Optimism in Corn Market Soars Amid Irregular Harvest Pace

The pace of harvest for U.S. Crop Watch producers began swiftly last week but was hampered by rain towards the weekend, resulting in moderate progress for the week.

The Corn Belt region anticipates drier weather this week, facilitating an efficient harvest pace and aiding in the drying out of wet areas, particularly in Nebraska and Minnesota. Nevertheless, late-week showers could potentially disrupt field work in Ohio and Indiana.

This week, three out of the 11 Crop Watch producers have increased their corn yield expectations. The most notable increase occurred in eastern Iowa, where yields are surprisingly strong despite prolonged dry weather at various stages of the season.

The Crop Watch producers have been assessing yield potential on a 1-to-5 scale, with a score of 3 indicating average farm yield, 4 representing yields above average, and 5 signifying some of the best crops ever. The unweighted average corn yield for the 11 fields has risen to a seven-week high of 3.77, compared to 3.61 the previous week. This increase can be attributed to the preliminary result of a 5 in eastern Iowa, surpassing the earlier expectation of 3.75.

A yield of 3.77 for the average Crop Watch corn is still slightly below what was anticipated in July and August. It is expected to surpass the yield of 2022 but fall short of the 2021 yield.

Producers in Indiana and western Iowa have also revised their Crop Watch corn expectations this week based on results from other fields. Both are now at 4.5, representing a quarter-point increase from the previous week. The Minnesota corn field was nearly completed late last week but was halted due to rain, and it is anticipated to yield around 2.75.

The impressive performance of the corn in eastern Iowa, despite adverse weather, raises the possibility of improved genetics playing a role. Additionally, the field received more fungicide than originally planned. However, similar positive results were not observed for the eastern Iowa soybean field, which scored 2.5, one full point lower than the pre-harvest prediction.

The final Crop Watch soybean yield for 2023 is expected to reach 3.5, up slightly from 3.48 the previous week. The North Dakota soybeans were harvested on Saturday and scored a 3, a quarter-point higher than the previous week. The Ohio bean field is the last one remaining, and while it is currently in progress, it is expected to score a 5.

The states and counties where the 2023 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields are located include Kingsbury, South Dakota; Freeborn, Minnesota; Burt, Nebraska; Rice, Kansas; Audubon, Iowa; Cedar, Iowa; Warren, Illinois; Crawford, Illinois; Tippecanoe, Indiana; Fairfield, Ohio. The North Dakota corn is in Griggs County, and the soybeans are in Stutsman County.