Chile, the world’s leading copper producer, is reportedly preparing to reduce its official copper price forecast for 2025, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal published on Saturday. This move comes amid shifting global economic signals and growing market volatility.

The Chilean government is expected to adjust its estimated average copper price for 2025 down to a range between $3.90 and $4.00 per pound. This marks a significant revision from its current forecast of $4.25 per pound, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing an individual familiar with the preliminary calculations. The official announcement of the updated price estimate is anticipated by the end of April.

Earlier this year, in February, Chile’s state copper agency, the Comisión Chilena del Cobre (Cochilco), reaffirmed its forecast of $4.25 per pound for 2025. This followed an upward adjustment in May 2024, when the projection was raised from $3.85 per pound to reflect improving market conditions at that time.

In addition to the 2025 forecast, Cochilco had also extended the same $4.25 per pound estimate through 2026. Furthermore, the agency expressed optimism that copper prices would remain above $4.00 per pound well into the next decade, reflecting expectations of strong long-term demand driven by green energy technologies, electric vehicles, and global infrastructure projects.

However, recent developments in the global commodities market have led to heightened concerns. Prices for key commodities, including copper and oil, declined over the past week. This downturn followed the announcement of new U.S. tariffs, which have intensified fears of a potential global economic slowdown or recession.

These economic headwinds are pressuring major commodity-exporting nations like Chile to reassess their pricing assumptions. A downward revision in Chile’s copper forecast suggests a more cautious outlook, despite previous projections that anticipated sustained high demand and robust pricing.

Copper is a vital resource for various industries and plays a central role in the global shift toward renewable energy and electrification. As the largest supplier of the metal, Chile’s pricing decisions carry weight in global markets. Investors and industry stakeholders will be closely monitoring the final price announcement later this month, as it could influence production strategies, investment flows, and broader commodity market trends.

As of now, all eyes remain on Chile’s upcoming report, which is expected to offer a clearer picture of how the country views the near-term future of copper in an increasingly uncertain global economic landscape.