Resilient Demand Lifts US and China Cold Rolled Coil Prices, Germany Declines
- 16-Dec-2024 5:00 PM
- Journalist: Patrick Knight
With the week ending on 6th December, the global Cold Rolled Coil market painted a mixed picture, with regional variances. In USA and China’s Cold Rolled Coil market showcased resilience, with prices climbing due to tightening supply and booming demand. Meanwhile, Germany faced Cold Rolled Coil prices declined amidst a cooling domestic and international market.
The U.S. Cold Rolled Coil market prices increasing by 0.4% during the week. This uptick is due to production constraints and resilient demand. Additionally supply-side dynamics have been notably challenging, with production levels dropping by 1.9% compared to the 1.687 million net tons produced year on year in November. This decline is attributed to multiple factors, including operational challenges, cost pressures, and external disruptions. The situation has been further complicated by Liberty Steel's decision to temporarily idle its Peoria mill, creating additional supply constraints in an already tight market. Meanwhile, the demand landscape presents an optimistic picture, primarily driven by robust automotive sector performance. November 2024 witnessed impressive vehicle sales of 1,363,968 units, marking a significant 9.8% increase year on year. This surge in automotive demand can be attributed to several factors, including aggressive promotional activities and successful new model launches (particularly 2025 models). This Cold Rolled Coil robust demand, coupled with supply constraints, has created upward pressure on prices.
The German Cold Rolled Coil market experienced downward price movement, declining by 0.4% during the week. This reduction is due to complex interplay between robust production and weakening demand. Additionally, supply conditions in Germany's steel sector have shown remarkable strength, this upward trend is evidenced by the cumulative crude steel production, which rose by 5.0% to reach 31.58 million metric tons. However, these production gains come amid challenging industry conditions, as exemplified by Salzgitter Group's reported third-quarter net loss, highlighting the ongoing struggle between maintaining output levels and managing financial and environmental commitments. Moreover, the demand landscape shows notable weakness, which traditionally serves as a key consumer of Cold Rolled Coil. In November 2024, Germany recorded a 0.5% year-on-year decrease in total new passenger car registrations, amounting to 244,544 units. This downturn in Cold Rolled Coil demand, coupled with supply constraint, indicates a slowdown in market activity.
The Chinese Cold Rolled Coil market experienced prices rising by 0.4% during the week. This upward movement is due to combination of tightening supply conditions and improving demand fundamentals. Additionally, supply-side constraints have become increasingly apparent in the Chinese market. Tangshan billet stocks have decreased significantly by 32,600 tons to reach 791,700 tons, indicating tighter material availability. Adding to these supply pressures, Bayi Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., based in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, has officially announced scheduled maintenance for its 2,500-cubic-meter blast furnace. This maintenance activity is expected to reduce daily molten iron production by approximately 6,000 metric tons, with the shutdown extending through the Spring Festival period. Moreover, the demand for Cold Rolled Coil landscape shows remarkable strength. Additionally, passenger vehicle retail sales reached an impressive 2.446 million units in November, marking a substantial 18.0% increase year-over-year and an 8.0% rise from the previous month. This combination of strong sales has contributed to the upward movement in Cold Rolled Coil prices.
According to ChemAnalyst, increase in Cold Rolled Coil sales in both the US and China, likely influenced by heightened purchasing trends. However, in Germany, ample Cold Rolled Coil availability and subdued market confidence are expected to exert downward pressure on prices.