Global Phosphoric Acid Prices Decline Amid Reduced Sourcing Costs and Excess Inventories

In the global market, Phosphoric Acid prices experienced a decline as of mid-September. This drop in the Phosphoric Acid price is in line with the reduced sourcing prices set by Moroccan suppliers worldwide. Interestingly, this decrease contrasts with the broader feedstock market trends, particularly sulfuric acid, which has seen a significant upturn in recent sessions. Despite this, the balanced prices of phosphate rock have provided some support for Phosphoric Acid production management. With respect to the recovery in the demand globally, the excess inventories availabilities has created surplus in the supply and the demand ratio. Furthermore, reduced freight charges across various global shipping routes have contributed to the overall pricing dynamics of Phosphoric Acid in the global market.

In Morocco, the price of Phosphoric Acid has declined to 940 USD/MT FOB-Casablanca. From the manufacturer's side, OCP reported robust financial performance in the second quarter of 2024, with revenues increasing to 23,660 million dirhams, up from 19,280 million dirhams in the same period last year. This 23% growth reflects improved market conditions, driven by a substantial recovery in demand across several importing regions and stable phosphate product prices, boosting the Group’s profitability. The supply of Phosphoric Acid remains sufficient, with steady production levels. In August, Jorf Lasfar port shipped 139,000 tons of Phosphoric  Acid, down from 174,000 tons in the same month last year, with September shipments scheduled at 26,000 tons, a decrease from 52,000 tons in September 2023. Notably, exports to India totaled 67,000 tons in August, with an additional 30,000 tons planned for September. Despite the positive demand and sales figures, market participants are holding excess inventories, which has mitigated the impact of feedstock price surges on Phosphoric Acid prices. As a result, the ongoing destocking trend continues to influence global pricing, preventing significant upward movement.

In the European market, Phosphoric Acid prices have declined this week, primarily due to reduced pricing strategies from major Moroccan exporters. Phosphate rock prices remained stable in August, while sulfuric acid prices are on the rise. PhosAgro, a key player in the European market, reported a 3.6% year-on-year increase in agrochemical production for the first half of 2024, totaling 5.9 million tonnes. This includes a 4.7% rise in phosphate-based fertilizers and feed phosphates to 4.4 million tonnes. Basic feedstock production also grew by 1.9%, with Phosphoric Acid production up by 3.9% to nearly 1.8 million tonnes. Despite these gains, PMI numbers have decreased, indicating underperformance in the manufacturing sector. Additionally, the Federal Statistical Office of Germany reported a significant 19.4% decrease in Phosphoric Acid exports in June, totaling 172,280 MT compared to the previous month.

According to ChemAnalyst's anticipation, the price of Phosphoric Acid is expected to trend downward in the upcoming sessions. This bearish outlook of the Phosphoric Acid is linked to the anticipated excess inventory levels among market participants, which are likely to create a surplus in the supply-to-demand ratio, thereby pushing prices lower.