MMA Prices Follow Diverging Trend in European and US in October, Traders Share a Balanced Outlook for Q4

The Methyl Methacrylate (MMA) market in Europe has continued to show signs of bearishness during October 2024 as MMA prices in Belgium declined by 5.22% m-o-m, a trend driven by weak demand and an abundance of supply. The ongoing market conditions, characterized by low buyer interest and oversupply, have led to continued price discounts, providing some relief to buyers. This situation has been exacerbated by seasonal factors, with reduced fuel consumption and persistent weakness in critical sectors such as automotive and construction, both of which have failed to show meaningful recovery.

Moreover, the broader economic outlook for Europe, however, is also far from optimistic. Although a slight improvement in 2024 economic indicators has been noted compared to 2023, the European economic situation remains fragile. The Eurozone’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been downgraded, primarily due to a slower-than-expected recovery in Germany’s industrial sector. Therefore, with sluggish demand and subdued industrial activity expected to persist, the European MMA market is likely to remain under pressure throughout the remainder of 2024.

On the other hand, the US MMA market registered an incline of 1.7% m-o-m in October. However, the MMA buyers have shown hesitation to commit to large volumes, despite the positive underlying economic data. While buyers remain cautious in a volatile market, the U.S. economy has displayed resilience, with key indicators showing strength. Retail sales grew modestly in September, and GDP growth projections for the second half of 2024 remain solid, with an upgrade for the first half of 2025. This positive economic momentum has provided some support for the U.S. petrochemical industry, particularly in MMA production.

Another key factor supporting the U.S. MMA market is the availability of domestic feedstocks, which have insulated producers from the price volatility seen in other regions. This availability, combined with a significant price differential between U.S. and Asian markets, has left U.S. exports largely absent from the Asian spot market. In addition, rising freight rates have further hindered the flow of MMA from the U.S. to Asia, leaving domestic producers to focus on meeting local demand.

However, despite the current stance of the MMA market, the traders expect the final quarter of 2024 to remain relatively balanced, though challenges persist. In Europe, price softness is likely to continue due to the ongoing weak demand in key industrial sectors and the continuing oversupply in the spot market. However, supply constraints from planned plant shutdowns and the gradual recovery of economic conditions could provide some support to prices in the latter part of the year.

In the U.S., the outlook for MMA production remains steady, supported by the availability of feedstocks and a positive economic environment. The recovery in the construction and appliance sectors could drive increased demand, helping to maintain a more balanced supply-demand scenario. However, the uncertainty surrounding the political landscape and potential inflationary pressures could introduce some volatility in the U.S. market.