In early March 2025, the markets for Polyester Filament Yarn (PFY) in China and the US showed divergent patterns, influenced by changes in raw materials, macroeconomic conditions, and regional demand-supply imbalances.

While Chinese market-maintained stability despite oversupply and sluggish downstream demand, the US saw a price reduction under the influence of the same market forces. Weak consumer sentiment and cautious buying patterns in both countries constrained price recoveries, reflecting persistent market uncertainty.

In China, PFY producers ran at lower levels of capacity to control inventory, but this was not enough to offset the current surplus. Additionally enhanced logistics efficiency following the Chinese New Year along with normalized supplier delivery times and weak feedstock PTA prices further improved supply chains efficiency, albeit only exacerbating inventory build-up.

While overall industrial rebound was seen in the manufacturing PMI, PFY manufacturers could not match output with the slow demand from downstream industries. Textile manufacturers remain cautious to make bulk purchases, confining deals to immediate needs, the optimism in the market was poor even though March signals the start of the traditional peak season. The combination of low foreign demand, soft domestic purchasing, and oversupply kept PFY market fundamentals skewed to the bearish direction, limiting any possible price gain.

The US PFY market, on the other hand, saw a sharp price fall, with a 1.6% decline being reported in early March. Regular imports from Asian markets, where manufacturers had overstock, added to the oversupply in the local market. Aggressive export strategies adopted by these producers, combined with low feedstock prices, and falling ocean freight rates, further pressured PFY prices. While logistical issues like extended lead times and labour problems continued, they did not severely impact overall supply.

On the demand side, downstream sectors like textiles, apparel, and home decor led a sluggish recovery, with retail expenditure falling by 0.22% month-on-month during February. Compromised consumer confidence, fuelled by fears of increasing unemployment, inflationary pressures, and cold winter weather, further restrained PFY demand. The market’s transaction centre of gravity moved downwards, with chronic oversupply supporting bearish fundamentals leading to the fall in prices.

According to ChemAnalyst, the international PFY market will continue to remain under pressure in the short term, with little evidence of any near-term rebound in demand. In China, the confluence of oversupply and conservative downstream buying behaviour will most likely maintain bearish market fundamentals, even during the traditional peak season. In the US, competitive import pressures and muted consumer spending will continue to bear down on PFY prices. Any pick-up in downstream industrial activity or recovery in consumer confidence, however, could bring some relief.