n-Butanol Prices in US and Europe Expected to Climb with Market Stabilization

In the middle of July 2024, the n-Butanol markets in North America and Europe have displayed notable stability after a period of turbulence in oxo-alcohol markets. Production challenges persisted in the US, where refinery and cracker damages limited the availability of essential feedstock Propylene crucial for n-Butanol manufacturing.

Assessments following Hurricane Beryl indicated manageable damages to Propylene facilities. ExxonMobil Chemicals reported operational normalcy across its Baytown, Baton Rouge Beaumont, and GCGV sites, having initiated hurricane preparedness measures. Despite these precautions, production activities remained cautious, though contractual obligations were maintained without significant disruptions, as confirmed in their July 9, 2024, press release.

Market confidence in n-Butanol prices was bolstered by announcements from OQ Chemicals and Eastman Chemicals. Eastman Chemicals declared a USD 110/MT price increase for the North American market on July 17, 2024, while OQ Chemicals announced identical hikes across North American, European, and Asian markets on July 12, 2024, signalling a stabilizing trend since their production resumption in May 2024, with both hikes being effective from August 1, 2024. 

Demand for n-Butanol remained subdued in downstream sectors like paints, coatings, and plasticizers, exacerbated by seasonal factors such as the monsoon-induced slowdown in construction activities. Notably, single-family housing starts in the US dropped to an eight-month low in June due to higher mortgage rates, dampening demand for n-Butanol further. As per the Commerce Department Bureau, single-family housing starts, representing the majority of homebuilding, declined by 2.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 980,000 units last month, reaching the lowest point since last October and keeping demand conditions generally moderate. Though homebuilder confidence dropped to a seven-month low in July, the National Association of Home Builders' measure of single-family sales over the next six months improved, which may lead to some improvement in procurement activities for n-Butanol.

In Europe, demand conditions for n-Butanol mirrored a cautious outlook amid ongoing construction sector downturns. Across major eurozone countries, including Germany, France, and Italy, production levels dwindled, with varying degrees of decline noted through June. German firms, despite a moderated output contraction, faced significant challenges, while France and Italy reported sharper downturns in their construction sectors.

Overall, while North American and European n-Butanol markets have stabilized, despite challenges persisting in production and demand sectors. However, despite demand conditions being moderate to weak, panic buying activities due to press releases are expected to lead to price increments for n-Butanol. Moreover, prices of Propylene are expected to further increase as supplies due to some Propylene plants undergoing turnarounds., which is expected to limit production of n-Butanol.