Global production of vegetable oils is on the rise, driven by increasing demand across various markets. The anticipated surplus in commodities like palm and soybean oil for the 2024/25 period is expected to more than compensate for a projected decline in sunflower oil production. According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global vegetable oil production for the current crop year is set to reach a record high of 224.2 million tonnes. This represents an increase of 2.7 million tonnes from the previous year. At the same time, global consumption is estimated to rise to 221.7 million tonnes, a jump of 5.3 million tonnes from the prior year. As a result, ending stocks are forecasted to be lower than last year, totaling 29.6 million tonnes, and will fall below the long-term average.

Despite the USDA's reduction from an earlier forecast of 80 million tonnes, the revised figure of 79.8 million tonnes for global vegetable oil production is still an increase of 0.8 million tonnes compared to the 2023/24 output. The ample availability of feedstock is expected to drive soybean oil production up by nearly 3.2 million tonnes, reaching a new record of 65.5 million tonnes. Rapeseed oil production is also projected to hit a record high of 34.2 million tonnes.

However, sunflower oil production is expected to see a significant decline in 2024/25, largely due to a decrease of over 1 million tonnes in Ukraine’s output. The global forecast for sunflower oil has been reduced by nearly 1 million tonnes month-on-month to 20.6 million tonnes, falling almost 2 million tonnes below the previous year’s levels. This would mark the lowest output since the 2021/22 crop year.

The Union zur Förderung von Oel- und Proteinpflanzen e. V. (UFOP) has assured that the global supply of vegetable oils for human consumption remains fundamentally secure. The UFOP highlights that rapeseed, sunflower, and soybean oils can be used interchangeably in food preparation and processed products like fat spreads. The association recalls the sunflower oil shortages experienced at the onset of Russia's war against Ukraine, which were mitigated by using rapeseed oil. The UFOP expresses concern over the numerous military conflicts currently affecting various regions, noting that these geopolitical issues are the primary cause of supply disruptions and food shortages.

The Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants e. V. (UFOP) advocates for the interests of companies, associations, and institutions engaged in the production, processing, and marketing of domestic oil and protein plants at both national and international levels. UFOP supports research aimed at optimizing agricultural production and developing new recycling opportunities in the food, non-food, and feed sectors. The organization's public relations efforts are focused on enhancing the market presence of domestic oil and protein plant products.