Natural Gas Traders Anticipate Storage Figures with Growing Apprehension

Natural Gas prices surged to a fresh two-day high shortly after the US market opened, propelled by breaking headlines announcing US tariffs on Tin Mill Steel imports from China, Canada, and Europe. The unexpected move caused a ripple effect in commodity prices, fostering a favorable backdrop for Natural Gas to climb. Market observers speculate that the positive momentum could push Natural Gas beyond Wednesday's peak of approximately $2.77, with the potential to reach $2.95.

However, the ascent of Natural Gas prices faces opposition from a stronger US Dollar, which acts as a mitigating factor. The recent release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes revealed that the central bank contemplates further action, either through additional interest rate hikes or a prolonged maintenance of existing rates. This policy direction introduces the possibility of diminished demand, coupled with steady supply, potentially leading to downward pressure on Natural Gas prices.

Despite a sluggish start on Thursday, the surprise tariff announcement shifted the market sentiment in favor of Natural Gas. Traders are now closely awaiting the forthcoming release of the weekly Gas Storage Changes report at 14:30 GMT. Market consensus leans towards a rise to 34 Bcf, a development that could amplify the downward pressure on Natural Gas prices.

Meanwhile, a significant discrepancy between European and US gas prices has emerged. European gas prices experienced a notable upswing following news that Australian union strikes disrupted gas deliveries to Europe. Encouragingly for Europe, gas storage across the continent nears full capacity, with Germany's stockpile reaching 92%.

Looking ahead, weather forecasts indicate an elevated potential for a cold European winter, which could stabilize current gas price levels even with storage facilities at near capacity. In recent developments, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) inked a substantial 5-year LNG supply deal with Japan Petroleum Exploration (JAPEX), estimated between $450 million and $550 million.

Amidst the volatility in commodity markets, another notable development is the approach of Tropical Storm Hilary towards the Baja California peninsula, expected to intensify into a hurricane by Friday. Moreover, the latest FOMC minutes underscore the US Federal Reserve's discontent with inflation trends. This suggests a potential for prolonged maintenance of current interest rates or the initiation of additional rate hikes.

Recent trading sessions have witnessed Natural Gas experience an 8% decline from Tuesday's opening price, underscoring the delicate equilibrium between supply and demand. Minor shifts in either direction can significantly influence market dynamics. The release of FOMC minutes contributed to recent volatility, with the prospect of higher rates potentially curtailing Natural Gas usage and dampening future demand.

In this dynamic market environment, attention remains on the pivotal $3 threshold. The upward trend channel since April maintains its influence, and a resurgence in Natural Gas prices could be affirmed by closing above Tuesday's high of $2.935. Potential upward targets encompass $3 and $3.065 (August 9's high). Conversely, the trend channel continues to offer support, with the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) acting as a foundation at $2.639. Deeper declines would draw focus to the lower trend line at $2.579.