Rising Electric Vehicle Sales in Europe Amidst Challenges in Lithium Carbonate Market

Across the European markets, New Electric Vehicle (NEV) sales are rising month-on-month, and recent data on NEV sales in June showcased that successive growth in passenger car sales led by a 55% surge in orders from EVs which also outpaced diesel car sales for the first time in European Union.

In contrast with the comparable period last year, sales of BEVs increased by 49% during the second quarter of 2023 across 10 focus markets in Europe, which saw an overall market growth of 17%. The corresponding percentages are 67% and 19%, respectively, in the US and 49% and 29% in China.

More than 90% of the lithium metal produced globally is currently concentrated in China. The European EV market depends on China for many key materials, e.g., Lithium Carbonate or Lithium Hydroxide. Europe is enhancing its position in the EV market by introducing new businesses and building an improved framework within the region to reduce its dependence on China for Lithium Carbonate supplies.

However, Lithium Carbonate prices have been steadily declining since the beginning of the year, and in the first month of Q3 2023, the price of Lithium Carbonate Battery Grade DDP Antwerp dropped by 7.0% and settled at USD 48980 per tonne, down from USD 52670 per tonne in June 2023. Lithium Carbonate price has continued to fall due to deteriorating business attitudes throughout the European regions. The eurozone is currently in a technical recession, with GDP falling in each of the previous two quarters and demand deteriorating due to rising inflation in the area. Inflation in the Eurozone increased this month, owing mostly to increasing energy prices. The downstream lithium-ion battery manufacturing sector and Energy Storage Systems (ESS) market demand forecast were reported to be poorer, and consumers in both domestic and overseas markets demonstrated a wait-and-see attitude for newer purchases of Lithium Carbonate.

Superpowers such as the United States, China, and other EU nations are aggressively capturing critical resource reserves of lithium salts such as Lithium Carbonate in Africa, Afghanistan, and other underdeveloped/developing and politically unstable countries.

One proposed solution is for Lithium-producing nations, particularly those in the lithium triangle (*Chile, Argentina, Bolivia), to join a "commodities cartel" similar to OPEC. Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia have been debating the proposal since July 2022, when ministers convened in Buenos Aires for the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) meeting.

According to the ChemAnalyst database, Lithium Carbonate prices are expected to fall further in the coming weeks as analysts desire further confidence from the consumer sector for a healthy EV industry. The macroeconomic situation remains weak for now, and the overall picture reflects dampened market sentiments for Lithium Carbonate across the European Union.