In October 2024, Tri Ethylene Glycol (TEG) prices displayed a negative trend globally, influenced by various market dynamics. While the global supply for TEG remained relatively ample, weak demand, declining feedstock prices, and subdued seasonal factors put downward pressure on prices in several key markets.

In the European market, TEG prices showed a bearish trend throughout October. Prices in Germany saw a significant decline of 1.41%, primarily due to a lack of support from feedstock prices. The cost of Ethylene Oxide (EO), a key feedstock for TEG production, dropped by 5.11%, driven by the weakness in upstream Ethylene prices. Meanwhile, TEG supply remained abundant. However, demand for TEG was muted, especially for applications like antifreeze, due to relatively mild weather conditions. The anticipated seasonal rise in demand for deicing fluids, particularly in colder climates, did not materialize. As a result, prices for TEG in Europe declined and remained at USD 1627/MT CFR Hamburg by the end of the month.

In the U.S. market, TEG prices remained largely stable, with only a minor downward fluctuation of 0.8% in October. This stability was attributed to steady demand, particularly driven by oilfield activities despite a decline in crude oil prices. U.S. oil and gas production continued to rise, with companies optimizing well efficiency and maintaining production levels. According to the U.S. EIA report, production from the Lower 48 states (excluding federal waters in the Gulf of Mexico) hit a record high of 10.8 million barrels per day as of October 31, 2024.The increase in oilfield activity during the period had a positive impact on TEG demand, particularly in deicing applications. Oilfield operations use deicing products to prevent freezing in pipelines and equipment during colder months. This surge in oilfield-related demand helped stabilize TEG prices in the U.S., even in the face of declining crude prices.

Moreover, there are expectations that the demand for TEG in the U.S. will remain strong, especially with political pressures to increase U.S. oil production and exports. This trend is likely to support continued TEG consumption in key industries.

In Asia, the TEG market faced a more significant decline, with prices in China dropping by 3.76% in October. The primary factors behind this decline were weak downstream demand and the influx of cheap overseas imports. Chinese manufacturers experienced lower consumption of TEG due to the reduced demand from key sectors like antifreeze applications. With limited activity in the downstream markets, TEG prices in Asia continued to decrease, reflecting the broader challenges facing the market.

Looking ahead to November, analysts anticipate a slight uptick in TEG prices globally. The expected increase in demand for antifreeze in the downstream sector, particularly with colder weather approaching, is likely to support TEG consumption. Additionally, higher oil production levels in the U.S., coupled with stable oilfield activity, may provide some upward momentum for TEG prices. As oilfield-related applications continue to drive demand, TEG prices may experience a modest recovery in the coming months.