The price of Methyl Isobutyl Ketone (MIBK) declined marginally in India in the first week of April 2025, before stabilizing through the middle of the month. The reduction in price was due to weak demand in key downstream sectors, high port inventories, and reduced inventory replacement costs.

While seasonal demand usually increases during this time, demand remained flat at this point. Demand from the core end-use industries (against which MIBK is typically measured) was disappointing (i.e., bulk drugs and rubber chemicals) due to the ongoing weakness that carried on from March. There is a hope that this will get better going into the second half of April; however, this improvement has yet to materialize in the market. This has led to bearish sentiment in the market.

India's MIBK requirement of 4.12–4.27 kilotonnes per month is supplied entirely from imports. Port inventory continued to build while the replacement values eased lower, which together forced importers and traders to liquidate their stocks in early April. Buyers were hesitant to purchase any material, anticipating further price declines in the MIBK market, and thereby exerting downward pressure.

The paint and coatings industry, however, has continued to demonstrate reasonably good demand for MIBK. This steady demand allowed for only slight support in the market, and prices were relatively steady in the second and third week of April. This demand was not enough to change the overall bearish outlook.

Trends in cost for freight and upstream also dampened the buying appetite for MIBK. The current cost situation for buying is not favorable for large-volume purchases, prompting the participants in the market to be more cautious.

Quite a bit of speculation surrounds Deepak Phenolic's imminent entry into manufacturing MIBK in India. It is expected that the company will start commercial production in Q3 2025. This development could shift the current supply chain reliance on India as an importing country. This news has already made buyers cautious and not willing to commit to long-term agreements in line with the anticipated shift in supply.

In the coming months, we anticipate seeing a mixture of trends in MIBK prices in India. Alongside bearish influences including inventory overhang and low replacement costs, the paints and coatings sector is showing some stable levels of demand, which may lend some support to prices over the near term.

As per ChemAnalyst, buyers are advised to adopt a just-in-time purchasing strategy for MIBK. At this stage, buyers should not be building inventory because we expect prices to continue to soften. The market will be awaiting clearer signals of demand recovery and rebalancing of supply.