For the Quarter Ending December 2025
North America
• In USA, the Sugar Price Index fell by 6.1% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting abundant domestic and global supply pressure.
• The average Sugar price for the quarter was approximately USD 811.00/MT, supported by high stocks and modest post-holiday procurement.
• Sugar Spot Price pressure persisted as inventories rose and Gulf refinery availability improved, limiting upward momentum.
• Sugar Price Forecast remains mildly negative near term amid steady imports and subdued industrial procurement patterns.
• Sugar Production Cost Trend showed moderate pressure from stable feedstock and logistics costs, insufficient to lift prices.
• Sugar Demand Outlook remained tepid as confectionery and industrial offtake softened, restraining refiners' buying urgency.
• Sugar Price Index movements reflected softer export enquiries, cautious speculative activity, and easing port congestion improving supply.
• Sugar Spot Price sensitivity to tariff quota adjustments and Mexican shipments temporarily reduced nearby physical tightness.
Why did the price of Sugar change in December 2025 in North America?
• Supplemental tariff quotas and increased Mexican shipments elevated supply, easing nearby refinery tightness and lowering prices.
• Oversupply from strong domestic production combined with abundant global output pressured refining margins and weakened market bids.
• Moderate industrial demand and cautious procurement amid ample inventories reduced buying urgency, sustaining downward price momentum.
APAC
• In Thailand, the Sugar Price Index rose by 10.03% quarter-over-quarter, driven by constrained export supply.
• The average Sugar price for the quarter was approximately USD 698.33/MT, per Bangkok FOB sources.
• Laem Chabang vessel queues tightened exports, elevating the Sugar Spot Price and constraining cargo availability.
• Short-term Sugar Price Forecast remains cautious as seasonal demand competes with anticipated near-term logistical improvements.
• Higher fertiliser and trucking expenses influenced the Sugar Production Cost Trend, compressing mill margins slightly.
• Strong regional restocking supported the Sugar Demand Outlook, sustaining export bids despite muted Chinese purchases.
• Low mill stocks and Bangkok inventories kept Sugar Price Index firm despite global surplus expectations.
• Scheduled maintenance and growers shifting toward cassava reduced cane supply, maintaining upward pressure on offers.
Why did the price of Sugar change in December 2025 in APAC?
• Drought-reduced yields and weather-delayed harvesting tightened December availability, prompting mills to prioritise exports, firming offers.
• Elevated fertiliser and transport costs raised mill expenses while port congestion delayed shipments, increasing tightness.
• Year-end restocking from Indonesia and China replenished pipelines, sustaining export demand and firming FOB offers.
Europe
• In Germany, the Sugar Price Index fell by 13.0213% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting oversupply and logistics strain.
• The average Sugar price for the quarter was approximately USD 625.67/MT, reported for free-delivered Hamburg trade.
• Elevated export offers pressured the Sugar Spot Price, prompting heavy selling from Hamburg terminals into neighbours.
• Supply growth and lower energy costs tightened margins, influencing the Sugar Production Cost Trend downward modestly.
• Soft industrial demand and cautious procurement shaped the Sugar Demand Outlook, reducing spot purchasing and contract renewals.
• Forecast scenarios reflected in the Sugar Price Forecast show mild recovery potential but constrained by abundant inventories.
• Port congestion and rail disruptions intermittently stressed flows, keeping the Sugar Price Index under downward pressure.
• Refinery utilisation remained high while stocks accumulated, supporting bearish spot offers and limiting upward price spikes.
Why did the price of Sugar change in December 2025 in Europe?
• Above-normal beet yields expanded domestic output, swelling stocks and pressuring free-delivery prices across Germany and Europe.
• Weak industrial offtake and cautious buyer behavior reduced demand, reinforcing downward price momentum for delivered sugar.
• Improved logistics versus November enabled exports but Mediterranean buying remained limited, capping arbitrage and domestic price support.
South America
• In Brazil, the Sugar Price Index fell 8.37% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting supply surplus and subdued demand.
• The average Sugar price for the quarter was approximately USD 412.33/MT, reflecting weak buying interest.
• Brazilian Sugar Spot Price weakened as heavy mill stocks pressured export differentials and narrowed margins.
• Consensus Sugar Price Forecast projected recovery next year, constrained by surplus estimates and cautious buyers.
• Sugar Production Cost Trend remained stable-to-firm with energy and logistics costs limiting mills' pricing flexibility.
• Regional Sugar Demand Outlook stayed muted as refiners delayed tenders while Asian buying partially resumed.
• Sugar Price Index tightened in December due to curtailed crush rates and Asian refinery bids.
• Export demand recovered; reduced inland inventories prompted exporters to prioritize Asian nominations, tightening spot volumes.
Why did the price of Sugar change in December 2025 in South America?
• Surging Centre-South crush rates increased exportable surplus, exerting strong downward pressure on market prices overall.
• Below-average rainfall reduced crush throughput, while Santos loading constraints and logistics delays marginally tightened shipments.
• Stronger Asian refinery buying after India export curbs improved arbitrage, supporting firmer December pricing momentum.
Quarter Ending September 2025
North America
• In the USA, the Sugar Price Index rose by 2.33% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tighter import flows.
• The average Sugar price for the quarter was approximately USD 863.67/MT, reflecting refined import trends.
• Sugar Spot Price remained pressured amid abundant inventories and subdued industrial buying across refining hubs.
• Recent Sugar Price Forecast indicates modest volatility ahead driven by weather and tariff scenario uncertainty.
• Sugar Production Cost Trend shows easing logistics and stable feedstock costs, partially offsetting price pressure.
• Sugar Demand Outlook remains muted as health trends and GLP-1 adoption constrain industrial and household consumption.
• Elevated inventories and steady export offers pressured the Sugar Price Index, constraining refiners upside this quarter.
• Domestic stocks remained elevated, reducing urgency for imports while key supplier export demand showed seasonal improvement.
Why did the price of Sugar change in September 2025 in North America?
• High domestic inventories in September 2025 depressed buying, maintaining downward pressure despite intermittent import disruptions.
• Improved logistics and lower landed costs eased production cost pressures, supporting price stabilization in September.
• Seasonal demand pickup and tariff uncertainties created brief tightening, lifting imported Sugar offers during September.
APAC
• In Thailand, the Sugar Price Index rose by 1.82% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting export interest, supply shifts.
• The average Sugar price for the quarter was approximately USD 634.67/MT, reflecting seasonal supply and demand.
• Sugar Spot Price remained pressured by abundant harvests and subdued export window, limiting seller optimism.
• Sugar Price Forecast anticipates disease risk, ethanol demand, and export restrictions affecting near-term price trajectories.
• Sugar Production Cost Trend shows upward pressure from higher cane minimum prices and labor shortages.
• Sugar Demand Outlook remains muted domestically due to tax measures, while export interest varies regionally.
• Sugar Price Index movements were supported by opportunistic buying amid disease concerns and logistical distribution adjustments.
• Inventory builds and constrained export channels reduced upward momentum, pressuring domestic offer levels and nearby spreads.
• Operational uptime among major mills remained high, sustaining supply; hedging activity and restocking influenced short-term physical market.
Why did the price of Sugar change in September 2025 in APAC?
• Ample harvest volumes increased domestic availability, creating oversupply against relatively weak regional export demand levels.
• Limited export channels, notably Chinese restrictions, constrained outlet options, exacerbating inventory accumulation and price pressure.
• Domestic consumption softened due to taxes and health policy, while ethanol production shifted cane allocation, tightening refining volumes.
Europe
• In Germany, the Sugar Price Index fell by 1.5061% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting tightening supply and cautious buyers.
• The average Sugar price for the quarter was approximately USD 719.33/MT, reflecting demand and elevated inventories.
• Elevated inventories pressured the Sugar Spot Price despite early campaign disruptions and competitive imported volumes.
• Producers revised the Sugar Price Forecast higher modestly due to acreage reductions and evolving EU import norms.
• Rising fuel and fertilizer costs influenced the Sugar Production Cost Trend, supporting marginal recovery expectations.
• Consumption shifts toward low-sugar alternatives weigh on the Sugar Demand Outlook, limiting upside for Price Index.
• Logistics constraints and inland transport delays intermittently tightened availability, briefly supporting the Sugar Spot Price upward.
• Major refiners recalibrated operations, signaling constrained seasonal throughput which influenced the Sugar Price Index trajectory.
• Export demand fluctuations and Ukrainian import competition continue to shape the Sugar Price Forecast and trade flows.
Why did the price of Sugar change in September 2025 in Europe?
• Reduced beet acreage across key EU regions tightened domestic supply expectations, easing downward price pressure.
• Elevated inventories from a prior bumper harvest combined with subdued consumption limited immediate price upside.
• Competitive Ukrainian imports and transport bottlenecks altered trade flows, impacting availability and short-term Price Index dynamics.
South America
• In Brazil, the Sugar Price Index fell by 6.44% quarter-over-quarter, reflecting ample supply and weak demand.
• The average Sugar price for the quarter was approximately USD 450.00/MT, FOB Santos basis internationally.
• Sugar Spot Price weakened as ample harvests and congestion created stock accumulation, reducing export urgency.
• Sugar Price Forecast indicates marginal recovery if export demand strengthens and inventories begin to draw.
• Sugar Production Cost Trend remained stable as weather reduced processing fuel usage, lowering manufacturing costs.
• Sugar Demand Outlook stays subdued amid economic uncertainty, industrial purchases, and competition from ethanol diversion.
• Sugar Price Index reflects bearish pressure as global surplus and HFCS use suppress price recovery.
• Major mills operated at high throughput, yet port delays and inventory gluts maintained downward price momentum.
Why did the price of Sugar change in September 2025 in South America?
• Large Brazilian and Indian harvests expanded exportable supply, increasing inventories and pressuring prices downward in September.
• Weak international demand and cautious buying amid economic uncertainty reduced offtake, preventing price recovery during September.
• Logistics delays at key ports operational disruptions increased stocks, delaying exports, marginally suppressing FOB values.
For the Quarter Ending June 2025
North America
• The Imported Sugar Spot Price in North America trended downward throughout Q2 2025, registering a sustained decline in the regional Price Index.
• Market weakness was driven by a global supply surplus, with favorable production conditions in Brazil and Mexico amplifying export volumes into the U.S.
• USDA data confirmed near-record domestic sugar inventories, as both beet and cane sugar production remained elevated while import volumes stayed stable under established tariff-rate quotas.
• Landed costs declined due to improved logistics and efficient international freight, further reinforcing buyer leverage and price pressure.
• Meanwhile, industrial demand softened, as refiners and food manufacturers delayed purchases amid stock overhang and evolving consumption patterns.
Why did the prices of Sugar change in July 2025 in USA?
• In July 2025, sugar prices in the United States continued to decline, extending the downward trend observed over the past several months. This sustained price softness is largely attributed to an oversupplied market and subdued industrial demand
• According to USDA data, U.S. sugar stocks remained at near-record levels, driven by strong domestic beet and cane sugar production as well as consistent import volumes under tariff-rate quotas. This abundance continued to weigh heavily on spot and forward prices.
• Despite existing supply agreements, import volumes remained subdued, with high-tier imports lower than historical averages. Improved logistics and lower freight costs helped reduce landed prices, amplifying price competition in the domestic market.
APAC
• The Imported Sugar Spot Price in Thailand declined across Q2 2025, reversing the temporary price spike seen in April and continuing a broader downward correction by June.
• This movement reflects a shift from early-season supply constraints to a well-supplied market by the end of the quarter, driven by expanded cane acreage and strong harvest conditions.
• Thailand’s sugar output surged due to improved rainfall and favorable growing margins, but limited export opportunities—especially restrictions from China—created an oversupply scenario.
• The region also saw subdued domestic consumption, with health-driven consumer shifts and sugar tax policies reducing overall demand.
• By June, competitive pricing from Brazil and India, logistical ease, and redirected trade flows contributed to a more buyer-friendly market environment, reinforcing the downward trend.
Why did the prices of Sugar change in July 2025 in Asia?
• In July 2025, sugar prices across key Asian markets—particularly Thailand—continued to decline, extending the bearish trend observed throughout the second quarter
• Thailand’s sugar industry maintained elevated output levels, supported by expanded cane acreage and favorable weather during the 2024/25 crushing season. Mills processed consistently high volumes of cane, and inventories remained well above seasonal averages.
• Despite strong output, Thailand’s export activity faced persistent challenges. China's continued ban on Thai sugar syrup and premix imports remained in effect, cutting off a key trade channel. Additionally, increased competition from lower-cost origins such as Brazil and India further eroded Thai sugar's price competitiveness in global markets.
Europe
• The Imported Sugar Spot Price in Europe saw mixed movements during Q2 2025, with prices declining in April and early May, followed by a modest rebound in June.
• Early-quarter softness was driven by stable supply and restrained demand, particularly in Germany, where health-conscious consumption patterns and inflation dampened retail activity.
• By June, supply-side tightening began to influence market sentiment, as producers in Germany and across the EU responded to weak margins by reducing beet cultivation areas for the upcoming crop cycle.
• Meanwhile, regulatory changes, including evolving EU import norms—particularly regarding Ukrainian sugar—and climate-linked support schemes, added to supply uncertainty.
• The quarter closed with a cautious but firming price outlook, reflecting a delicate balance between steady current supply and emerging production risks.
Why did the prices of Sugar change in July 2025 in Europe?
• In July 2025, sugar prices in Germany experienced a renewed decline, reversing the modest gains observed in late Q2.
• Despite earlier concerns over weather variability, Germany maintained stable sugar inventories heading into July. Strong beet yields from northern regions and efficient processing during the 2024/25 season ensured sufficient availability for both domestic consumption and export commitments.
• German consumers continued to reduce sugar intake amid rising health consciousness and the ongoing impact of inflation. Retail and FMCG segments saw sluggish sales of sugar-containing products, contributing to weak purchasing sentiment across the value chain.
South America
• The Imported Sugar Spot Price in Brazil declined consistently throughout Q2 2025, reflecting oversupply conditions and restrained demand across both domestic and international markets.
• Brazil’s 2025/26 sugarcane harvest progressed steadily, aided by expanded planting areas and favorable processing margins, resulting in robust sugar output despite earlier weather disruptions.
• However, international demand weakened, with sugar export volumes falling nearly 20% year-over-year in May, and competition from other major producers like India intensified.
• Domestically, consumption remained seasonally steady but lacked the momentum needed to offset the impact of growing inventories and logistical challenges.
• Amid a globally bearish market, the balance between strong production and tepid demand reinforced downward price pressure, which is expected to persist in the near term barring a major supply or energy market shift.
Why did the prices of Sugar change in July 2025 in South America?
• In July 2025, sugar prices in Brazil continued their downward trajectory, primarily due to persistent oversupply and limited demand growth
• Brazil’s 2025/26 crushing season remained in full swing, with mills operating at high capacity following expanded cane planting and improved field yields. This sustained output added to already ample inventories, reinforcing downward pressure on prices.
• Export volumes remained underwhelming. Key markets like Indonesia and China showed tepid interest amid global price competition and inventory build-ups. Brazilian exporters faced stiff pricing competition from Indian and Thai suppliers, further softening FOB values.
For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
The North American sugar market exhibited a fluctuating pricing trend throughout the first quarter of 2025, influenced by both international and domestic factors. Prices experienced notable declines during the early and final months of the quarter, with the CFR price at the Texas port closing the quarter at approximately USD 845/MT. The initial price drop was primarily driven by declining global sugar prices, particularly in Brazil—a key exporter to the U.S. market. Improved production conditions and the easing of logistical constraints in Brazil led to an increase in supply, making imports more cost-effective and contributing to downward pressure on regional prices.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 124.9 points in January 2025, marking a decrease of 2.1 points (1.6%) compared to December. This reduction was largely attributed to falling price indices for sugar, vegetable oils, and meat, which collectively outweighed gains in dairy and cereals.
In contrast, February 2025 witnessed a marginal uptick in sugar prices, supported by the introduction of new tariffs on sugar imports from Mexico and Brazil. Compounding the upward pressure, Mexico—one of the largest sugar suppliers to the U.S.—reported a significant decline in sugar production during the cane planting season, leading to constrained supply conditions across the region.
APAC
During Q1 2025, the sugar market in the APAC region, particularly India, experienced notable volatility driven by adverse weather and production challenges. In January, sugar prices surged due to a sharp decline in domestic production caused by unseasonably warm weather, the third warmest January since 1901, which disrupted sugarcane yields and led to the early closure of over 36 mills in key states. A year-on-year production drop of nearly 12% was reported, tightening supply amid strong domestic demand and logistical constraints. Although the Indian government allowed the export of 1 million metric tons, mills struggled to finalize deals due to high premium demands. Tamil Nadu, a key contributor in the south, also saw output impacted by erratic rainfall and soil moisture depletion. However, by March, prices stabilized with the Ex-work price of White Sugar at Mumbai port hovering at INR 41150/MT, as production picked up in Uttar Pradesh, aided by improved cane yields and recovery rates. Total sugar output reached approximately 247 lakh tonnes by the end of March, with inventories deemed sufficient to meet domestic needs. Meanwhile, consumption is expected to rise with the onset of summer, sustaining demand-side pressure through the coming quarter.
Europe
In Q1 2025, sugar prices in Europe experienced a consistent downward trend with the quarter ending price settling at USD 710/MT (FD Hamburg), primarily driven by supply-side pressures and shifting consumer preferences. Germany, the region’s largest producer, recorded a 17% increase in sugar production for the 2024/25 season, reaching 4.95 million metric tons due to expanded sugar beet cultivation and favorable weather. This resulted in surplus inventories that exceeded domestic storage capacities. Additionally, the partial reopening of the EU market to Ukrainian sugar imports—capped at 250,000 metric tons—further amplified market oversupply. Mild winter weather and optimal soil conditions contributed to efficient harvesting and processing, while refined sugar output grew by 13% year-on-year, reinforcing price softness. Meanwhile, demand weakened amid heightened health consciousness, with Germany reporting a 10% drop in sugar consumption as consumers increasingly embraced low-sugar alternatives. Inflationary pressures also subdued purchasing activity across the region. Compounding the issue, logistical challenges and competitive global markets hindered EU sugar exports, leaving excess supplies within the bloc. These combined factors exerted persistent downward pressure on sugar prices across Europe during the first quarter of 2025.
South America
During Q1 2025, Brazilian sugar prices experienced a notable decline with the quarter ending price settling at USD 501/MT, reversing the upward trend seen at the end of 2024, as improved supply conditions and favorable weather bolstered market stability. The country benefited from abundant rainfall across key sugarcane-growing regions such as Brasília, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro, which eased the prolonged drought caused by El Niño and enhanced crop yields. By mid-February, Brazil had produced approximately 39 million metric tons of sugar—slightly below the previous year’s output but adequate to meet domestic and export demands. March witnessed a marginal USD 4/MT price drop, driven by projections of a 6% year-over-year rise in sugar production in the Center-South region, anticipated to reach 42.4 million metric tons. Meanwhile, sugarcane crushing fell 18% year-over-year in early March, though production was expected to ramp up as more mills resumed operations. International demand remained robust, with Brazil exporting a record 31.7 million tons in 2024, led by strong purchases from Indonesia, Egypt, and the UAE. Domestically, consumption was steady but expected to rise with seasonal temperature increases.
