Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto has raised its capital expenditure (capex) guidance for 2025 and is forecasting a significant increase in copper production, largely driven by an expected surge in output from its Mongolian operations. The company anticipates a 50% increase in copper output from its Oyu Tolgoi project, which is set to play a pivotal role in the miner's shift towards copper, a critical metal for the global energy transition.

Rio Tinto, traditionally known for its dominance in iron ore, is increasingly focusing on copper as demand grows for the metal, driven by its essential role in the development of clean energy technologies. The company has outlined an ambitious goal to produce 1 million metric tons of copper annually by 2030, positioning itself as a major player in the global clean energy supply chain. This shift is expected to further solidify its commitment to providing high-quality, low-emission raw materials for industries that are vital to the clean energy transition.

CEO Jakob Stausholm emphasized that the company is poised for a decade of profitable growth, with key projects such as the Oyu Tolgoi underground copper mine in Mongolia and the Simandou high-grade iron ore project in Guinea expected to be key growth drivers. Additionally, Rio Tinto's expanding lithium business, including its proposed $6.7 billion acquisition of lithium producer Arcadium, will bolster its presence in the electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain. Rio's Rincon lithium project in Argentina, which recently achieved its first lithium production, further demonstrates the company’s expanding footprint in the critical raw materials space. However, the progress of the Jadar lithium project in Serbia has been delayed by environmental protests, and Rio anticipates at least two more years before it secures the necessary permits to move forward.

In its updated guidance for 2025, Rio Tinto has forecast copper production to reach around 779,000 and 849,000 tons, marking a notable increase from the previous year. This growth reflects the company’s broader strategy to diversify its portfolio while continuing to capitalize on its iron ore assets.

As part of its long-term decarbonization strategy, Rio Tinto has kept its projected capital expenditure for sustainability efforts through 2030 within a range of $5 billion to $6 billion. This is a reduction from a previous capex estimate, underscoring the company's ongoing adjustments to align its spending with strategic priorities.

Despite these optimistic forecasts, Rio Tinto’s stock has faced challenges, with shares down significantly this year in both Sydney and London. On the London Stock Exchange, Rio's shares have dropped more than 12% since the start of the year, and investor sentiment has been impacted by calls for structural changes within the company.

In response, Stausholm defended the current structure, stating that Rio Tinto has yet to see evidence that altering its dual listing would benefit the company. The ongoing debate highlights the tensions between shareholders seeking more streamlined governance and a management team focused on long-term strategic growth.