The first week of August has been a critical time for Germanium the as the export curbing by the Chinese government deeply impacted the supply chain for the US downstream industries, majorly semiconductor and defense-based sectors. The declaration of supply curtailment resulted in weak market sentiment in July ending and incited the mills to sell at a relatively lower price to prevent the accumulation of stocks in local Chinese inventories. Meanwhile, the market lacked supply from August 1st, damping Germanium inventory levels in the US spot market. Considering the current market dynamics, the prices have stabilized, as the US government has been in contact with alternate Germanium suppliers from Canada and Finland, as new reserves have been discovered for Germanium in these regions.

The global Germanium market got startled by China's assertion of deduction in Germanium export, as they are the global leader in production. At the start of the 3rd quarter, the announcement created an uncertain situation in the global market, resulting in the plunging price of Germanium at the start of the second quarter. These measures were taken as a counter in consideration of the previous banning of Chinese products by the US and Euro-Zone nations. The Chinese mills were then provoked to sell their Germanium stock at a relatively lower offer price to prevent an oversupply in the domestic warehouses since the H2 of July 2023. The US spot market faced tough competition as the oversupply from the Chinese manufacturers, along with plummeting Germanium prices, provoked US-based suppliers to cut prices to compete in the global market.

The US market lacked supply in the first week of August as the import curtailment from Chinese suppliers increased Germanium prices. The semiconductor and defense industry was the major downstream industry affected by the supply disruption. The consistent surging demand for electronic chips from the electrical vehicle sector promoted the market northwardly. Meanwhile, Wolfspeed, Inc., the global leader in silicon carbide technology, announced that the proposed curtailment of Germanium wouldn't impact its supply chain for the downstream semiconductor industry. In addition to that, the US government is now looking forward to partnering with alternate Germanium suppliers such as Canada. Cantex Mine Development Corporation has been in an advantageous phase as they have identified a rich Germanium reserve at the sulfide project in the North Rackla region, Canada. Furthermore, the Germanium mining projects such as the Nosib Project in Namibia under the Golden Deeps company, Teck's Red Dog Mine in Alaska, and the recent discovery of a reserve in the Lost Sheep Fluorspar Project in the Spor Mountain area, Utah, have now been introduced as the substitute for the Germanium suppliers in the US spot market.

According to ChemAnalyst, the future price of Germanium is expected to rise as the demand from the downstream defense and semiconductor industries will be maintained on a higher edge. The surging development in the electrical vehicle sector and rising sales will keep the Germanium prices high in the US spot market. Additionally, the decline in supply from Chinese mills will provoke the local US suppliers to hike their prices to benefit from the current situation.