Polycarbonate Prices Decline in US and Europe Amid Falling Raw Material Costs

In the third week of July 2024, the price of Polycarbonate in the US market decreased by approximately 6.8%, primarily driven by a 3% drop in the price of feedstock Bisphenol A during the same period. This reduction in production costs significantly influenced the downward price trend for Polycarbonate. Additionally, ample Polycarbonate availability, facilitated by smooth import flows of raw materials from overseas, contributed to the price decline. Demand for Polycarbonate from the downstream automobile sector remained sluggish due to ongoing economic uncertainty. Since July 2023, the US Federal Reserve has maintained the federal-funds rate at a target range of 5.25% to 5.50%, much higher than typical levels over the past decade. However, economists anticipate significant rate cuts over the next two to three years, potentially lowering the federal-funds rate to 1.7% to 2.0% by the end of 2026. The latest downward trends in inflation might make this pivot feasible. Slowing GDP growth and a slight rise in unemployment in 2024 could further increase the likelihood of the Fed initiating rate cuts sooner rather than later. Despite the price drop, the increasing freight rates continued to impact overseas demand for Polycarbonate, with the Asia-US West Coast freight rate rising by around 2% during the third week of July 2024.

Similarly, throughout this week, the price of Polycarbonate decreased by approximately 6% in the European market as raw material prices eased. The price of Bisphenol A dropped by around 6%, while upstream Crude Oil prices fell by approximately 2%. This decrease was driven by investors focusing on the prospect of increasing oil supplies and weak demand, showing little reaction to U.S. presidential campaign upheavals. Additionally, the US dollar index rose for the second consecutive day, following stronger-than-expected news on the US job market and manufacturing earlier in the week. A stronger dollar decreases the demand for dollar-denominated oil among investors holding other currencies. At the same time, the OPEC+ producer group is expected to maintain its current output policy, which includes plans to start reversing one layer of oil output restrictions in October. These combined factors contributed to the downward pressure on Polycarbonate prices in the European market.

According to ChemAnalyst, the price of Polycarbonate is expected to decrease in the coming weeks due to anticipated declines in feedstock Bisphenol A prices, driven by the smooth flow of cargoes from overseas. Additionally, weak support from Crude Oil prices may further influence the Polycarbonate market in the near future.