Global MEA Triazine prices are set to journey northwards in February 2025, driven by lower shipments from the Middle East and escalating production costs. Major feedstock producers, Indorama Ventures and Dow Chemicals, have already hiked Monoethanolamine (MEA) prices by USD 110.37/MT and USD 154.5/MT, respectively, tightening cost pressures and pushing MEA Triazine prices higher worldwide.

Demand for MEA Triazine is recovering after a sluggish January, but supply imbalances are emerging. While US and China have seen moderate recovery in demand, strong demand conditions  have continued to originate from India since the beginning of this year, prompting Middle Eastern suppliers diverting their shipments to Indian market. This shift has triggered inventory shortages across the US and China, intensifying supply constraints.

China’s demand outlook is strengthening as state-run refineries ramp up crude throughput to compensate for the shutdown of independent teapot refineries in Shandong. However, these refineries are facing severe feedstock shortages due to blacklisted vessels and expanded US-UK sanctions. Additionally, rising fuel oil processing taxes are crippling teapot refinery operations, further tightening MEA Triazine consumption patterns. China’s crude throughput has already fallen 1.9% year-over-year to 14.19 million b/d (708.43 million MT) in 2024, highlighting the supply crunch.

In the US, refinery run rates are on a slow recovery trajectory after falling to 87.98% in January 2025, down from 92.35% in December 2024. Meanwhile, MEA Triazine demand is being reinforced by surging natural gas consumption, particularly for H2S removal. According to EIA data, US natural gas consumption jumped 10.5% (11.0 Bcf/d) in a week, with residential and commercial demand soaring 19.2% (8.6 Bcf/d) due to extreme cold, intensifying space heating needs and lifting MEA Triazine consumption.

India remains a bright spot, with MEA Triazine demand staying resilient despite a 1.7% month-over-month decline in refinery throughput due to maintenance shutdowns. Strong petroleum product output—24.9 MMT in January 2025, up 8.3% from January 2024—along with a 5.2% rise in crude oil processing to 23.7 MMT, continues to sustain market momentum.

Overall, expectations for rising MEA Triazine prices stem from higher natural gas consumption, with the EIA raising its Q1 forecast by 2.3 Bcf/d to 108.8 Bcf/d, which is expected to support pricing. Furthermore, additional price hikes from key MEA producers are likely to push costs even higher in the upcoming weeks. This, coupled with expectations that Chinese state-run refineries will increase run rates to compensate for teapot refinery closures, is expected to drive further price increments.