For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
The North American sunflower oil market in Q4 2024 demonstrated significant volatility, characterized by distinct phases of price movement. October witnessed unprecedented price escalation driven by supply-side constraints, including Black Sea region geopolitical disruptions and adverse weather conditions in major producing areas. Domestic production costs surged due to elevated agricultural inputs and reduced yields, while pre-holiday demand maintained upward price pressure.
November continued the bullish trend as U.S. production declined sharply, influenced by farmers' shift toward more lucrative crops like soybeans. The situation was exacerbated by drought conditions in European producing regions, creating a volatile pricing environment with consistently rising trends.
December marked a decisive bearish turn, triggered by increased global production volumes, particularly from Eastern European suppliers, resulting in market surplus. The strengthening USD weakened export competitiveness, while competition from alternative vegetable oils intensified downward pressure. Domestic processing margins remained stable despite lower finished product prices, supported by reduced raw material costs. These factors, combined with subdued consumer demand and heightened international competition, established a bearish market outlook by quarter's end.
Asia Pacific
China's sunflower oil market experienced significant volatility in Q4 2024, marked by a sharp price surge in October followed by a notable decline in December. The initial price increase stemmed from constrained global supply, particularly due to reduced Black Sea region harvests, with Ukraine's production falling to 5.6 million metric tons. December witnessed a 4% price reduction driven by multiple factors: increased soybean oil availability, competitive Russian supply following better-than-expected harvests, and delayed implementation of EU Deforestation Regulation maintaining steady palm and soy oil flows. The yuan's 0.77% depreciation against the USD further dampened import sentiment. Chinese buyers demonstrated strategic adaptation by utilizing existing inventories and diversifying toward cost-effective alternatives like palm and soybean oils. This shift in procurement strategy, combined with sufficient domestic stockpiles and cautious purchasing behavior, led to decreased transaction volumes throughout December. The quarter concluded with China successfully optimizing its edible oil supply chain through reduced sunflower oil dependency and enhanced portfolio diversification, effectively navigating global market uncertainties.
Europe
During the entire fourth quarter of 2024, Ukraine's sunflower oil market experienced an overall upward trend with significant price fluctuations driven by supply and demand factors. In October, sunflower oil prices rose sharply due to reduced sunflower seed harvests, worsened by adverse weather conditions like drought and storms in Eastern Europe. Ukrainian farmers also withheld stocks, anticipating higher prices, further tightening the available supply for processing. Increased international demand contributed to higher prices at Ukrainian ports. November saw continued price growth as the harvest season ended, reducing fresh supplies. Geopolitical tensions and logistical disruptions in Black Sea trade routes exacerbated export challenges, while rising energy and fertilizer costs further pressured prices. Additionally, efforts to stockpile oil for winter food security limited export volumes, intensifying the price increase. However, by December, the market shifted downward due to aggressive Russian pricing strategies, offering cheaper oil to clear inventories before a tax hike. This, coupled with subdued demand from Turkey and cautious European buyers, weakened Ukrainian prices. Operational constraints, including reduced crushing volumes and weak farmer sales, added to the bearish sentiment. While some recovery may occur post-New Year, Ukrainian sunflower oil prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
In Q3 2024, the North American Sunflower Oil market witnessed a significant surge in prices, driven by a confluence of factors shaping the pricing landscape. The quarter was characterized by heightened demand from key regions, leading to supply constraints and pushing prices upwards. Factors such as disruptions in supply chains, geopolitical tensions, and plant shutdowns further exacerbated the situation, creating a tight market with limited availability.
The USA, being a major player in the market, experienced the most notable price changes, with a substantial 7% increase from the previous quarter. This surge in prices also marked a 16% price difference between the first and second half of the quarter, reflecting the dynamic nature of the market. The quarter culminated in the latest price of USD 1053/MT for Crude Sunflower oil FOB Houston in the USA, underscoring a persistently increasing pricing trend throughout the period.
Overall, the pricing environment in Q3 2024 for Sunflower Oil in North America can be characterized as positively trending, influenced by a complex interplay of global market dynamics.
APAC
Throughout Q3 2024, the APAC Sunflower Oil market experienced a notable price surge, driven by a combination of supply constraints and robust demand dynamics. Weather-related challenges significantly impacted production capabilities, while reduced export availability from major producing regions further tightened market supplies. The strong uptake from various end-user industries, particularly the expanding biofuel sector, played a crucial role in sustaining the upward price momentum.
China emerged as the focal point of market activity, demonstrating consistent price appreciation throughout the quarter. The market registered a substantial 6% increase compared to the previous quarter, while intra-quarter dynamics showed a 4% price elevation between the first and second halves. This steady price appreciation persisted despite operational challenges in the form of plant shutdowns.
The market maintained a bullish sentiment throughout the period, culminating in Crude Sunflower Oil prices reaching USD 1050 per metric tonne CFR Shanghai by quarter-end. This robust price performance underscored the quarter's strong market fundamentals, characterized by tight supply conditions and sustained demand growth across the APAC region's various consumption sectors.
Europe
Throughout Q3 2024, the European Sunflower Oil market demonstrated robust price appreciation, driven by a complex combination of market fundamentals. Supply tightness, coupled with strong global demand patterns, created upward pressure on prices across the region. The market dynamics were particularly influenced by production constraints, which contributed to an increasingly tight supply situation.
Ukraine emerged as the epicenter of market activity, experiencing significant price volatility and recording a notable 7% increase compared to the previous quarter. The market's resilience was evident as it maintained its upward trajectory despite operational challenges, including periodic plant shutdowns. Seasonal factors further amplified the price momentum, contributing to the overall bullish market sentiment.
The persistent supply constraints and sustained demand levels resulted in Crude Sunflower Oil prices reaching USD 970/MT FOB Chornomorsk in Ukraine by quarter-end. This price performance reflected the quarter's robust market conditions, characterized by supply limitations, heightened demand, and overall positive market sentiment across the European region's Sunflower Oil sector.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
Sunflower oil pricing in North America experienced a notable surge in Q2 2024, primarily driven by a confluence of supply chain disruptions, increased downstream demand, and escalating input costs.
The market dynamics were significantly influenced by persistent supply constraints, driven by low inventory levels and heightened demand from both regional and overseas markets. Additionally, geopolitical tensions and environmental challenges compounded the supply issues, further propelling prices upwards. The ongoing war in key producing regions severely disrupted supply chains, leading to higher transportation costs and longer lead times, creating a challenging environment for importers thereby affecting the overall pricing landscape. Focusing on the USA, which witnessed the most significant price fluctuations, the overall trend reflected a robust upward trajectory. Seasonality played a crucial role, with warmer-than-average spring temperatures driving up storage costs and impacting the pricing chart, and keeping the overall product prices on the northerly direction.
Furthermore, the correlation between increasing prices of other edible oils and sunflower oil was evident, as market participants anticipated continued price hikes. The prices when compared the first quarter were substantially high, reflecting a 9% increase. Hence, the quarter concluded with a price of USD 950/MT for crude sunflower oil, marking the end of a period characterized by a strong positive pricing environment.
Asia Pacific
The second quarter of 2024 witnessed a notable surge in Sunflower Oil prices across the APAC Region. This upward trend was driven by a complex interplay of factors, creating a dynamic and robust market environment. Demand for Sunflower Oil expanded beyond traditional markets, with non-conventional consumption areas showing increased interest. This oil's cost advantages over alternative edible oils further bolstered its appeal, contributing to the price escalation. Concurrently, persistent supply chain disruptions, particularly in the Black Sea region, exerted significant influence on the market. The global increase in freight charges added another layer of complexity to the supply constraints, collectively shaping the trading atmosphere across the region. China emerged as a focal point of this trend, with its Sunflower Oil pricing environment showing particular strength. This was primarily fueled by robust demand from downstream sectors, including food processing and biodiesel production. The appreciation of the US Dollar against the Chinese Yuan further amplified import costs, exerting additional upward pressure on prices. Seasonal factors, combined with vigorous procurement activities and limited inventories, intensified the existing demand-supply imbalance. The quarter saw a remarkable 9% price increase compared to the previous quarter, with Crude Sunflower Oil closing at USD 1025/MT. This substantial price movement underscores a consistently positive pricing sentiment throughout the quarter. It paints a picture of a Sunflower Oil market in the APAC region that is not only dynamic but also operating under considerable strain, balancing strong demand against persistent supply challenges.
Europe
The European Sunflower Oil market experienced a notable upward price trend during the entire second quarter of 2024. This surge was driven by a combination of supply constraints and strong demand, creating a dynamic and bullish market environment. Several key factors contributed to this price increase. Adverse weather conditions, including excessive rainfall and frost, significantly impacted crop yields, particularly in Ukraine, a major producer. These weather-related challenges reduced the availability of sunflower seeds for processing, tightening supply. Simultaneously, geopolitical tensions, most notably the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, severely disrupted supply chains, leading to increased production costs and decreased output. The market was further influenced by global factors such as rising freight costs and restrained sales from producers who anticipated even higher future prices. Interestingly, the attractive pricing of Sunflower Oil compared to other vegetable oils like palm and soybean oils stimulated substantial import demand, especially from the Asia-Pacific region. Ukraine, as a focal point of these market dynamics, witnessed the most significant price changes. The ongoing sowing season coincided with tightened seed availability, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. This resulted in a substantial increase in procurement costs and, consequently, Sunflower Oil prices. The quarter saw a 9% price increase compared to the first, reflecting the persistent supply-demand imbalances and heightened market sentiment. By the end of Q2, the price for Crude Sunflower Oil in Ukraine reached USD 945/MT. Overall, the Q2 2024 pricing environment for Sunflower Oil in Europe was decidedly positive, characterized by significant price increases and a bullish market outlook. This trend was driven by a confluence of adverse supply-side factors, sustained high demand, and additional disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions and logistical challenges.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the Sunflower Oil market in North America experienced a significant decline in prices with mixed trajectory. The price rose considerably in January while plummet suddenly in February and rebounded steadily as march concludes the quarter.
Starting with January, the the notable rise in Sunflower Oil prices in January 2024 stems from increased downstream demand, driven by efforts to replenish inventories amid growing advocacy for biofuels sectors. Furthermore, in response to increased demand, market participants raised prices to boost profitability thereby selling the goods relatively at a higher cost than projected. Also, Geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions complicated market sentiment, causing export challenges and increased shipping costs. In February, prices sharply declined due to weaker trade quotations from neighbouring markets and a shift towards competitively priced products from other countries, especially in the European market. Furthermore, the FAO Food Price Index averaged 117.3 points in February, down 0.7 percent from January and 10.5 percent from the same month last year. The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index decreased by 1.3 percent from January, standing 11 percent below its February 2023 value. International Sunflower oil prices notably dropped due to expectations of ample global export supplies.
Lastly, with march ending the quarter, prices rebounded modestly, driven by rising costs of other vegetable oils globally. However, merchants grappled with surplus Sunflower oil supply, sufficient to meet demand downstream. With this strategic price adjustments to maximize profits amidst a strong US dollar, concerns linger about potential price increases due to Mississippi River bottlenecks caused by weather conditions. Addressing potential delays and associated costs is crucial to avoiding trade disruptions and export delivery halts. As a result, market participants in the US have escalated inquiries to exporting nations, further amplifying the upward pressure on prices. In conclusion, The latest quarter-ending price for Crude Sunflower Oil FOB Houston in the USA was USD 840/MT.
Asia Pacific
The pricing environment for Sunflower Oil in the APAC region during Q1 2024 has experienced a downward trend, with prices declining by more than 1 percent compared to the previous quarter of the last year. However, there has been a slight increase in prices towards the end of the quarter. Initially until the middle of the Q1 the price demonstrated an overall downward trend. The decline stemmed from various factors, including reduced demand for vegetable oil, particularly in major markets like China, and an oversupply of Sunflower Oil. China's significant imports of competing oils from Ukraine and Russia, coupled with lower exporting costs from these regions, also played a significant role. Ukrainian and Russian suppliers deliberately lowered prices, enabling Chinese market players to adjust their pricing strategies to stay competitive within the market. Furthermore, the Red Sea trade dispute has disrupted supply chains, causing delayed deliveries and port congestion, which affected Sunflower Oil (SFO) prices. Chinese buyers hesitated to procure SFO from affected regions due to higher freight costs despite lower trading prices.
Additionally, the strengthening US dollar made import opportunities more expensive for Chinese buyers, contributing to price fluctuations and a downturn in the market trajectory. However, as quarter progressed towards the end of the quarter, the sunflower oil market has displayed steady rise in its prices. This was supported by the prices rise in revival oils including the soybean and palm oil. Furthermore, with reduced freight costs and increased downstream consumption of Sunflower oil, traders in the region actively recoverd previous losses by selling off their inventories at higher prices, aided by the devaluation of the Yuan against the dollar. Overall, the pricing environment for Sunflower Oil in the APAC region during Q1 2024 has been challenging, marked by a downward trend influenced by weak demand, oversupply, currency fluctuations, and logistical challenges. Consequently, the quarter-ending price for Crude Sunflower Oil CFR Shanghai in China at the end of March was recorded at USD 893/MT.
Europe
The Sunflower Oil market in Europe experienced a challenging first quarter of 2024, with prices declining significantly. Several factors contributed to this downward trend. The global market conditions, including the decreasing prices of other edible oils such as palm and soybean oil, played a crucial role in the decline of Sunflower Oil prices. These oils serve as substitutes for Russian sunflower Oil, and their abundant availability put competitive pressure on Sunflower oil prices. Additionally, Reduced demand from key importers like India, China, and Turkey, alongside decreased biofuel consumption and weakened purchasing sentiment, led to a negative pricing environment for Sunflower Oil. Similarly in Ukraine, the largest producer in Europe, prices steadily declined from the previous quarter. Producers across the Black Sea region faced considerable pressure as prices for processed products sharply declined until February. This decline was attributed to light demand from major destinations, particularly in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. In response to these market dynamics, sellers have been compelled to adjust prices accordingly in order to be competitive within the market as prices from neighbouring nations such as Russia also declined.
However, as March commenced, Ukrainian Sunflower oil exports surged due to a modest regional consumption rebound and heightened interest from importers seeking cost-effective alternatives amid rising palm oil prices. Additionally, Egypt's notable increase in Sunflower oil imports signals a potential shift in global vegetable oil consumption patterns, boosting demand and potentially impacting prices. The increased exports of oil to Egypt from Ukraine and Russia stand to benefit their respective economies as Euro devaluated against the dollar by 0.57 percent thereby benefitting the Ukraine and Russian trades to clear their stocks at max. profits. Overall,
In Q1 2024, Sunflower Oil prices in Russia and Ukraine saw a negative trend, declining consistently due to global market factors and weakened demand. Crude Sunflower Oil prices ended the quarter at USD 813/MT FOB Chornomorsk in Ukraine and USD 800/MT FOB Novorossiysk in Russia, reflecting the persistent downward trend.
