In January 2025, germanium prices in China rose slightly amid Lunar New Year disruptions, driven by ongoing supply constraints and stabilizing demand from downstream manufacturers. While exports to Russia remained steady amid Western restrictions, Beijing tightened controls on critical minerals. Meanwhile, Germany mirrored China’s price trends, with semiconductor demand rebounding.

Germanium prices in China edged up by 0.5%, reflecting a modest recovery despite fewer trading days during the Lunar New Year holidays. Market participants noted that tight supply conditions, evident since last year, continued to impact pricing as limited germanium ore output constrained production efforts across the region.

Downstream enterprises are beginning to show signs of stabilization with inventory levels bottoming out. Manufacturers of lenses and optical components have demonstrated a strong willingness to replenish stocks, suggesting confidence in sustained demand. This renewed interest by end-users may bolster the market despite ongoing challenges in the upstream supply chain.

On the international front, exports to Russia remain intact even as the United States and the EU have imposed export restrictions on gallium, germanium, and antimony. Chinese state-linked companies are capitalizing on this situation by continuing to supply Russia with critical strategic minerals essential for military technologies, thereby mitigating the impact of Western sanctions.

In a further twist, Beijing has intensified its export controls on a range of critical minerals. The latest measures, announced on February 4, 2025, target tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium, following earlier bans on gallium and germanium. Additionally, export restrictions on key semiconductor elements to the USA and the addition of 28 U.S. defense companies to China’s Export Control List highlight the escalating trade tensions amid shifting global dynamics.

In Germany, Germanium prices have mirrored trends observed in China amid low supply resulting from Lunar New Year festivities. The reduced availability has triggered a modest price increase while semiconductor demand steadily rebounds. Market participants attribute the shift to supply chain disruptions and rising industrial needs, underscoring evolving market dynamics in the high-tech sector.

Simultaneously, the European Commission has invested €3m in a consortium developing the first-ever quantum chip that combines electronics with light using advanced Germanium-Silicon technology. This innovative breakthrough could significantly lessen the EU’s reliance on imported chips, fostering regional technological autonomy and enhancing competitiveness in the global semiconductor arena.

ChemAnalyst forecasts that germanium prices will remain favorable in the long term, driven by consumption growth in key downstream sectors, especially infrared applications and telecommunications fiber optics.