Polyol Prices Fell in the US Market Amid Sluggish Offtakes

At the beginning of the final quarter of 2024, the Polyol price movement tilted downward in the North American region. The market players revised their Polyol quotations negatively to improve offtakes amid increased inventory levels in the regional market. Buyers were cautiously making purchases as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in September 2024 from the preceding month and 2.4% year-over-year (YoY), slightly surpassing expectations but down from the 2.5% YoY rise in August. It indicates ongoing progress toward the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% target. At the same time, the US manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell from August to September 2024, remaining below the 50.0 no-change threshold. It marked the third consecutive month of decline in the sector's health.

The Polyol orders were moderate from the buyers due to the stable consumption of adhesive, pipes, and coatings in the construction sector. The U.S. construction industry has encountered significant challenges in recent years, with construction costs approximately 40% higher than pre-pandemic levels and ongoing labor shortages affecting progress. Despite these difficulties, the sector demonstrated resilience compared to global trends. Projects started increasing by 6% in the first eight months of the year compared to 2023, according to the Dodge Construction Network. Additionally, the Dodge Momentum Index, which tracks non-residential construction planning, rose by 31% in August year-over-year, indicating positive momentum in the sector.

Moreover, the availability of Polyol upstream Propylene supplies was firm in the regional market amid an increase in upstream Propane stocks. It negatively impacted the upstream cost support on the production costs of Polyol. According to the ChemAnalyst data sources, the Polyether Polyol MW 3000, μ 400-650 FOB Texas quotations witnessed USD 2050/MT at the end of the week concluded on 18^th October 2024, after a decrease of almost 5%, in the last month’s prices. Additionally, US container exports have increased this year, showing growth in the early months. In the trade between the US and the Far East, multiple loaded imports for each exported container. This trend suggests a decline in the filling factor for backhaul trades, contributing to the decrease in rates compared to the previous year.

As per the estimation, the Polyol price trend will alter, and Polyol prices will increase in the North American region during the final quarter of 2024. Demand from the polyurethane (PU) segment will likely improve, driven by the anticipated increase in foam demand from furniture manufacturers before the black Friday sales. Simultaneously, Polyol demand from the textile sector is likely to strengthen during the mid-quarter. Additionally, rising demand for propane for heating purposes could impact the availability of feedstock propane oxide, complicating supply chains. Furthermore, buyers will likely ramp up Polyol stocking practices in anticipation of peak winter demand.