Global LDPE Markets Navigate Price Volatility Amidst Supply Constraints and Rising Upstream Costs

In the last week of June 2024, the global Low-density Polyethylene (LDPE) market displayed varying trends across regions, with prices in the USA holding steady while Asian and European markets experienced an upward trajectory. This divergence was driven by firm demand from the downstream construction, packaging, and automotive sectors, coupled with supply constraints and rising freight rates. In the US, stable prices reflected moderate demand and the impact of Hurricane Beryl in the Caribbean, adding volatility to trading activities. The overall market dynamics were shaped by moderate demand, constrained supplies, and fluctuations in the cost of feedstock Ethylene and upstream Crude oil. Additionally, geopolitical tensions disrupted major supply routes, escalating shipping rates due to congestion and heightened demand. Consequently, LDPE prices surged by about 2% in Asia and 1% in Europe, highlighting the complex interplay of factors influencing the market by June 28, 2024.

The US LDPE market demonstrated stability this week, with trading activity remaining strong despite being slightly slower than earlier in the month. Both buyers and sellers were eager to transact, leading to above-average sales. The export market for LDPE remained active, facing upward pricing pressure due to rising freight rates and delayed shipments from Asia, primarily due to disruptions and increased risk in the Red Sea shipping lanes. As export prices for LDPE continued to climb, international markets such as Latin America, Asia, and Europe offered convenient outlets for incremental sales, establishing a rising price floor that supported the domestic market. Additionally, early activity in the Atlantic Ocean aligns with predictions for an unusually busy hurricane season. Nonetheless, the supply of LDPE remained sufficient to meet downstream inquiries, prompting traders to maintain stable prices.

Meanwhile, LDPE prices in Europe saw an uptick during this period as market participants closely monitored the impending settlement of the feedstock Ethylene contract price for July. Elevated costs of upstream Naphtha and Crude oil added to the price pressures on LDPE products. Further, the availability of LDPE grades remained constrained, limiting market players' ability to secure additional volumes through both contract and spot transactions. Trading activity slowed as participants exercised caution, awaiting the settlement of the June monomer contract price. European markets also grappled with higher logistics expenses and delays, exacerbated by diverted cargoes that increased the cost of imported LDPE from Asia for European converters.

This week, the Asian LDPE market experienced a price rise driven by several factors, including escalating raw material costs and robust demand. The increase in LDPE prices was primarily influenced by a surge in feedstock Ethylene prices, which rose due to higher prices of upstream Naphtha and Crude oil, intensifying cost pressures across the supply chain. Crude oil prices maintained their highest levels in nearly two months, bolstered by concerns over conflicts in the Middle East and strong demand from the United States. Additionally, global port congestion hit an 18-month peak, with approximately 60% of ships anchored in key Asian ports like Singapore, Malaysia, and China. This congestion, as reported by maritime data firm Linerlytica, contributed to heightened freight rates, further impacting LDPE prices in the region.