Phosphoric Acid price witness a decline in March H1 amid weak demand and feedstock price

During the first half of March, there was a noticeable decline in the global market price of Phosphoric Acid. This decrease can be attributed primarily to a slump in the price of its key raw material, Phosphate Rock, which has remained stable over the past few months. This reduction in the cost of inputs exerted downward pressure on the overall price of Phosphoric Acid. Additionally, the fertilizer sector, which is a significant consumer of Phosphoric Acid, faced challenges during this period, leading to subdued demand. Consequently, market participants amassed considerable inventories of Phosphoric Acid due to weakened demand from the fertilizer sector. This surplus in supply allowed buyers to negotiate lower prices, contributing to the overall downturn in the market price of Phosphoric Acid.

In the European market, the price of Phosphoric Acid has indeed seen a downward trajectory in the respective period, primarily driven by a reduction in prices from major exporter Morocco. This decrease in the Phosphoric Acid price was prompted by subdued demand in Morocco and lower feedstock prices, affecting importing countries as well. Additionally, freight charges across the European market experienced a decline in the respective period, according to the Xeneta Shipping Index. This reduction in freight charges has influenced supplier actions, leading market participants to anticipate continued lower Phosphoric Acid prices. Amidst these conditions, the Fertilizer sector is facing underperformance, influenced by economic uncertainties, sluggish industrial activity, and reduced agricultural output. As a result, suppliers are encountering difficulties in stimulating demand and maintaining profitability in the face of prevailing market conditions.

In the US market, Phosphoric Acid has indeed shown a declining trend in the recent period. This decline coincides with subdued demand in the Fertilizer sector, with projections from Mosaic indicating tightness in global grain and oilseed markets throughout 2024. Factors contributing to this tightness include limited global stocks-to-use ratios for grains and oilseeds, as well as constrained fertilizer exports from China, which prioritizes domestic agriculture and industrial demand. The market is characterized by firm phosphate prices and low raw material costs, leading to elevated stripping margins expected to persist in the foreseeable future. In North America, strong demand has continued into the Spring planting season following robust activity in the Fall and winter. Brazil is anticipated to maintain solid shipments in 2024, driven by favorable barter ratios and the need for soil nutrient replenishment among growers. Similarly, in India, grower demand remains robust, with expectations for higher government subsidy rates adding to the positive outlook in the market.

According to the ChemAnalyst’s anticipation, the price of the Phosphoric Acid is expected to showcase bearishness in the upcoming sessions. This anticipation is based upon the downturn witnessed in the price of the Phosphate Rocks with respect to the subdued demand witnessed from the market participants. The supplier’s action is also anticipating the downturn in the price due to which the destocking activities is expected to continue in the future. These factors are expected to play crucial role in driving the price of the Phosphoric Acid in the global market.