For the Quarter Ending March 2025
North America
Across North America, aluminium ingot markets strengthened throughout Q1 2025, underpinned by record global production and tightening raw-material supplies. Falling warehouse stocks in early Q1 supported initial gains, while robust automotive sales and flat construction spending provided mixed but generally positive demand signals. However, elevated alumina costs stemming from late-2024 supply disruptions continued to pressure output, even as overall production hit historic highs.
Supply-side dynamics included capacity stability amid declining inventory levels and evolving tariff discussions on imports from Canada and Mexico, which, alongside rising premiums, have fueled market apprehension. Downstream demand remained solid, driven by strong automotive uptake and pockets of recovery in construction activity. Policy uncertainty around tariffs and logistical challenges continued to underpin a bullish outlook as Q2 approaches.
In the USA, continuous price increases were observed from the start to the mid-quarter and into the end of Q1. When compared to Q4 2024, quarterly QoQ price increased 2.5% in Q1 2025, concluding the quarter at USD 4505/mt CFR Alabama Port.
Europe
In Q1 2025, the European aluminium ingot market navigated a mix of supply-side pressures and moderate demand recovery. The continent remained exposed to regulatory shifts and geopolitical tensions, particularly due to the proposed European Union ban on Russian aluminium imports, which added uncertainty to sourcing strategies across the region. Meanwhile, steady domestic production and favorable logistics conditions provided some stability amid broader market volatility. Focusing on Germany, aluminium ingot prices exhibited an upward trend at the start of the quarter, supported by tightening supply, heightened industrial demand, and a resilient auto sector. Mid-quarter, prices rose further as inventories declined and the market responded to trade tension escalations and reduced global bauxite shipments. However, by the end of the quarter, prices saw a marginal decline as sentiment cooled slightly despite firm demand from the solar and EV sectors. When compared to Q4 2024, the quarter-on-quarter price increased by 0.7%, with aluminium ingot prices closing at USD 3574/mt FD-Bad Berleburg, reflecting a largely bullish yet cautious market sentiment.
APAC
Aluminium ingot markets across the Asia-Pacific region recorded a marginal increase in Q1 2025 amid balanced supply-demand dynamics and rising input costs. Markets benefited from steady manufacturing activity in major economies, minimal weather disruptions, and stable raw material availability. Uncertainties over China’s export tax refund policies and potential U.S. tariff measures also supported upward pressure. When compared to Q4 2024, QoQ price increased 5.5% in Q1 2025, ending at USD 3225/mt Ex-Tokyo. In Japan, supply remained stable at the start of the quarter and saw a slight increase by mid-quarter, driven by robust demand from the automotive and die-casting sectors. Raw material costs, particularly for alumina, remained steady, easing earlier supply-constraint worries. Export growth in vehicles and semiconductor equipment reinforced domestic demand. Ongoing negotiations between producers and consumers over premium adjustments, influenced by U.S. tariff fears and rising production costs, introduced some uncertainty even as supply chains functioned smoothly. Overall, marginal price gains throughout the quarter reflect cautious optimism, supported by efficient logistics and sustained industrial recovery.
For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Aluminium Ingot prices in North America increased by 4% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a tight balance between supply and demand. Across the continent, market dynamics were shaped by robust demand, particularly in construction and automotive sectors, amid moderate supply. Strategic shifts towards recycling and sustainable production supported supply-side resilience, while geopolitical and trade factors added complexity to global supply chains.
In the USA, the Aluminium Ingot market witnessed a bullish trend, with prices rising steadily through the quarter. Early in the quarter, domestic recycling efforts and policy-driven import constraints bolstered supply stability, even as rising freight costs and trade concerns influenced market sentiment. Vehicle sales surged 9% month over month in December, offsetting earlier slowdowns in production. The construction sector also contributed to demand, with year-over-year spending up 3.0%, despite challenges like higher borrowing costs and logistical constraints. Global supply disruptions in the alumina markets added upward pressure, further supporting price growth.
Overall, the U.S. Aluminium Ingot market ended the quarter on a strong note, with cautious optimism for sustained demand in early 2025. By the end of the quarter, Aluminium Ingot (99.9%) DEL Alabama prices stood at USD 4,628/MT, driven by increased automotive sales and steady construction activity.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2024, aluminum ingot prices in Europe rose by 4.3% quarter-on-quarter, driven by supply constraints, rising operational costs, and global market pressures. The sharp decline in London Metal Exchange aluminum inventories and reduced Chinese export incentives significantly contributed to the price surge, creating a bullish market environment. Escalating energy prices and higher input costs further intensified upward price momentum across the continent. In Germany, aluminum ingot prices showed steady growth, with the quarter ending at USD 3608/MT FOB Hamburg. Supply dynamics remained stable due to consistent international bauxite shipments, despite disruptions like the Moselle River accident, which increased freight costs. German manufacturers adapted by optimizing energy usage and securing alternative logistics, mitigating broader supply chain challenges. Demand presented a mixed outlook. While the automotive sector saw a slight recovery, with increased car exports and rising new registrations, the electric vehicle segment and construction industry faced headwinds. Declining EV sales and reduced construction activity, impacted by economic difficulties and high energy costs, weighed on demand. Nonetheless, improved manufacturing output and global supply chain developments bolstered confidence toward the end of the quarter. Germany’s aluminum market, although pressured, displayed resilience and adaptability, setting the stage for potential stability in 2025.
APAC
In the fourth quarter of 2024, Aluminium Ingot prices in the APAC region increased by 3% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting strong market fundamentals and sustained demand across key sectors. This upward trend was supported by robust downstream consumption and steady production levels, despite some supply chain challenges and rising raw material costs. In China, Aluminium Ingot prices showed fluctuations throughout the quarter, ending at USD 2730/MT Ex Shanghai. Early in the quarter, prices faced downward pressure due to oversupply and the impact of a strong US dollar. However, demand rebounded significantly mid-quarter, driven by the seasonal peak in consumption during the festive period, increased automotive sales, and active construction projects. Notable growth in passenger car production and the effectiveness of vehicle replacement policies further bolstered demand. On the supply side, improved hydropower availability in Yunnan and resumed operations in Sichuan and Guizhou supported stable production, although bauxite and alumina supply constraints added cost pressures. Toward the end of the quarter, there was a slight moderation in demand and improved inventories eased price growth. Despite these challenges, the Chinese Aluminium Ingot market remained resilient, underpinned by favorable government policies and strong performance in automotive and real estate sectors.
For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The third quarter of 2024 for Aluminium Ingot pricing in North America has been characterized by a notable increase in market prices. This uptrend can be attributed to several significant factors shaping the market dynamics. Tightening global supply constraints, driven by reduced inventory levels and a weakened dollar, have played a pivotal role in boosting prices. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding global economic conditions, particularly the impact of geopolitical tensions, have further supported the upward trajectory of Aluminium Ingot prices in the region.
In the USA, which has witnessed the most significant price changes, the market has experienced fluctuations influenced by various factors. Seasonal trends, such as increased construction and manufacturing activities during the summer months, have contributed to the overall positive sentiment in pricing. The 10% increase from the same quarter last year underscores the market's resilience and growth. Despite a slight decline of -1% from the previous quarter in 2024, the overall price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter reflects a 2% increase, indicating a strengthening market sentiment.
As the quarter came to a close, Aluminium Ingot prices in the USA settled at USD 4482/MT CFR Alabama Port, marking a significant uptick and highlighting the prevailing positive pricing environment in the region.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Europe region witnessed a notable increase in Aluminium Ingot prices, driven by a confluence of key factors shaping the market dynamics. Global supply constraints, exacerbated by disruptions such as the collapse of a water storage pond at Vedanta's alumina refinery in India, have tightened the supply of aluminum, leading to upward price pressure. Additionally, the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cut announcement and market anticipation of further cuts have bolstered prices. The evolving geopolitical landscape, self-imposed restrictions on Russian imports, and policy changes have further complicated the market environment, contributing to the pricing trend. Germany, experiencing the most significant price changes in the region, saw a price increase of 2% in the second half of the quarter compared to the first half. This increase aligns with the overall positive trend observed throughout Q3. The quarter-ending price of USD 3494/MT FD-Bad Berleburg reflects a stable and increasing pricing environment in Germany, indicative of a positive market sentiment prevailing in the region.
Asia-Pacific
During the third quarter of 2024, the Aluminium Ingot market in the Asia-Pacific region saw a notable uptrend in pricing, particularly in China, where the most significant fluctuations occurred. This trend was propelled by a confluence of factors including a robust demand surge from the construction and manufacturing sectors, logistical challenges within the supply chain, and broader economic influences such as interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve. Market dynamics also contended with hurdles like inventory management difficulties, rising costs of raw material alumina, energy usage restrictions in production zones, and inconsistent demand in downstream markets. Despite these pressures, the quarter did experience a marginal -1% dip in prices from the preceding quarter, hinting at underlying market volatility. Yet, within this quarter, a 2% price hike from the first to the second half indicated a phase of market correction and equilibrium. The closing price for high-purity Aluminium Ingot (99.9%) in Shanghai was USD 2776/MT, reflecting a persistent upward momentum in market sentiment over the period.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Aluminium Ingot market experienced a pronounced upward trajectory, driven by a confluence of critical factors. Supply-side constraints, including raw material shortages and logistical disruptions, played a pivotal role in bolstering prices. Additionally, robust demand from key industrial sectors such as automotive, construction, and energy transition applications further intensified market dynamics. Environmental regulations and sustainability mandates have also elevated production costs, contributing to the pricing surge. The market's bullish sentiment was underpinned by heightened investor interest and strategic stockpiling amid geopolitical uncertainties, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.
Focusing on the USA, the Aluminium Ingot market epitomized this quarter’s bullish trend, marked by a significant price escalation. Seasonality influenced price patterns, with demand peaking due to summer-driven consumption and industrial activity ramp-up. The USA market observed an 11% year-on-year increase in prices, reflecting strong economic resilience and industrial recovery. Quarter-on-quarter, prices rose underscoring an accelerating demand curve and persistent supply challenges.
A comparative analysis within the quarter revealed a price increment between the first and second halves, indicating sustained upward momentum. The pricing environment remained robust, driven by persistent supply constraints, heightened industrial demand, and strategic market behaviours, thereby affirming a stable-to-positive outlook for Aluminium Ingot pricing in North America.
Asia-Pacific
In Q2 2024, the Aluminium Ingot market in the APAC region witnessed a noticeable uptrend in pricing, driven by a confluence of factors. A significant driver was the robust demand from key sectors such as automotive, construction, and infrastructure, wherein aluminium's lightweight and durable properties play a crucial role. Additionally, global supply chain disruptions, including geopolitical tensions and environmental regulations, constrained supply, further exacerbating the price elevation. Increased production costs, owing to rising energy prices and raw material expenses, also contributed to the upward momentum. Investment in new technologies and green initiatives aimed at reducing carbon footprints added to the operational costs, underpinning the higher pricing landscape. Focusing on China, which experienced the most pronounced price changes, the overall trend was bullish. Seasonal dynamics, such as heightened construction activities in the summer months, amplified demand, contributing to price hikes. The correlation between increased demand and reduced inventory levels was evident, reinforcing the upward trajectory. The price for Aluminium Ingot in China rose by 2% from the same quarter last year and marked a 3% increase from the previous quarter of 2024. This positive sentiment underscores the market's resilience amidst fluctuating global economic conditions and highlights the enduring strength of demand-supply dynamics in the APAC region's aluminium sector.
Europe
The second quarter of 2024 has been characterized by a consistent upward trend in Aluminium Ingot prices in the Europe region, driven by a confluence of factors. A significant impetus for this rise has been the geopolitical tensions impacting energy costs and supply chains. As European energy prices soared, aluminium smelters faced increased production costs, catalysing higher market prices. The imposition of stringent environmental regulations also contributed to supply constraints, particularly in bauxite mining and alumina production, exacerbating the price surge. Furthermore, the ongoing sanctions on Russian aluminium have disrupted global supply chains, compelling European markets to seek alternative, often costlier, sources. Focusing on Germany, the country witnessed the most pronounced price changes. This robust growth reflects the heightened demand from downstream industries, notably the automotive and construction sectors, which saw a moderate recovery. Seasonal factors also played a role, with manufacturing activities typically ramping up in the spring, further bolstering demand. The price comparison between the first and second half of the quarter shows a 3% increment, indicating a steady upward trajectory throughout the period. Concluding the quarter, the price for Aluminium Ingot signifying a stable yet positive pricing environment. This consistent increase underscores the resilience of the German market amid broader European supply challenges, reflecting sustained demand and strategic market adjustments.
