Global Sugar market remained highly volatile during February 2025, with prices prevailing divergent trend. The price of Indian Sugar experienced a significant increase, mirroring the trend followed during the previous month. However, Brazil another key producer across the globe witnessed downturn in prices owing to adequate weather conditions and healthy production activities.

Key Takeaways

• Global Sugar market remained highly volatile during February 2025.
• India: Supply concerns persist amidst reduced cane availability
• Brazil: Relief in drought in major Sugarcane producing regions has led to revived production

In the Indian market the price  experienced a modest uptick. This price surge is primarily attributed to shortage of supplies in the Indian market. Indian Sugar Industry is currently witnessing a decline in production for the ongoing Sugar production season marking a drop of 10% - 12% compared to the same season in the preceding year. This drop in  production is attributed to reduced cane availability across the country owing to inadequate weather conditions and disease outbreaks in Uttar Pradesh during the planting season and higher Sugar diverted from ethanol production. Moreover, sugar crushing rates in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, and other states have dropped by up to 10 percent. Due to this sugarcane shortage, about one-third of the country’s total sugar mills closed in February 2025. The 2024-25 Sugar crushing season has been reported to be the shortest season till now particularly in Maharashtra low Sugarcane availability.  Further, on one hand when the Sugar production within the Indian market is declining, approximately 10 Lakh tones  of the product is expected to be exported as per the government’s decision. Although owing to this price rise, there may be a need to import Sugar in the forthcoming days.

On the other hand prices in Brazil, has experienced a decline due to robust production levels and ample product availability. From the beginning of this year until mid-February, total accumulated sugar production has reached approximately 39 million tons.  However, this figure is slightly lower than the previous year’s output, it remains sufficient to meet both domestic consumption and export demands. The decline in prices can be attributed to improved supply conditions, ensuring stability in the market.

Further, Brazil has seen relief from the extreme drought caused by the El-Nino effect  that impacted sugarcane plantations in the previous year. Recent precipitation in key sugarcane-growing regions has contributed to a better crop condition, supporting steady production levels. This improved climate outlook has helped sustain the country's s supply, thereby preventing significant price surges in the domestic market.

According to ChemAnalyst, sugar prices are expected to rise in the global market in the coming days. This anticipated increase is driven by a prevailing supply shortage and growing international demand. The imbalance between constrained production and heightened consumption is likely to exert upward pressure on prices, influencing market dynamics across various regions.