For the Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Low Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 1.88% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting ample supply.
• The average Low Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 1024.67/MT, according to market sources.
• Low Density Polyethylene Spot Price remained range-bound amid steady plant run rates and subdued export appetite.
• The Low Density Polyethylene Price Forecast shows modest monthly oscillations driven by seasonal packaging demand.
• Low Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend was neutral as falling ethylene costs offset stable energy expenses.
• Low Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook remains cautious given muted flexible packaging volumes and converters' just-in-time procurement.
• Elevated inventories and smooth Gulf Coast operations pressured the Low Density Polyethylene Price Index, limiting market rallies.
• Major producers operated without outages, supporting balanced supply and informing the Low Density Polyethylene Price Forecast.
Why did the price of Low Density Polyethylene change in September 2025 in North America?
• Unrestricted Gulf Coast production sustained supply, contributing to downward pressure on September prices across North American markets.
• Elevated inventories and weak export demand, particularly to Europe and Latin America, reduced spot buying urgency and volume.
• Milder ethylene feedstock cost decline softened production cost relief, while logistics frictions and tariffs restrained export liftings.
APAC
• In Japan, the Low Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 11.9% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting supply adjustments.
• The average Low Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 2378.33/MT, reporting level.
• Rising ethylene costs supported the Low Density Polyethylene Price Index, tightening margins amid domestic production.
• Low Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend increased, elevating the Spot Price and constraining seller discounting.
• Low Density Polyethylene Spot Price remained range-bound as buyers preferred minimal inventories and cautious purchasing.
• Low Density Polyethylene Price Forecast suggests modest volatility, supported by regulatory-driven packaging demand and seasonality.
• Low Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook remains steady, driven by labeling and packaging despite weaker exports.
• Inventory builds, muted export demand weighed on the Price Index, while major producers maintained operations.
• Cracker throttling and capacity pooling supported the Price Index, tightening supply against muted converter demand.
Why did the price of Low Density Polyethylene change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Lower cracker run-rates constrained ethylene feedstock, tightening Low Density Polyethylene supply and supporting price firmness.
• Rising ethylene and naphtha costs elevated production expenses, pressuring margins and influencing seller pricing decisions.
• Regulatory compliance and port disruptions altered timing, while cautious buyers limited restocking and moderated demand.
Europe
• In Germany, the Low Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 4.43% quarter-over-quarter, amid weak demand.
• The average Low Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 1142.33/MT, film-grade value.
• Low Density Polyethylene Spot Price remained range-bound, with balanced inventories and muted spot purchasing activity.
• Low Density Polyethylene Price Forecast signals upside risk as seasonal packaging restocking meets limited flexibility.
• Low Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend eased as ethylene and naphtha costs fell, reducing cost-push.
• Low Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook remains weak across construction and exports, offset by packaging demand.
• Low Density Polyethylene Price Index stability reflected port congestion and logistics balancing against intra-EU imports.
• Market participants adopted cautious buying, maintaining inventories and constraining volatility despite occasional feedstock-driven upward bids.
Why did the price of Low Density Polyethylene change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Stable domestic output and robust European imports kept supply ample, thereby preventing sustained price increases.
• Declining ethylene and naphtha costs removed cost-push pressures, limiting producers' ability to justify higher offers.
• Hamburg port congestion and rail delays disrupted flows, though land routes and inventories preserved deliveries.
MEA
• In Saudi Arabia, the Low Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 3.271% quarter-over-quarter, oversupply persisted.
• The average Low Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was USD 1104.00/MT FOB Al Jubail
• Low Density Polyethylene Spot Price eased as converters destocked, reducing spot uptake amid steady supply
• The Low Density Polyethylene Price Forecast shows limited upside with seasonal recovery and balanced inventories
• Low Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend contained as ethylene feedstock remained abundant, limiting margin pressure
• Low Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook remains moderate, supported by packaging, construction but weakened by destocking
• Volatile export enquiries and intermittent freight disruptions influenced the Low Density Polyethylene Price Index trajectory
• Steady plant operations, sufficient inventories and efficient port handling limited sustained Low Density Polyethylene rally
Why did the price of Low Density Polyethylene change in September 2025 in MEA?
• Sustained ethylene feedstock availability kept production high, preventing scarcity-driven price increases despite subdued demand influences
• Converter destocking and reduced procurement extended bearish momentum, lowering spot interest and pressuring Price Index
• Regulatory packaging mandates and seasonal slowdowns dampened demand, while logistics issues intermittently raised freight costs
South America
• In Brazil, the Low Density Polyethylene Price Index fell by 3.22% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting import stability.
• The average Low Density Polyethylene price for the quarter was approximately USD 1171.00/MT CFR Santos.
• Low Density Polyethylene Spot Price softened as import cargoes satisfied demand, keeping spot dynamics subdued.
• Low Density Polyethylene Price Forecast shows limited upside from seasonal packaging demand and freight shifts.
• Low Density Polyethylene Production Cost Trend remained muted as naphtha and ethylene prices held stable.
• Low Density Polyethylene Demand Outlook is mixed; packaging growth offset by substitution, converter purchasing restraint.
• Elevated inventories and steady import arrivals pressured the Low Density Polyethylene Price Index through September.
• Domestic plants operated normally while Santos port continuity and imports prevented shortages, maintaining market equilibrium.
Why did the price of Low Density Polyethylene change in September 2025 in South America?
• Persistent import inflows from USA and other suppliers increased availability, slightly constraining local price recovery.
• Muted downstream demand and cautious converter buying reduced offtake, amplifying inventory accumulation across distributors nationwide.
• Stable naphtha and ethylene feedstock costs limited production cost inflation, removing pressure on resin pricing.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The LDPE Price Index in North America showed a quarter-over-quarter decline by 8% in Q2 2025, reflecting bearish market sentiment amid oversupplied conditions and subdued demand across key downstream sectors.
• The LDPE Production Cost Trend remained steady, with stable feedstock ethylene prices and no major disruptions in domestic supply chains. Efficient logistics and smooth plant operations helped maintain consistent output levels.
• Domestic demand was stable but cautious, as buyers limited procurement to short-term needs. The LDPE Demand Outlook was shaped by weak construction activity, modest automotive offtake, and restrained consumer packaging demand.
• Export activity remained muted due to ongoing tariff uncertainties, with reduced shipments to China and Europe. Despite competitive freight rates and a softer U.S. dollar, global demand failed to improve significantly.
Why did the price of LDPE change in July 2025 in North America?
• The LDPE Price in July 2025 held broadly stable compared to June, reflecting balanced fundamentals. Sufficient inventory levels and steady domestic production kept the market well-supplied.
• Cautious sentiment among buyers continued to cap large-volume purchases, especially amid uncertain trade dynamics and fluctuating input costs.
• The LDPE Price Forecast remains flat for the near term, with prices expected to move within a narrow range unless export demand picks up or cost inflation re-emerges.
• The LDPE Demand Outlook remains cautious, with modest restocking activity and soft end-use consumption in the packaging and construction segments limiting any upside momentum.
APAC
• The LDPE Price in Indonesia fell by 1% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, contributing to a softening trend in the Price Index.
• Despite stable supply conditions and consistent import flows from the Middle East and Asia, demand remained subdued across key downstream sectors such as packaging, construction, and automotive.
• Import volumes increased amid lower freight rates, but weak procurement activity persisted due to cautious sentiment driven by global trade tensions and uncertainty over U.S. tariffs.
• Buyers in the region largely maintained a wait-and-watch approach, even as upstream costs stabilized, and logistics conditions improved.
Why did the price of LDPE change in July 2025 in Asia?
• The LDPE Price in Indonesia saw marginal recovery during July 2025 after earlier declines, supported by firm regional offers and tighter supply from maintenance turnarounds across Asia.
• The LDPE Production Cost Trend remained stable, with easing freight charges helping control overall costs despite geopolitical volatility.
• The LDPE Demand Outlook stayed restrained due to tepid restocking interest and buyer caution surrounding trade policy clarity and downstream order flows.
• The LDPE Price Forecast suggests a narrowly ranged trend in the near term, as balanced fundamentals and muted sentiment limit significant upside momentum.
EUROPE
• The LDPE Price in Europe remained largely stable throughout Q2 2025, with the Price Index showing no significant movement quarter-over-quarter. Despite seasonal fluctuations and shifting procurement behaviour, a balance between available supply and moderate demand supported price stability.
• The LDPE market faced persistent supply-side pressures from competitively priced imports, particularly from North America and Turkey. However, sufficient domestic production and adequate inventories helped European suppliers maintain a steady market presence.
• LDPE Demand Outlook in Germany remained subdued due to weak activity in key sectors such as construction and automotive. The packaging sector provided a steady baseline, while civil engineering showed signs of improvement, offering some demand support.
• The LDPE Production Cost Trend continued to soften in Q2 2025, largely due to declining ethylene feedstock costs. This reduced cost burden enabled producers to maintain margin stability without aggressively adjusting offer prices.
Why did the price of LDPE change in July 2025 in Europe?
• The LDPE Price in Europe remained stable in July 2025 due to a balanced supply-demand environment, with no major shifts in inventory or availability across key markets like Germany.
• The LDPE Production Cost Trend was on a downward trajectory, influenced by falling feedstock ethylene prices, but producers held prices steady amid cautious procurement activity.
• The LDPE Demand Outlook stayed subdued, especially in construction and automotive sectors, with moderate demand from packaging providing minimal support.
• The LDPE Price Forecast suggests continued stability, as market participants refrained from aggressive buying or selling amid summer holiday slowdowns and stable inventory positions.
MEA
• The LDPE Price in Saudi Arabia decreased by 3% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, contributing to a softer Price Index.
• Ample LDPE Price availability from high-capacity operations and steady production rates weighed on the market, despite stable local logistics and port operations.
• Downstream demand remained muted across packaging and construction sectors, limiting procurement activity and sustaining market oversupply.
• The LDPE Price Forecast suggests ongoing downward pressure unless regional demand picks up or export flows recover.
• The LDPE Production Cost Trend stayed low, supported by weak feedstock naphtha and ethylene values, maintaining producer margins even amid reduced spot movement.
Why did the price of LDPE change in July 2025 in MEA?
• In July 2025, the LDPE Price in Saudi Arabia remained under pressure due to persistent oversupply and lackluster end-user demand.
• The LDPE Production Cost Trend remained low, as upstream naphtha and ethylene values failed to rebound, reinforcing the soft pricing environment.
• The LDPE Demand Outlook was restrained, with packaging demand offering limited support and construction activity lagging amid economic headwinds.
• The LDPE Price Forecast expects further weakness unless export market conditions improve or regional offtake increases significantly.
South America
• The LDPE Price in Brazil decreased by 8% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2025, reflecting a consistent downward trajectory in the Price Index over the period.
• The price decline was primarily driven by subdued domestic demand, particularly from the packaging, automotive, and construction sectors, alongside cautious buying behavior and limited inventory replenishment.
• Import dynamics shifted amid tariff-related uncertainty following U.S. policy announcements, prompting Brazilian buyers to reduce exposure to U.S.-origin LDPE. Although U.S. prices remained firm, the lower import cost of LDPE and rising freight efficiencies contributed to softer domestic prices.
• Domestic producers like Braskem operated at reduced rates due to competitive pressure from imports, while speculation around potential antidumping duties on U.S. and Canadian material failed to disrupt stable inventory levels. This contributed to a generally balanced supply environment, despite regional sourcing concerns.
Why did the price of LDPE change in July 2025 in South America?
• In July 2025, the LDPE Price in Brazil remained stable, as the market achieved equilibrium between moderate demand and consistent supply from both domestic and import sources.
• The LDPE Production Cost Trend stayed under control due to declining inflationary pressure, which eased from earlier in the quarter and supported cost stability.
• The LDPE Demand Outlook remained steady, bolstered by ongoing activity in packaging and construction. However, softness in the automotive segment and cautious procurement kept overall demand muted.
• The LDPE Price Forecast indicates continued stability in the near term, barring major shifts in U.S. trade policy or unexpected supply disruptions. Suppliers are expected to maintain competitive pricing strategies while buyers remain selective and cost-conscious.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American LDPE market in Q1 2025 exhibited mixed pricing trends, with an initial rise in January and February followed by a notable decline in March. Strong demand from packaging, construction, and automotive sectors, coupled with supply disruptions caused by Winter Storm Enzo, contributed to price increases early in the quarter. Severe cold weather affected production in Texas and Louisiana, tightening supply and prompting aggressive spot buying. Rising feedstock ethylene costs further pressured market conditions, pushing prices upward.
By March, the market experienced a downturn as supply levels normalized and demand weakened. The implementation of U.S. tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports added uncertainty, leading buyers to adopt a cautious procurement approach. Despite initial optimism, economic headwinds, rising labor costs, and slowing automotive sales limited LDPE consumption. Lower feedstock ethylene prices and reduced export demand also contributed to the downward pricing trend.
LDPE Film Grade FOB Texas (USA) prices declined by 4.8% in March, marking an overall 1% decrease in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024. While early-quarter supply constraints supported price gains, excess inventory, and muted demand in March led to downward pressure. Future pricing will depend on trade policy developments and economic stability, as market participants navigate evolving supply-demand dynamics.
APAC
The APAC LDPE market in Q1 2025 showed an overall upward price trend. Early in the quarter, market sentiment remained cautious as buyers hesitated to engage with rising prices, given uncertainties surrounding global trade policies and inventory buildup concerns ahead of the Lunar New Year. Despite stable feedstock ethylene costs, limited regional supply and strong demand from packaging, construction, and automotive sectors supported price increases. Additionally, higher import offers from Middle Eastern producers contributed to the upward trend. By March, the market experienced tighter supply conditions as Middle Eastern allocations for Asia declined, leading to increased import offers. The packaging and agricultural sectors drove further demand, reinforcing the price momentum. Meanwhile, declining regional shipping costs provided some relief on logistics expenses, helping to stabilize trade flows. However, geopolitical uncertainties, ongoing US trade tensions, and fluctuations in Chinese export policies continued to influence buyer sentiment. LDPE FOB Tokyo (Japan) prices rose by 1.6% in March, with an overall 2% price increase in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024. The steady rise in prices reflects tightening supply conditions and sustained demand, but future trends will depend on trade policies, supply chain stability, and global economic conditions.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the European LDPE market experienced fluctuating conditions marked by tight supply and restrained demand. While supply-side disruptions, high U.S. polyethylene prices, and logistical delays due to severe weather in northern Europe exerted upward pressure, demand remained subdued across key sectors like construction, packaging, and automotive. Despite early quarter challenges, the construction industry showed gradual signs of recovery supported by EU Recovery Funds, slightly improving LDPE consumption, especially in energy-efficient building projects. However, cautious buying behavior persisted as inflation and economic uncertainty continued to suppress purchasing power. Market sentiment remained mixed as producers attempted to push prices upward amid constrained supply, while converters resisted significant investments, awaiting potential price corrections and clarity on U.S. tariff developments. Overall, Q1 saw modest price gains driven by supply bottlenecks, although this was counterbalanced by weak demand. The pricing trend for LDPE in Q1 2025 showed a gradual rise through the quarter with March ending with a 2.9% gain for LDPE Film Grade FD Hamburg(Germany). However, compared to Q4 2024, prices in Q1 2025 declined by 1% overall, highlighting the continued fragility of market recovery amid persistent economic and geopolitical challenges.
MEA
In Q1 2025, the LDPE market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region showed mixed performance, influenced by seasonal demand, inflationary pressure, and supply-side adjustments. The quarter began with moderate price increases in January and February, driven by steady domestic consumption in packaging and construction, as well as limited supply due to maintenance activities. Regional suppliers reported healthy demand, especially in Saudi Arabia, where strong industrial output supported market sentiment. However, by March, Ramadan-related buying slowdowns and availability of previously stocked, lower-cost material led to weakened demand and a price drop. Export demand remained moderate, with Asia and Turkey showing little improvement. Inflationary trends also influenced cost dynamics, reducing purchasing power in some segments. Despite these headwinds, the LDPE market maintained relative stability throughout the quarter. The pricing trend showed a rise in January and February, before dropping by 0.9% in March. Overall, prices increased by 2% in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024. Market participants continue to face uncertainty amid supply fluctuations, cautious demand recovery, and post-Eid restocking hesitations.
South America
In Q1 2025, the LDPE market in South America remained relatively stable compared to the previous quarter, with fluctuating monthly trends shaped by both domestic and international market forces. January and February witnessed modest price increases driven by strong demand across packaging, construction, and automotive sectors. This was further supported by supply constraints from the U.S. due to production disruptions and scheduled maintenance, which tightened regional availability. Higher feedstock ethylene costs also contributed to the upward pressure on prices. However, in March, the market turned bearish as ample inventory, softening U.S. prices, and weakened demand led to a notable decline. Concerns over a potential antidumping duty on U.S. and Canadian PE imports also spurred buyer caution, while falling global freight rates eased import costs. The pricing trend for LDPE Film Grade CFR Santos showed a sharp 3.2% drop in March. Despite the March decline, Q1 prices overall remained steady compared to Q4 2024, highlighting the pressures of inventory buildup, limited buying interest, and regulatory uncertainties shaping market behavior.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in North America faced a significant downturn, primarily due to declining demand from critical industries such as packaging, construction, and automotive. Lower feedstock Ethylene prices suggested an oversupply, further pressuring market conditions. The region also contended with logistical challenges, including disruptions from hurricanes and delays caused by a strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) at U.S. East Coast and Gulf ports, which compounded supply chain issues.
Adding to the uncertainty was the U.S. Presidential Election, which dampened investments and led to reduced inventory accumulation as businesses adopted a cautious approach. While some optimism persisted about a potential recovery in demand, spurred by expectations of lower interest rates and a more stable political climate, market conditions remained volatile. Concerns about trade flows and resin price stability grew as the incoming Trump Administration signaled potential tariff increases, further unsettling the industry.
The U.S. LDPE market recorded the steepest price adjustments, driven by subdued demand and high supply levels. By December, LDPE Film grade FOB Texas prices had declined to USD 1173/MT, highlighting the broader market slowdown and the challenges faced by the North American LDPE sector.
APAC
In Q4 2024, the Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in the APAC region exhibited a mixed trend, with initial price increases followed by a decline towards the end of the quarter. The early price rise was driven by increased buying interest and rising offers from overseas sellers for November-December shipments. However, the widening gap between purchase prices and seller offers hindered deal-making, limiting market activity. Supply chain disruptions, particularly at major Asian container ports like Shanghai, Ningbo, and Kaohsiung, further compounded the situation. Typhoon Kong-Rey caused significant congestion and delays, worsening the supply-demand imbalance, as increased freight rates added pressure. As the Chinese New Year approached, shipping capacity became constrained, and higher freight costs worsened the supply chain disruption. By December, the market saw a decline in prices, attributed to eased demand from downstream industries amid year-end destocking. Manufacturing activity showed slower growth, with reduced export orders and weaker employment levels contributing to a cautious market sentiment. Japan experienced the sharpest price adjustments, with LDPE prices in Japan falling to USD 1138/MT FOB Tokyo by the end of the quarter, reflecting the negative shift in market sentiment.
Europe
In Q4 2024, the Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in Europe faced a steady decline, driven by falling feedstock Ethylene and upstream Naphtha prices alongside weak demand from key industries such as packaging, construction, and automotive. Ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical challenges further weakened market dynamics, as buyers exercised caution, expecting further price reductions. This hesitancy, combined with ample inventory levels, exacerbated the oversupply situation as sellers sought to clear stocks. Trading activity remained muted, with lower production costs failing to stabilize the market amid declining demand. A reduction in Asia-Europe Ocean freight rates, influenced by subdued shipping activity post-peak season, dampened import demand, placing additional pressure on LDPE prices. Seasonal effects, including the year-end holiday slowdown, further curtailed consumption from downstream sectors, compounding the overall downturn. In the Eurozone, low housing activity persisted, with minimal signs of recovery in residential construction, significantly impacting LDPE demand in construction-related applications. Additionally, the UK experienced notable price fluctuations, with LDPE Film grade FD prices in Surrey quoted at USD 1183/MT by December. Market sentiment remained fragile as the quarter ended, impacted by ongoing geopolitical tensions and unseasonably mild winter weather, which lowered energy consumption and further influenced production and demand trends.
MEA
In Q4 2024, the Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region experienced a downward trend, primarily driven by weakening demand across key industries such as packaging, construction, and automotive. Limited product availability, coupled with ongoing supply constraints, contributed to market volatility, forcing traders to adjust prices downward. Geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, disrupted shipping routes, adding further pressure on logistics and trade in the region. While feedstock Ethylene prices increased, the rising costs were not sufficient to offset the declining demand from downstream sectors, leading to lower pricing levels by the end of the quarter. Saudi Arabia, a key player in the MEA LDPE market, witnessed relatively stable pricing despite the regional challenges. However, the overall market sentiment remained subdued, exacerbated by weaker export demand and competitive offers from other regions. By December, LDPE prices in Saudi Arabia were recorded at USD 1171/MT FOB Al Jubail, reflecting the cautious market outlook and the challenges posed by both supply-side and demand-side pressures. Despite these difficulties, the MEA LDPE market managed to maintain some stability, showing resilience in a challenging market environment.
South America
In Q4 2024, the Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) market in South America experienced a notable decline, driven by weakening demand across key sectors such as packaging, construction, and automotive. The influx of cheaper imported materials, particularly from North America, coupled with abundant regional supply, prompted traders to lower prices to maintain market stability. Brazil saw the most significant price reductions, as moderate demand failed to spur any recovery. The strike of approximately 60,000 Brazilian port workers on October 22 further disrupted logistics and vessel operations, exacerbating the already strained market conditions. This strike added to the challenges of a cautious market environment, where weak consumption dampened demand growth throughout November. By December, the impact of year-end destocking limited market activity, with slow recoveries in the construction and automotive sectors reducing the likelihood of a significant rebound. As a result, LDPE Film Grade CFR Santos prices in Brazil were quoted at USD 1302/MT by the end of the quarter, highlighting the ongoing struggles with supply-demand imbalances and logistical difficulties in the South American LDPE market.
