For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 has been challenging for the Polycarbonate market in North America, marked by a significant decrease in prices. Several factors have influenced this downturn in the third quarter of the year. The persistent low demand from key industries such as automotive and construction has played a crucial role in driving prices down. Additionally, high freight rates and increased imports have contributed to the bearish trend.
In Mexico, where the most substantial price changes have been observed, market dynamics have been heavily impacted. The decrease this quarter reflected the ongoing challenges faced by the industry. Furthermore, the -18% change from the previous quarter in 2024 highlights the continued downward trajectory. The comparison between the first and second half of the quarter, showing a 5.5% decrease, further emphasizes the negative trend.
The latest quarter-ending price of USD 2130/MT of Polycarbonate GP Grade CFR Veracruz in Mexico signifies the prevailing decrease in prices. Overall, the pricing environment has been predominantly negative, with stability remaining elusive.
Asia
The third quarter of 2024 has seen a significant decline in Polycarbonate prices across the APAC region, influenced by various factors. Market dynamics such as decreased demand in key industries like automotive and construction, disruptions in the global supply chain due to natural disasters, and the overall deflationary trend have all contributed to the downward pressure on prices. Japan, in particular, has experienced the most notable price changes during this period. The overall trend in Japan reflects a consistent decrease in prices, with a correlation between decreased demand and lowered pricing. Compared to the previous quarter in 2024, prices have dropped by 1%, with a further 1% decrease noted in the second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price for Polycarbonate GP Grade FOB Tokyo in Japan stands at USD 2115/MT, highlighting the persistently negative pricing environment in the region. Global ocean freight rates from Asia eased in early September as the peak shipping season came to an end. A similar trend is seen in the Mediterranean, where rates have fallen. Port congestion in East Asia remained a significant issue, although better transshipment practices helped to manage waiting times. Overall, the slight decrease in ocean freight rates suggested a potential market shift as peak season demand wanes.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the European Polycarbonate market experienced a significant decline in prices. This downward trend was further emphasized by a -15% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024. The market saw a continuous negative trend, with a -5% change between the first and second half of the quarter. Various factors contributed to the declining prices, including persistently low demand from the automotive sector, leading to oversupply and reduced production rates. The market also faced challenges such as reduced consumption, increased freight rates, and sluggish economic growth, all impacting the pricing environment negatively. Germany, as a key player in the market, experienced the most significant price changes, reflecting the overall bearish sentiment. The latest quarter-ending price for Polycarbonate GP Grade FD Hamburg in Germany stood at USD 2285/MT, indicating a challenging period for the industry characterized by decreasing prices and uncertain market conditions. This decline was further supported by the steady prices of feedstock Bisphenol A, which helped stabilize production costs during this time frame.
Middle East Asia
In the third quarter of 2024, the Polycarbonate market in the MEA region witnessed a significant downturn in prices, influenced by various factors. The Polycarbonate market experienced a challenging quarter. The decline of 1% from the previous quarter further accentuated the downward trend. Key factors impacting prices included weakened demand from the automotive sector, low-cost supplies, and reduced upstream cost pressures. Additionally, a persistent downturn in the futures market and an imbalance between supply and demand exerted pressure on prices. Saudi Arabia, in particular, saw the most significant price changes, with prices declining by 1% from the first half to the second half of the quarter. The quarter-ending price for Polycarbonate GP Grade FOB Jeddah in Saudi Arabia stood at USD 1835/MT, reflecting the prevailing negative pricing environment in the region. Despite some fluctuations, the overall trend in Q3 indicated a consistent decrease in Polycarbonate prices in the MEA region. The upstream Crude oil prices declined as the halting of production and exports was viewed by market participants as a short-term disruption rather than a prolonged interruption.
South America
Throughout Q3 2024, the South America region experienced a significant decline in Polycarbonate prices, with Brazil being the most affected. This quarter saw a negative trend in prices, influenced by various factors. The persistent oversupply of Polycarbonate in the market, coupled with weakened demand from key industries like construction and automotive, led to a downward pressure on prices. Cargoes continued to enter the Mexican market despite highway insecurities, leading to longer lead times for deliveries. Additionally, arbitrage opportunities from Asia and the Middle East kept supplies ample in the market. Bisphenol A, a key feedstock for Polycarbonate, also experienced a stable market situation, contributing to consistent production costs and further stabilizing prices. Additionally, the impact of external factors such as fluctuating global freight rates and currency depreciation contributed to the negative price trend. In Brazil specifically, the pricing environment was characterized by a consistent decrease in Polycarbonate prices. The quarter recorded a notable 19% decline from the previous quarter in 2024. The first half of the quarter saw a 5.9% price difference compared to the second half, indicating a continuous downward trajectory. The quarter-ending price for Polycarbonate GP Grade CFR Santos in Brazil stood at USD 2010/MT, reflecting the prevailing negative sentiment in the market.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Polycarbonate (PC) market experienced a notable decline in prices due to several macroeconomic and sector-specific factors. The quarter saw reduced production costs driven by falling feedstock prices, particularly Bisphenol A, and a continued decrease in crude oil prices, which collectively lowered manufacturing expenses for Polycarbonate. Despite moderate to high supply levels, demand remained average, especially from key industries such as automobiles and construction.
Elevated freight rates further complicated the export landscape, dampening overseas demand and contributing to the bearish market sentiment. In the USA, where the most significant price changes occurred, the Polycarbonate market showed a consistent downward trend. Prices fell by 34% compared to the same quarter last year, indicating substantial year-over-year erosion. From the previous quarter, prices dropped by 3%, reflecting a steady bearish trend.
Seasonal factors also played a role, with a 9% decline between the first and second halves of the quarter, highlighting the impact of seasonal demand fluctuations. By the end of the quarter, the price of Polycarbonate GP Grade DDP US Gulf was USD 2293/MT, reflecting a negative market sentiment marked by oversupply and reduced export viability amid ongoing economic and logistical challenges.
APAC
In Q2 2024, the Polycarbonate (PC) market in the APAC region experienced significant fluctuations influenced by a myriad of factors, culminating in an overall positive pricing environment. The quarter has been marked by strong demand amid supply constraints, driven by several pivotal elements such as escalating feedstock prices, particularly bisphenol A, and an increase in upstream crude oil rates. Seasonal demand peaks, especially from the construction and automobile sectors, further exacerbated the upward pressure on prices. Additionally, global freight rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainties have compounded supply chain disruptions, adding to the cost burdens faced by manufacturers. Focusing on Japan, the market observed the most pronounced price changes within the APAC region. The Japanese PC market was heavily impacted by the aforementioned global factors, with a notable -9% year-over-year price change and a -3% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024. Despite these declines, the second half of the quarter saw a 1% rise compared to the first half, reflecting a late-quarter recovery. This trend underscores the intricate balance between supply and demand, influenced by seasonality and market sentiment. The quarter concluded with Polycarbonate GP Grade FOB Tokyo prices at USD 2183/MT, indicative of a complex yet resilient pricing environment. Overall, the PC market in the APAC region showcased a positive pricing trajectory amidst global economic pressures, with Japan exemplifying the dynamic interplay of market forces. The increasing sentiment throughout the quarter, despite early declines, highlights the market's responsiveness to fluctuating supply-demand dynamics and external economic factors.
Europe
In Q2 2024, the European Polycarbonate market experienced a significant decline in prices due to a combination of factors. A notable drop in upstream crude oil costs, which fell by over 7%, reduced production expenses and pressured Polycarbonate prices downward. The market also faced an oversupply situation, driven by an abundance of raw materials and reduced imports from the Middle East and Asia. This oversupply was compounded by high inventory levels, as manufacturers had overestimated seasonal demand, which failed to materialize. The construction sector, a major consumer of Polycarbonate, also saw a slowdown, contributing to the bearish market trend. In Germany, the price declines were most pronounced, with a -32% change compared to the same quarter last year, reflecting ongoing market challenges and economic uncertainties. Additionally, the quarter-over-quarter decrease was -2%, and a -9% reduction was observed between the first and second halves of the quarter, indicating persistent oversupply and weaker demand. By the end of the quarter, Polycarbonate GP Grade FD Hamburg was priced at USD 2605/MT, highlighting the sustained negative pricing environment. Overall, Q2 2024 in Germany was characterized by a notably negative market sentiment influenced by both external economic factors and internal market dynamics.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Polycarbonate (PC) market in the MEA region experienced notable price volatility, influenced by several global economic factors. The quarter was marked by significant fluctuations in raw material costs, particularly for feedstock Bisphenol A and upstream crude oil. Additionally, the global freight crisis intensified market challenges, with container freight rates increasing by over 30%, further driving up shipping costs. These elevated production and logistics expenses were key contributors to rising PC prices in the region. Saudi Arabia saw the most pronounced price changes within the MEA market. Despite typically lower demand during the summer months, robust demand from the automobile and construction sectors led to a gradual price increase. Compared to the same quarter last year, PC prices fell by 12%, and there was a 2% decrease from the previous quarter of 2024. The price variation between the first and second halves of the quarter was minimal at 1%, indicating relative market stability. By the end of the quarter, the price of Polycarbonate GP Grade FOB Jeddah was USD 1890/MT, reflecting a stable pricing environment. While external cost pressures have influenced prices, the overall market sentiment remains balanced, suggesting a neutral outlook for the near term.
South America
Throughout Q2 2024, the price of Polycarbonate (PC) in the South American market fell by over 13%, primarily due to the impact of cheaper imports from the USA, where prices had decreased. In Brazil, prices dropped by 0.2%, 5.5%, and 8.5% in April, May, and June respectively. This decline was exacerbated by a weak trading environment in the region. The state of Rio Grande do Sul, which relies on both land (truck and rail) and maritime transport for domestic and international supply chains, faced severe disruptions due to floods. These floods blocked roads and highways, suspended railway operations, and caused significant delays at major seaports. The prolonged nature of these disruptions influenced companies' decisions on whether to establish alternative shipping routes or relocate their manufacturing and supply operations. Additionally, the downstream demand for PC from the construction and automobile industries was dampened by the adverse weather conditions, contributing to the bearish market trend in Brazil. By the end of the quarter, the price of Polycarbonate GP Grade CFR Santos (Brazil) was USD 2335/MT.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
During Q1 2024, the Polycarbonate (PC) market in North America experienced a downward trend in prices. Several factors contributed to this decline, including a decrease in demand from the downstream automobile industry and the availability of cheaper competing materials in the market. Additionally, the global economic slowdown and uncertainties surrounding the Red Sea crisis further dampened market sentiment, leading to a negative pricing environment.
Mexico, in particular, witnessed the maximum price changes in the region. Overall, the PC market in Mexico exhibited a decrease in prices during Q1 2024, with a notable decline of 14% compared to the previous quarter. This decrease was attributed to seasonality and lower demand during the first half of the quarter. However, prices saw a slight recovery in the second half, with a 10% increase in prices compared to the first half of the quarter. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter highlights the volatility in the market, indicating a challenging pricing landscape for PC in Mexico. The quarter-ending price for Polycarbonate GP Grade CFR Veracruz in Mexico stood at USD 2884/MT, reflecting the overall decreasing sentiment in the market.
Overall, Q1 2024 has been characterized by a negative pricing environment for Polycarbonate in the North America region, with Mexico experiencing the most significant price changes. The market has been influenced by various factors, including decreased demand, global economic uncertainties, and seasonality, resulting in a decline in prices.
Europe
The first quarter of 2024 was marked by decreasing prices for Polycarbonate (PC) in the European region. Several factors contributed to this downward trend in market prices. One significant factor was the overall decrease in demand for PC during this period. The demand from various industries, including the automobile sector, experienced a decline, which put downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the global market for PC witnessed a decrease in prices, further impacting the European market. Germany, in particular, experienced the maximum price changes during this quarter. The overall trend in Germany reflected the broader market sentiment, with prices consistently decreasing. Seasonality also played a role, as the first quarter is typically a slower period for the PC market. There was a negative correlation between the price changes in Germany and the overall market, indicating a consistent downward trend. Compared to the same quarter last year, the prices for PC in Germany decreased significantly. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at 27%, highlighting the substantial decline in prices. Furthermore, there was an 11% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter, indicating a continuous downward trend. The quarter-ending price for Polycarbonate GP Grade FD Hamburg in Germany was USD 3015/MT, reflecting the overall decreasing sentiment in the market. The pricing environment for PC in the European region during the first quarter of 2024 was predominantly negative, with prices consistently decreasing.
APAC
In Q1 2024, the Polycarbonate (PC) market in the APAC region experienced a consistent downward trend in prices. Several factors influenced the market prices, including sluggish demand from the downstream industries and a decline in the domestic bisphenol A market. The overall operating rate of PC remained stable, but the return of enterprise production capacity was slow, leading to a slight increase in supply. This, coupled with a lack of enthusiasm from terminal enterprises to purchase goods, resulted in weak support for spot prices. Among the APAC countries, Japan saw the maximum price changes in Q1 2024. The market conditions in Japan were influenced by the continuous decline in the domestic bisphenol A market and a lack of robust demand. The overall operating rate of PC in Japan slightly decreased, leading to an abundant spot supply. The market sentiment was cautious, and traders aligned their offers with the subdued market conditions. The demand from the downstream industries, especially automotive, remained sluggish, adding to the bearish trend. Overall, the pricing environment for Polycarbonate in Q1 2024 was negative, with prices experiencing a significant decline. There was an 8% decrease in prices compared to the same quarter last year and a 6% decrease from the previous quarter in 2024. The quarter-ending price for Polycarbonate GP Grade FOB Tokyo in Japan was recorded at USD 2158/MT.
MEA
In Q1 2024, the Polycarbonate (PC) market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region experienced a downward trend in prices. Several factors contributed to this decline. Firstly, there was an oversupply of PC in the market, which resulted in increased inventories. This oversupply was mainly due to reduced exports from the region, leading to a buildup of PC at ports. Additionally, the ongoing Red Sea crises caused disruptions in shipping and freight rates, further impacting the market. These disruptions led to higher costs and logistical challenges, which in turn put downward pressure on PC prices. Among the countries in the MEA region, Saudi Arabia witnessed the maximum price changes. The overall trend in Saudi Arabia was negative, with prices decreasing throughout the quarter. This decline can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the oversupply situation and the Red Sea crises. Additionally, there was a correlation between the decrease in PC prices and the decrease in crude oil prices during the quarter. Comparing Q1 2024 to the same quarter last year, PC prices in Saudi Arabia decreased. The percentage change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at 13%, indicating a significant decline. Furthermore, there was a price difference between the first and second half of the quarter, with prices dropping by 4%. As the quarter ended, the price of Polycarbonate GP Grade FOB Jeddah in Saudi Arabia stood at USD 1880/MT, reflecting the overall decreasing sentiment in the pricing environment.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the North American Polycarbonate market faced a bearish trend, marked by challenging operating conditions stemming from subdued demand both domestically and internationally.
The lacklustre demand can be attributed to an oversupply in the market, creating an imbalance. As the year-end approaches, promotional sales may prompt destocking activities, potentially leading to a decline in product costs. Despite a gradual decline in the preceding month, Mexico witnessed stability in Polycarbonate GP prices, with consistent supply from traders meeting the country's requirements. The appreciation of the Mexican Peso by 3.43% against the USD in the first week of November 2023 added a stabilizing factor.
Notably, the Polycarbonate GP Grade CFR Veracruz in Mexico experienced a significant 22% decrease in prices compared to the previous quarter, with a 1% decrease in price percentage during the second half of the quarter. The latest settled prices of Polycarbonate GP Grade CFR Veracruz in Mexico at the quarter ending December 2023 was USD 2754/MT. The overall downturn in Polycarbonate IM prices, influenced by weak demand and merchant hesitancy, suggests a potential short-term decrease in the global market.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, Polycarbonate pricing in the European region experienced a notable downturn, primarily driven by weakened demand from downstream industries. The market conditions were characterized by an oversupply of Polycarbonate, contributing to a subdued demand environment. The diminished interest in the product can be traced back to the prevailing surplus in the market. Downstream sectors, particularly in automotive and construction, exhibited a cautious approach to procurement, opting for essential purchases only. Despite this challenging scenario, the European market maintained ample material availability to fulfil domestic requirements, providing a supportive backdrop for the Polycarbonate market. Germany, a key player in the region, witnessed a substantial decline in Polycarbonate prices. This decline can be attributed to factors such as customer reluctance, geopolitical uncertainties, and higher interest rates impacting overall demand. The market trends, seasonality, and correlation price percentage in Germany for Q4 2023 all exhibited a bearish sentiment, with a notable -25% change from the previous quarter and a -13% comparing between the first and second halves of the quarter. As of Q4 2023, the latest price for Polycarbonate GP Grade FD Hamburg in Germany stands at USD 2927 per metric ton, reflecting the complex interplay of market dynamics and external factors influencing pricing trends in the region.
APAC
The fourth quarter of 2023 experienced a bearish trend in the APAC region's Polycarbonate market, largely influenced by a combination of sluggish demand and abundant supply. The subdued demand can be linked to businesses adjusting their inventories and adopting a cautious stance as the fiscal year drew to a close, resulting in a deceleration in overall demand. Moreover, weak customer demand allowed companies to address existing orders, leading to a substantial decrease in work backlogs. The surplus supply available to meet domestic needs contributed to a bearish trend in prices. Japan, in particular, experienced significant price fluctuations, with a -3% decline from the previous quarter and a -9% price comparison between the first and second halves of the quarter. Despite stable correlations between prices and seasonality, the overall market sentiment leaned towards a bearish outlook. The recorded price for Polycarbonate GP Grade FOB Tokyo in Japan at the quarter's end stood at USD 2347/MT. Looking ahead, year-end sales offers may drive material destocking, and the Polycarbonate market is anticipated to remain stable, characterized by moderate supply and low demand.
MEA
The Polycarbonate market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region witnessed a bearish trend during the fourth quarter of 2023. The market was marked by an abundant supply of the product, attributed to manufacturers and merchants stockpiling. This surplus, coupled with weak demand both domestically and internationally, contributed to a decline in prices. Anticipated cost pressures are on the horizon due to the tight supply of crude oil, impacting the price of the raw material Bisphenol A on a global scale. The industry's lack of proactive buying from downstream sectors indicates a more conservative and reserved approach, possibly influenced by prevailing market conditions or strategic considerations. Saudi Arabia, in particular, experienced a noteworthy 9% decrease in price compared to the previous quarter, maintaining a consistent percentage decline between the first and second halves of the quarter. The ample supply available to meet domestic requirements, coupled with lacklustre demand for the product, led to this declining trend in the price of Polycarbonate GP Grade FOB Jeddah. As of the latest update, the current quarter's price for the product in Saudi Arabia stands at USD 2076 per metric ton. These market dynamics reflect a complex interplay of supply and demand factors, cost pressures, and strategic decision-making, shaping the Polycarbonate landscape in the MEA region for the fourth quarter of 2023.
