Aluminium ingot prices surged across major global markets in late January 2025. German prices climbed sharply as factories ramped up orders amid tight supplies. American markets followed suit, driven by trade tensions and strong domestic demand. In China, prices edged up as manufacturers-built inventory ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday. Supply chain problems and energy costs kept pressure on European markets, while trade policy concerns rattled U.S. buyers.

Germany witnessed a 3.5% increase in aluminium ingot prices, driven by robust industrial demand and supply chain disruptions. The European market is experiencing heightened volatility due to energy price fluctuations and constrained aluminium production.

The aluminium ingot supply crunch in the region has prompted manufacturers to secure additional stocks, further inflating prices. The ongoing energy crisis and import dependence are expected to sustain upward pressure on prices in the near term, potentially impacting downstream industries reliant on aluminium ingot as a key input.

The aluminium ingot market in China experienced a 1% price increase during the week ending January 24. Inventory dynamics remained in focus as pre-Lunar New Year stocking led to a notable buildup. Aluminium billet inventory surpassed the 200,000-ton mark due to reduced downstream activity and the onset of the holiday season.

Despite this inventory rise, overall aluminium ingot inventory levels remain historically low, marking a turning point midweek. Analysts expect post-holiday demand recovery to stabilize prices further, with destocking likely resuming once manufacturing activities normalize.

In the U.S., aluminium ingot prices surged by 3.6%, reflecting a mix of global trade turbulence and rising domestic demand. Industry reports highlight potential shifts in metal flows caused by trade policies and tariffs, contributing to price volatility. Alcoa, a major U.S. producer, reported higher shipment forecasts for 2025 despite ongoing challenges, including geopolitical uncertainties and increasing production costs.

The US aluminium ingot market faced speculation this week about new tariffs on imports from the EU, Canada, China, and Mexico. Industry leaders raised concerns about limited metal availability and rising costs. They also warned of disruptions to the low-carbon aluminium supply chain. Alcoa highlighted the risk of a supply-demand imbalance in low-carbon aluminium. The company imports this metal from its facilities in Norway, Spain, and Iceland. Tariffs could raise premiums and add USD 1.5 to USD 2 billion in extra costs for end-user products. This comes at a time when domestic demand continues to grow.

ChemAnalyst anticipate that the global aluminium ingot market will face further instability throughout the year, driven by supply chain disruptions and fluctuating energy costs, with U.S. prices likely to remain elevated in the short term.