For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 for Aluminium Ingot pricing in North America has been characterized by a notable increase in market prices. This uptrend can be attributed to several significant factors shaping the market dynamics. Tightening global supply constraints, driven by reduced inventory levels and a weakened dollar, have played a pivotal role in boosting prices. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding global economic conditions, particularly the impact of geopolitical tensions, have further supported the upward trajectory of Aluminium Ingot prices in the region.
In the USA, which has witnessed the most significant price changes, the market has experienced fluctuations influenced by various factors. Seasonal trends, such as increased construction and manufacturing activities during the summer months, have contributed to the overall positive sentiment in pricing. The 10% increase from the same quarter last year underscores the market's resilience and growth. Despite a slight decline of -1% from the previous quarter in 2024, the overall price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter reflects a 2% increase, indicating a strengthening market sentiment.
As the quarter came to a close, Aluminium Ingot prices in the USA settled at USD 4482/MT CFR Alabama Port, marking a significant uptick and highlighting the prevailing positive pricing environment in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe region witnessed a notable increase in Aluminium Ingot prices, driven by a confluence of key factors shaping the market dynamics. Global supply constraints, exacerbated by disruptions such as the collapse of a water storage pond at Vedanta's alumina refinery in India, have tightened the supply of aluminum, leading to upward price pressure. Additionally, the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cut announcement and market anticipation of further cuts have bolstered prices. The evolving geopolitical landscape, self-imposed restrictions on Russian imports, and policy changes have further complicated the market environment, contributing to the pricing trend. Germany, experiencing the most significant price changes in the region, saw a price increase of 2% in the second half of the quarter compared to the first half. This increase aligns with the overall positive trend observed throughout Q3. The quarter-ending price of USD 3494/MT FD-Bad Berleburg reflects a stable and increasing pricing environment in Germany, indicative of a positive market sentiment prevailing in the region.
Asia-Pacific
During the third quarter of 2024, the Aluminium Ingot market in the Asia-Pacific region saw a notable uptrend in pricing, particularly in China, where the most significant fluctuations occurred. This trend was propelled by a confluence of factors including a robust demand surge from the construction and manufacturing sectors, logistical challenges within the supply chain, and broader economic influences such as interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve. Market dynamics also contended with hurdles like inventory management difficulties, rising costs of raw material alumina, energy usage restrictions in production zones, and inconsistent demand in downstream markets. Despite these pressures, the quarter did experience a marginal -1% dip in prices from the preceding quarter, hinting at underlying market volatility. Yet, within this quarter, a 2% price hike from the first to the second half indicated a phase of market correction and equilibrium. The closing price for high-purity Aluminium Ingot (99.9%) in Shanghai was USD 2776/MT, reflecting a persistent upward momentum in market sentiment over the period.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Aluminium Ingot market experienced a pronounced upward trajectory, driven by a confluence of critical factors. Supply-side constraints, including raw material shortages and logistical disruptions, played a pivotal role in bolstering prices. Additionally, robust demand from key industrial sectors such as automotive, construction, and energy transition applications further intensified market dynamics. Environmental regulations and sustainability mandates have also elevated production costs, contributing to the pricing surge. The market's bullish sentiment was underpinned by heightened investor interest and strategic stockpiling amid geopolitical uncertainties, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
Focusing on the USA, the Aluminium Ingot market epitomized this quarter’s bullish trend, marked by a significant price escalation. Seasonality influenced price patterns, with demand peaking due to summer-driven consumption and industrial activity ramp-up. The USA market observed an 11% year-on-year increase in prices, reflecting strong economic resilience and industrial recovery. Quarter-on-quarter, prices rose underscoring an accelerating demand curve and persistent supply challenges.
A comparative analysis within the quarter revealed a price increment between the first and second halves, indicating sustained upward momentum. The pricing environment remained robust, driven by persistent supply constraints, heightened industrial demand, and strategic market behaviours, thereby affirming a stable-to-positive outlook for Aluminium Ingot pricing in North America.
Asia-Pacific
In Q2 2024, the Aluminium Ingot market in the APAC region witnessed a noticeable uptrend in pricing, driven by a confluence of factors. A significant driver was the robust demand from key sectors such as automotive, construction, and infrastructure, wherein aluminium's lightweight and durable properties play a crucial role. Additionally, global supply chain disruptions, including geopolitical tensions and environmental regulations, constrained supply, further exacerbating the price elevation. Increased production costs, owing to rising energy prices and raw material expenses, also contributed to the upward momentum. Investment in new technologies and green initiatives aimed at reducing carbon footprints added to the operational costs, underpinning the higher pricing landscape. Focusing on China, which experienced the most pronounced price changes, the overall trend was bullish. Seasonal dynamics, such as heightened construction activities in the summer months, amplified demand, contributing to price hikes. The correlation between increased demand and reduced inventory levels was evident, reinforcing the upward trajectory. The price for Aluminium Ingot in China rose by 2% from the same quarter last year and marked a 3% increase from the previous quarter of 2024. This positive sentiment underscores the market's resilience amidst fluctuating global economic conditions and highlights the enduring strength of demand-supply dynamics in the APAC region's aluminium sector.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has been characterized by a consistent upward trend in Aluminium Ingot prices in the Europe region, driven by a confluence of factors. A significant impetus for this rise has been the geopolitical tensions impacting energy costs and supply chains. As European energy prices soared, aluminium smelters faced increased production costs, catalysing higher market prices. The imposition of stringent environmental regulations also contributed to supply constraints, particularly in bauxite mining and alumina production, exacerbating the price surge. Furthermore, the ongoing sanctions on Russian aluminium have disrupted global supply chains, compelling European markets to seek alternative, often costlier, sources. Focusing on Germany, the country witnessed the most pronounced price changes. This robust growth reflects the heightened demand from downstream industries, notably the automotive and construction sectors, which saw a moderate recovery. Seasonal factors also played a role, with manufacturing activities typically ramping up in the spring, further bolstering demand. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter shows a 3% increment, indicating a steady upward trajectory throughout the period. Concluding the quarter, the price for Aluminium Ingot signifying a stable yet positive pricing environment. This consistent increase underscores the resilience of the German market amid broader European supply challenges, reflecting sustained demand and strategic market adjustments.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
The North American region experienced an overall increasing trend in Aluminium Ingot prices during the first quarter of 2024. This upward movement can be attributed to several significant factors that influenced the market prices. The region witnessed a surge in demand from various industries, such as construction and automotive, as economic conditions improved. Additionally, the growing focus on clean and renewable energy sources, including the electric vehicle sector, drove up the demand for Aluminium Ingot.
In the USA, which saw the maximum price changes, the price of Aluminium Ingot increased compared to the previous quarter in 2024. This upward trend can be attributed to the improving economic conditions and the gradual decrease in the impact of persistent inflation in the market. Furthermore, the correlation between the first and second half of the quarter showed a positive price change, indicating a sustained upward trajectory.
On March 25, Century Aluminium announced it would get up to $500 million from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations as part of the Industrial Demonstrations Program (IDP). Century's Green Aluminium Smelter Project will receive Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act funding, which is designed to demonstrate commercial-scale decarbonisation solutions to move energy-intensive industries towards net zero. Century Aluminium plans to utilise the amount for building the first new US primary aluminium smelter in 45 years, aiming at doubling the size of the current US primary aluminium industry and strengthening domestic economies and its position in the global market. The smelter will also foster domestic supply chains of a critical material like aluminium, which is much needed for the green energy transition, including electric vehicles, renewable energy production and storage, building and construction, and sustainable packaging.
Asia-Pacific
The first quarter of 2024 has been challenging for the Aluminium Ingot market in the APAC region, with prices experiencing a significant decrease. Several factors have influenced the market, leading to this negative trend. Demand from downstream industries, particularly in the automotive and construction sectors, has been subdued, resulting in lower consumption rates. Additionally, disruptions in the supply chain, such as the explosion at the fuel depot in Guinea, a major producer of Bauxite, have caused concerns about potential shortages of raw materials for alumina production. This has led to an increase in the price of feedstock and subsequently impacted the price of Aluminium Ingot. China has seen the maximum price changes in the region. The market has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in prices compared to the same quarter last year. The price change from the previous quarter in 2024 was recorded at -1.8%. Overall, the pricing environment for Aluminium Ingot in the APAC region during Q1 2024 has been negative, with prices experiencing a consistent decrease. Factors such as subdued demand and disruptions in the supply chain have contributed to this trend.
Europe
The first quarter of 2024 has been characterized by increasing prices for Aluminium Ingot in the Europe region. Several significant factors have influenced market prices during this period. Firstly, there has been a decline in the supply rate of Aluminium Ingot, particularly from a global feedstock supplier. This raised concerns about a potential shortage of raw materials needed to produce Aluminium Ingot. Additionally, there has been a surge in demand from downstream industries, particularly in the construction sector. This increased demand has put upward pressure on prices. In Germany, the price changes for Aluminium Ingot have been the most pronounced. Overall, there has been a positive trend in prices, with an increase of 1.4% compared to the previous quarter. When compared to the same quarter last year, prices have decreased by 1%. However, there has been a slight decline in prices in the second half of the quarter. In summary, the first quarter of 2024 has seen increasing prices for Aluminium Ingot in the Europe region, driven by factors such as a decline in supply and increased demand from downstream industries. In Germany, prices have shown a positive trend overall, with a slight decline in the second half of the quarter.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
Aluminium Ingot pricing in North America for Q4 of 2023 showed a declining trend amidst several factors. Firstly, In the initial period of October, Aluminum Alloy ingot prices in the USA experienced a decline influenced by global macroeconomic factors, including inflationary pressures and construction setbacks in China. Lower selling and increased stocks in domestic warehouses further contributed to the downturn. The anticipated Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) failed to boost demand as expected. A UAW strike in the automotive sector shifted demand downward, impacting the economic landscape across the USA.
In early November, prices rose as production shifted south, reducing inventory levels. However, hesitation to place orders arose due to expectations of a potential federal interest rate increase. Recycling partially offsets consumption, and international collaboration on can-capture equipment occurred. The underwhelming impact of the IRA limited demand, while concerns about raw material shortages in Guinea contributed to an upward price trajectory.
December saw another decline in prices due to global macroeconomic factors, persistent high inflation, and an expected Federal Reserve interest rate hike. Despite firm orders from domestic downstream industries amid a historically downturned market, overall uncertainty persisted in the USA's Aluminum Ingot market. The latest price of Aluminium Ingot (99.9%) DEL Alabama Port (USA) for Q4 of 2023 was USD 4201/MT.
Asia-Pacific
The APAC region witnessed a stable market for Aluminium Ingot pricing in the last quarter of 2023 (Q4). In the Chinese market, Aluminum Ingot prices remained stable in the starting weeks of October, attributed to weakened demand from the automotive and construction sectors, influenced by a strong US dollar. Supply-side challenges, including disruptions from floods in the north and reduced feedstock supply from Guinea due to a fuel depot explosion, led to price uncertainty. Despite the lowest statistics in five years, post-holiday inventory faces pressure due to sluggish downstream industries and market rumors. The domestic Aluminum extrusion sector sees subdued demand, prompting Chinese manufacturers to maintain a downward pricing trend. In November, a stable pricing trend persisted domestically, driven by decreased demand, prompting mills to consider production reductions. China's announcement of approximately USD 14 billion in local government bonds aimed at stimulating the economy, somehow supported the market trend. While certain Aluminum billet factories scaled back production, ingot casting volume increased month-to-month. Expectations of reduced production by Aluminum smelters in Yunnan suggest continued high domestic supply, with ongoing uncertainty in economic conditions contributing to stable demand and prices. Supply chain disruptions, including the Red Sea incident, raised freight charges, collectively contributing to an upswing in prices for Aluminum Alloy Ingots. The latest price for Aluminium Ingot (99.9%) Ex Shanghai in China for the last quarter was USD 2653/MT, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.6% compared to the previous quarter.
Europe
The last quarter of 2023 (Q4) for Aluminium Ingot in Europe witnessed a bearish market with high supply and low demand. In October, the German Aluminum Ingot market saw a slight decline due to reduced demand in the automotive and construction sectors, attributed to persisting challenges faced by German automobile manufacturers, including high inflation and fierce competition from Chinese and American companies. Excess inventory accumulated as manufacturers struggled to reach pre-2019 demand levels. Solar energy infrastructure improvements, initially scheduled for October, were postponed, further impacting Aluminum Ingot demand. In mid-Q4, November, prices persisted stability as demand shifted southward from the automotive industry. Norsk Hydro expressed concerns about growing competition from the Chinese electric vehicle industry affecting downstream manufacturing in Germany. Winter and Christmas holidays led to further price declines, particularly in construction activity. The European spot market witnessed a 7.5% year-on-year increase in aluminum output, contributing to rising domestic inventory levels. Amidst market uncertainty and potential federal interest rate hikes, steady buyer orders have maintained stability in the German Aluminum Alloy Ingot market. In December, prices declined again due to ongoing challenges in the automotive and construction sectors, excess inventory, and postponed solar energy infrastructure improvements. Despite these challenges, domestic downstream industries continued to place firm orders amid historical price fluctuations. The latest price of Aluminium Ingot (99.9%) FD-Bad Berleburg in Germany for Q4 is USD 3070/MT.
