin priced at USD 80,000 per metric ton FOB Qingdao, highlighting the ongoing deflationary pressure.
In summary, the pricing environment for Melatonin in the APAC region during Q2 2024 has been predominantly negative, influenced by an oversupply situation, increased logistical costs, and tepid demand. The confluence of these factors has resulted in a consistent decline in prices, with China seeing the most pronounced impact.
Europe
The Melatonin market in Europe largely mirrored the dynamics of the Chinese domestic market in Q2 2024, experiencing a notable downtrend driven by several critical factors. The quarter was characterized by a confluence of declining demand from key sectors such as nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals, coupled with hampered supply chain conditions. The availability of Melatonin stockpiles, especially from major Asian exporters, led to competitive pricing pressures. Additionally, the easing of global trade disruptions and reduced freight costs this quarter contributed to the downward price adjustments. Economic factors, including a slight recovery in inflation and improved consumer confidence, partially offset the downward momentum but were not sufficient to reverse the overall trend.
Germany, the epicenter of the price volatility, saw a significant shift in its Melatonin market. Seasonal factors, such as reduced consumption during warmer months and ample inventory levels, exacerbated the price decrease. The pricing environment in Q2 2024 reflected a predominantly negative sentiment, driven by an overabundance of supply and stabilizing trade conditions, overshadowing any minor demand recovery.
This downturn was further influenced by the easing of supply chain bottlenecks that had previously constrained the market. As logistics improved and production capabilities expanded, the increased availability of Melatonin intensified competition among suppliers. The quarter also saw shifts in consumer behavior, with changing preferences and potentially reduced usage of sleep aids during the spring and early summer months contributing to the softer demand.
The market dynamics observed during this period had varying impacts across the industry. While challenging for Melatonin suppliers, the lower prices potentially benefited consumers and downstream industries relying on Melatonin as an input. However, the prolonged price pressure raised questions about its long-term impact on research and development investments in the Melatonin sector.
Overall, Q2 2024 marked a period of significant adjustment in the European Melatonin market, with the interplay of supply, demand, and broader economic factors resulting in a notably bearish quarter for the industry.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In the first quarter of 2024, the Melatonin market in North America experienced a significant decline. This downward trend in pricing was driven by multiple factors, leading to an overall decrease in price trends. The USA witnessed pronounced fluctuations in prices, with values declining considerably throughout the quarter. Specifically, the price of Melatonin supplements dropped from $109900/mt in January to $93560/mt FOB New Jersey by March, representing an approximate 15% decrease over the course. The market conditions were influenced by various factors, including fluctuating demand, abundant product availability, rising freight costs, and a reduction in imports from Asia. To address these challenges, U.S. authorities collaborated with industry stakeholders to enhance the real-time monitoring of freight movements, focusing particularly on nutraceutical shipments from China.
The conclusion of 2023 was characterized by disruptions in supply chains and trade due to security issues in the Red Sea, resulting in significant increases in freight charges. These disruptions affected trade routes, leading to congestion at U.S. ports and disruptions in the Panama Canal, thereby impacting commodity prices. During the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays in mid-February, shipments were temporarily suspended. Despite anticipating an increase in demand for nutraceuticals, including Melatonin, following the post-holiday market recovery in China, the expected uptick in the U.S. did not materialize as projected. Nevertheless, demand in the U.S. remained low throughout the quarter, supported by limited inquiries from local suppliers.
Furthermore, with excess of supply on hand, U.S. suppliers adjusted their price quotes and narrowed their profit margins in March. The additional price decline in March was driven by reduced demand from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors, coupled with declining freight charges. This reduced demand was further exacerbated by an oversupply of Melatonin from domestic sources, complicating the market dynamics.
APAC
During the first quarter of 2024, the Melatonin market in the APAC region remained relatively stable, characterized by stagnant pricing trends. The market exhibited resilience with steady demand from both domestic and international end-users in the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors. However, various challenges such as escalating freight costs, port congestions, and a decline in consumer confidence exerted pressure on the market dynamics.
In China, each subtype of Melatonin experienced distinct movements, prompting manufacturers to reassess their pricing strategies to capitalize on fluctuating global demand. The Chinese market grappled with issues including diminishing consumer confidence, deflationary pressures, and reduced exports, contributing to a slowdown in market momentum.
An imbalance between supply and demand was observed, with reduced demand in January resulting in elevated inventory levels. Consequently, suppliers were compelled to significantly lower their price quotations. Specifically, Melatonin prices in China declined from $86400/mt in January to $85560/mt by March, illustrating the downward trajectory of pricing movements during the quarter. This decline underscores the challenges encountered by market participants in adapting to shifting demand dynamics and underscores the necessity for strategic adjustments to maintain competitiveness in a volatile market environment. Despite some positive data indicators, caution is advised to investors due to hindered economic progress resulting from sluggish international trade, declining domestic investment, and escalating local government debt. These multiple disruptions in the market warrant careful consideration when evaluating investment opportunities.
Europe
During the first quarter of 2024, the Melatonin market in Europe, especially in Germany, displayed pricing trends that closely paralleled those observed in both the US and China, with prices declining consistently throughout the quarter.
The European economy grappled with various uncertainties during this period, including volatile energy costs and the implementation of interest rate hikes, which created a delicate market environment for Melatonin. These factors added complexity to efforts aimed at stabilizing prices within the region. Until mid-February, several elements influenced Melatonin prices in Germany. The rising import costs from China, exacerbated by disruptions in the Red Sea and the Chinese New Year celebrations, placed downward pressure on prices and resulted in reduced demand. Additionally, fluctuations in currency exchange rates, such as the depreciation of the Euro against the USD, further exacerbated the financial difficulties encountered by German importers.
In summary, the Melatonin market in Germany was influenced by a combination of factors, including inflationary pressures, federal taxes, supply chain disruptions, and escalating energy costs. These complex challenges contributed to the overall decline in Melatonin prices and created a challenging operational landscape for market participants in the region.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America:
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the North American region experienced a notable decline in Melatonin prices, attributed to various factors. Firstly, the market faced instability and subdued demand, particularly from end-users in the nutraceutical and pharmaceutical sectors. This low demand trend persisted throughout the quarter. Secondly, an oversupply of Melatonin coupled with reduced manufacturing output contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Lastly, the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain high interest rates for an extended period raised concerns about future consumer confidence in the country.
The United States witnessed the most significant fluctuations in Melatonin prices during the quarter. The trend and seasonality of Melatonin prices in the USA remained negative, showing a correlation price percentage of -4% compared to the same quarter the previous year. Despite positive indicators such as job growth and a decline in unemployment rates, rising interest rates and inflationary pressures dampened consumer sentiment, impacting the dietary supplement industry. Melatonin prices began the quarter at $130,400/MT and concluded at $122,340/MT FOB New Jersey, indicating an overall decline.
APAC:
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Melatonin market in the Asia-Pacific region demonstrated a downward trend. This declining trend was attributed to a market imbalance caused by reduced demand from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries, particularly evident in November. In China, despite the increased production, the nation experienced notable price decreases attributed to sluggish demand both locally and globally. The decline in Melatonin demand in China's pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors was further indicated by the absence of fresh inquiries from overseas markets in the initial half of the quarter. From October to December, Melatonin prices in China declined from $91,700/MT to $88,140/MT FOB-Shanghai. In December, attention shifted to China's economy with improvements in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and increased consumer confidence, accompanied by a gradual price uptick. Throughout the year, China's nutraceutical market encountered mixed outcomes, with certain product categories experiencing declines while others showed signs of recovery. Due to the fact of the upcoming Chinese lunar new year, local suppliers started restocking their shelves with fresh supplies, resulting in enhanced industrial output and high prices, whose trend will be visible from the next month.
Europe:
In the fourth quarter of 2023, there was a mixed trend in the European Melatonin market. At first, the market had difficulties due to high levels of supply, which forced domestic companies to hold large amounts of inventory ahead of the December holiday season. In the first part of the quarter, price reductions were facilitated by a surplus supply of melatonin, a decrease in end-user demand, and an abundance of the substance on the domestic market. Even if there were not many changes in the fundamentals of the market, large inventories owned by domestic enterprises contributed to the decline in prices in Germany’s domestic market. China, a significant exporter, played a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics by reducing the price of Melatonin. Consequently, German importers benefited from lower prices when sourcing Melatonin supplements, leading to price decreases within the local market. Additionally, the absence of fresh inquiries from end-user industries such as nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals prompted local sellers to offer the product at relatively reduced prices. However, towards the latter part of the quarter, prices experienced subtle increases due to higher prices in China and increased demand in Germany. This shift in market conditions reflected evolving dynamics and demand patterns within the European Melatonin market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
In the third quarter of 2023, Melatonin FOB New York values increased by around 7% between July and September, from $120500/mt to $128840/mt, indicating a positive outlook for the market. Throughout the quarter, the domestic market for this nutraceutical remained optimistic due to the steady increase in demand for melatonin from the end-user pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors. Low inventory levels, which forced distributors to increase the prices by profits each month, have also been a major contributor to this development. The US economy's comeback caused a little reduction in inflation during the third quarter of 2023, but the Fed Reserve's raise in interest rates kept market participants on their toes. Beginning in the first week of July, the US saw a sharp spike in warehouse usage, inventory, and storage expenses. As a result, the price of storage and inventory rose, raising the cost of goods like Melatonin. In conclusion, Chinese merchants raised their price quotes in anticipation of China's golden week and the mid-autumn vacations in September in response to the rising demand from abroad, particularly the US, which caused the price quotations to soar even higher.
Asia Pacific
The price trajectory for Melatonin in the third quarter of 2023 exhibited a strong trend toward higher pricing, ranging between $88600/mt to $90300/mt. China's price increase for Melatonin this quarter has been influenced by a number of variables, but the two that have had the biggest impact are string currency (stronger Yuan (RMB)) against the USD and higher demand from end-user businesses, both domestically and internationally. China's economy grew at a slower pace than anticipated in the first half of 2023, but the momentum waned in the second half due to rising deflation, significant youth unemployment, and weak global demand. During the quarter, sustained Melatonin demands from the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors had a significant impact on the nation's dietary supplement sector. The strengthening of the Yuan and the fall in the value of the USD raised the cost of exporting nutraceuticals, including melatonin, benefiting the domestic sellers in terms of prices as they started quoting profitable prices. Inventory levels have been kept moderate to low by market participants who have satisfied the overall demand for items, while industrial output has remained constant over time. In the latter weeks of September, right before the Golden Week holidays, there was a minor increase in both freight and manufacturing as a result of an increase in international demand and inquiries.
Europe
In line with North American and Asian market patterns, the German domestic market for Melatonin displayed a positive trend in Q3 2023. In July, when things began to calm down and the economy began to revive, the German suppliers of melatonin began placing sizable orders to restock their supplies and meet the consistent demand for Melatonin across the country. The import of Melatonin from Asia, particularly China, remained positive throughout the quarter 3 on the back of the new queries from domestic pharmaceutical and nutraceutical companies. Since the strong US dollar has caused domestic players to pay high prices when importing goods from China, the depreciation of the currency (the Euro) has also been a significant contributor to Germany's price increase. On the economic front, the main obstacles impeding growth remained rising inflation and Germany's unfavorable manufacturing climate, and market investors maintained their wait-and-see attitude. According to the PMI figures, the eurozone private sector contracted in September, although the composite score rose slightly from 46.7 in August to 47.1 in September. There have been two interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) this quarter.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
During the second quarter of 2023, the price chart for the Melatonin market in North America showed a substantial decline. FOB New York prices fell sharply between April and June, plunging from $132200 per metric tonne to $115000 per metric tonne, demonstrating a drop of 13% through the quarter. A considerable decline in Melatonin demand from downstream industries in the US as a result of the regional suppliers' overstocking is the major reason behind the Melatonin's massive price fall. The nation's nutraceutical sector has demonstrated a fragmented pattern of market activity, notwithstanding the divergent views on the price of Nutraceuticals and APIs. The country's inflation rate has decreased along with gas prices during the quarter. The brief dip in inflation is believed by economists and industry professionals to be the result of lessening supply chain pressures, as they call it a blip. However, increasing labor costs might keep inflation high, which would likely lead the Fed to raise interest rates again in July. Because it is still unclear how the US economy is doing, market participants in the food and dietary supplement sectors continue to take a cautious approach.
Asia Pacific
In the second quarter of 2023, the market for Melatonin in the Asia-Pacific region displayed a downward pricing trend as discussions in China plummeted from $100830/tonne to $90200/tonne FOB Shanghai from April to June. As demand for Melatonin from the downstream pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors fell both internationally and domestically, the price decline that had begun in the latter weeks of April became highly obstinate. Chinese Melatonin makers had to offer their products at a lower margin due to the decreased demand and consumer inquiries. The Stats show that China's manufacturing activity decreased in June for the third month in a row, albeit at a slower rate. The data is being revealed as the government is coming under increasing pressure to expand stimulus expenditure in order to help an economy that is leveling out after an initially strong post-COVID rebound in Q1 2023. The June PMI also revealed a number of imbalances and flaws, including ongoing drops in both domestic and foreign demand, accelerating corporate activity declines, and escalating pressure on the country's pharmaceutical and nutraceutical industries.
Europe
The European Melatonin market was hostile in quarter 2 of 2023, with price negotiations lowering in the German market. One of the main reasons for the Melatonin price drop in Germany's local market was decreased downstream demand coupled with plentiful supplies. Gas prices for energy in Europe dropped to their lowest level since the start of the crisis in April. This fuelled expectations for a stronger economic recovery, which undoubtedly benefited commerce with Asia. On the other hand, an unanticipated rise in unemployment in Germany during June had a significant negative influence on the market climate. Retailers stockpiled Melatonin in warehouses along with other nutraceutical items and dietary supplements to avoid future shortages, which caused them to lower their pricing margins later in the quarter to get rid of their inventories. Although the country's Melatonin industry has not yet been impacted, Germany's inflation ascended by 6.4% again in June, raising concerns. Market participants are floundering and remain unfavorable about the state of the country's economy, like the rest of the world.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The price trend for Melatonin demonstrated an upward momentum during the first quarter of 2023, with FOB New York prices escalating from $130260 per MT in January to $133860 per MT in March. Considering the market instability in the previous quarter, industry experts had anticipated that the pharmaceutical and nutraceuticals industries would continue to sail through mixed sentiments during the first quarter of 2023. However, consistent demand for Melatonin throughout the quarter from the end users and reasonable inquiries from downstream suppliers maintained the market dynamics in the US. Since the supply chain and trade remained strong throughout the first half of the quarter, China's relaxation of its zero-covid prohibition was advantageous. This further reduced freight costs benefitting the commerce between the US and China.
Asia Pacific
The Asia Pacific region showed encouraging prospects for the Melatonin market in Q1 2023. The multi-trillion-dollar Asia Pacific economy, which had been severely struggling over the previous four years, received a boost when China decided to suspend the draconian COVID-19 restrictions during the first week of January. Prices remained stagnantly positive in the first quarter of 2023 in China, from $102555 per MT in January to $102000 per MT in March FOB Shanghai. The price of Melatonin in the local market for nutraceuticals and pharmaceuticals experienced a roll-over sentiment for two consecutive weeks in January following the Lunar Holiday, which lasted one week. Additionally, the Demand and Supply picture remained favorable throughout the quarter.
Europe
A rise in orders and shipments from both domestic and foreign markets helped the nutraceutical sectors in Europe get off to a strong start during the first quarter of 2023. Due to regular orders for Melatonin coming from the end-user market, participants in the local market experienced positive arbitrage for the vast majority of the time. Although the European market appeared to be moving in the right direction, China's COVID's unexpected reopening and the ongoing crisis between Russia and Ukraine reduced inflation pressures.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Melatonin prices continued to fall in the fourth quarter of 2022 as a result of ongoing market volatility in the US; FOB New York prices dropped from $159850/mt to $128500/mt from October to December. The Golden Week vacation in China caused imports to be restricted during the first week of October. Demand-related offtakes in the end-user sectors remained steady throughout the quarter, and the domestic suppliers' large inventories were able to meet the overall demand. Because of China's Covid lockdowns, Russia's unrest in Ukraine, and harsh weather, supply chains remained in danger for the majority of the quarter. However, as the economy started to expand and the ports had a substantial decline in ship backlogs following a protracted port backlog, the supply chain saw a steady improvement in the second half of 2022.
Asia Pacific
The domestic Chinese Melatonin market demonstrated a major decline in prices during the 4th quarter of 2022, with FOB Shanghai values falling from $137152/mt to $102600/mt from October to December. Due to the closure of industrial facilities for the Golden Week, the orders for China's industry-producing nutraceuticals, including Melatonin, decreased steadily during the first week of October. It was challenging for the market to catch up to the small rise seen in some downstream industries during the first part of Q4 because Chinese traders had to deal with a range of contradicting signals after a one-week break. Large inventories allowed domestic producers and suppliers to meet all overall demand for the whole quarter. In reaction to criticism and severe turmoil in the country, the administration revised its zero-covid policies, which once again made the country vulnerable.
Europe
Melatonin market in the European region matched the trend in North America and showed a downward tendency during Q4 of 2022. Due to the unexpected rise in Covid cases, which resulted in a continuous fall in demand, international demand was higher in the first part of the quarter than it was in December. Germany's production increased just little in October despite continuous energy prices and supply chain issues. However, Covid scenario as well as Russia and Ukraine conflict all continued to have a detrimental effect on the overall market.
For the Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
The market for Melatonin in North America demonstrated a declining trend during Q3 of 2022. The "zero-covid tolerance" policy imposed in China, a significant supplier, severely restricted the export of a range of Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), including Melatonin, in the US during the past few months. However, the domestic market had enough inventories to meet the domestic demand from the end-user sectors throughout the first half of the quarter. Numerous production facilities in China were forced to close during H2 of Q3 due to the heat wave and power deficit, and several nutraceutical manufacturing sites were under maintenance, which negatively affected the US trade. A number of businesses and industries blamed a variety of factors for the drop in demand in the US, including the lingering impacts of spiking inflation, supply constraints, rising interest rates, and heightened uncertainty about the outlook for the economy.
Asia Pacific
Melatonin's domestic market across the Asia Pacific region showed a downward trend during the third quarter of 2022. From July to September, FOB Shanghai discussions in the domestic Chinese market fell from $176000/mt to $146750/mt. This price trend has been influenced by a number of factors, including low raw material costs, muted consumer spending, and sluggish end-user sector demand. Due to the poor offtakes and the underwhelming downstream demand during the first half, big suppliers only placed orders for immediate usage. However, certain vitamin manufacturing facilities underwent maintenance once the markets resumed operations in the final week of July following the shutdown, which affected the availability of Melatonin that was there for both domestic and foreign suppliers. Power shortages and extreme weather conditions further negatively impacted the market dynamics in China.
Europe
Melatonin prices in Germany fell from $180223.64/MT to $148842.74/MT from July to September, indicating a downward trend for the third quarter of 2022. Germany's economic downturn this quarter was made worse by logistical problems brought on by ongoing transportation delays and protracted port congestion. The persistent port restrictions in China as well as the instability in Russia and Ukraine, have worsened the commercial situation in Europe. Offtakes in the end-user industries during this quarter were low to stable on the demand front.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
In the North American region, during the second quarter of 2022, Melatonin prices fell slightly in the US market from $187650/mt to $183100/mt. A long-standing supply bottleneck in the country was made worse by the COVID lockdown in China's commercial capital, which significantly delayed imports. Warehouses in Southern California were overflowing with supplies for inventory replenishment, leaving little room for the ensuing rush of imports. Domestic customers were concerned about high raw material prices the entire quarter because long-term inflation expectations remained anchored, the political climate between Russia and Ukraine did not improve, and crude prices were unpredictable. Import, consumer, and production spending gradually climbed in May as a result of the sharp swings in oil prices. Despite the Asian blockades, ocean cargo from China looked to travel without any problems through the country's major ports in June. Demand from the downstream industries, however, remained firm throughout the quarter.
Asia Pacific
The second quarter of 2022 saw a stagnant pricing trajectory in the Asia Pacific region's melatonin market. FOB Shanghai prices decreased slightly from April to June, from $178245/mt to $175450/mt. The country's melatonin production increased over the first half of the quarter, along with the rise in end-user demand. The final week of April saw a rise in COVID-19 cases in China, which led to a lockdown of major production facilities. This had various effects on the country's markets, including those for nutraceuticals. In terms of demand, offtakes from the end-user industries remained steady throughout the quarter. Numerous factories were prepared to offer the product at a discount toward the end of the quarter due to the high COVID duties to shift inventory before it degrades. During this quarter, the prices in India's domestic market decelerated from INR 15250550/mt to INR 15125775/mt.
Europe
Prices for Melatonin remained high in Europe during the second quarter of 2022, albeit they began to drop at the end of June. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which increased freight costs and disrupted the European supply chain, severely limited trade activity from importing nations. Demand from end-user industries like the pharmaceutical and nutraceutical sectors remained constant during the entire quarter. However, there were enough supplies at the suppliers to meet the whole domestic demand.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
North America
Melatonin prices in North America increased by 5.49 percent in the first quarter of 2022, rising from USD175545/mt to USD185190/mt between January and March. Demand fundamentals in H1 of Q1, 2022 remained robust, owing to continuous consumption in the domestic market, which has seen a large increase in demand among Americans. On the supply front, as dealers refilled their stockpiles in preparation for the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays, supplies were sufficient to meet consumer demand throughout the first quarter of 2022. High freight charges, protracted port congestion, and a disrupted supply chain, on the other hand, contributed to Melatonin's higher price trend in the US market.
Asia Pacific
On the strength of consistent intakes in the pharmaceutical and nutraceuticals industries, Melatonin prices rose effectively across the Asia Pacific region in the first quarter of 2022. In China, FOB prices for Qingdao and Shanghai were assessed at USD176275/mt and USD178245/mt in the month ending March, respectively. The supply chain for Melatonin, as well as numerous other active pharmaceutical ingredients, was disrupted after Chinese authorities clamped down on the movement of Tianjin, one of the main ports in Northern China, which had further reinforced the product's price trend across China. Melatonin demand increased dramatically across the country as it became popular among Chinese youngsters for treating sleep disorders. Increased raw material prices in the country have had a further impact on melatonin spot market prices. In the Indian domestic market, the market trend of Melatonin remained in an upward trajectory after the pharma grade prices got settled at USD120766/mt in March 2022.
Europe
After a minor increase in price during Q1 of 2022, Melatonin costs in Europe began to resemble those in North America. On the demand side, the Nutraceutical and Pharmaceutical industries' offtakes remained solid throughout the quarter. Limited supply, on the other hand, combined with expensive freight and transportation costs, continued to irritate market attitudes across the region.
For the Quarter Ending December 2021
North America
The domestic Melatonin market in the US, North America witnessed mixed sentiments in the fourth quarter of 2021. The pricing trend of Melatonin observed a decline of 0.7%, as the prices for FOB New Jersey deescalated from USD 178705/MT to USD 177400/MT from October to December. Several market players remarked that demand for Melatonin has subdued following a traditional pattern where it generally declines towards Q4. The logistics availability increased in the month of November on the back of the improved supply chains across the US.
After the devastating hurricane season, stability in the shipping industry was also observed. These factors have contributed towards strengthening supply fundamentals during this quarter. It is anticipated that the Melatonin prices may increase in quarter 1 of 2022 along with the improved demand.
Asia Pacific
In the 4th quarter of 2021, the pricing trend of Melatonin demonstrated an improvement across the Asia Pacific region. In the Chinese domestic market, the prices of Melatonin observed a slight increment and were settled at USD 151075/MT and USD 151175/MT for FOB Qingdao and FOB Shanghai, respectively in the week ending of December. One of the leading Melatonin suppliers revealed that the increased demand for sleep, stress, and mood-management products pushed up this year’s sales by 20%. In the month of November, the market sentiments strengthened in China as inquiries and offtakes from the domestic as well as overseas buyers surged due to active inquiries from the consumers.
The country’s overall manufacturing output remained affected throughout Q4 due to soaring raw material prices compelled by the shortage of coal and gas due to power cuts in China which further strengthened the manufacturer’s will to raise the offered quotations for the spot market. In India, the domestic market trend of Melatonin witnessed an upward trajectory as the Ex-Mumbai prices for pharma grade escalated from USD 133930.3/MT to USD 137771.2/MT in Q4 2021.
Europe
The market sentiments improved in the European region during the 4th quarter of 2021 on the back of the increased demand from the downstream industries. However, the supply outlook of Melatonin remained disrupted throughout the quarter on the back of the peaking energy crises across Europe. Soaring freight and shipping charges have also supported the price trend in this quarter.
For the Quarter Ending September 2021
North America
Overall, Melatonin market witnessed a bullish trend throughout the quarter where prices were assessed between USD 176.9 per kg and USD 177.6 per kg FOB New York. However, demand from downstream sectors has remained stable since past few months after it surged steeply in the previous quarters. Supply chain disruption due to logistics unavailability in the aftermath of peak of hurricane season and rising raw material costs were the major factors behind the recent rise in prices of Melatonin. Furthermore, resolutely high freight charges and longer lead times have worsened the market dynamics.
Asia Pacific
Prices of Melatonin were deemed high during the start of the quarter but gradually stabilized in the second half of quarter. In the beginning, uncertainties regarding demand due to resurgence of Covid cases kept producers vigilant which translated into low operating rates and strong prices of Melatonin. In August, although the demand from downstream sectors stabilized, however exacerbated freight and shipping charges further exerted an upward pressure upon the prices. Innovative marketing techniques in China gained attraction and resulted in high interest in Melatonin products towards the end of the quarter. Consequently, prices were assessed at USD 149148 per MT FOB Qingdao.
Europe
In Q3, Melatonin market remained strong in the European countries. Demand for the product has stabilized in the region as consumption levels from pharma and nutraceutical industries remained firm. Resolutely high freight and shipping charges, coupled with limited container availability continued to pressure prices throughout the quarter. Overall prices were deemed high in the quarter ending September 2021.
