During the initial half of May 2024, the global Ammonium Nitrate market exhibited varying patterns. Prices in the Asian market remained steady, attributed to consistent to slightly subdued demand. Conversely, the German market witnessed a decrease in prices. This decline was predominantly fuelled by diminished expenses associated with crucial raw materials, notably ammonia. Fluctuations in ammonia prices have notably reduced production costs, consequently applying downward pressure on market prices. Moreover, the general price decrease has been additionally influenced by decreased demand from significant downstream fertilizer markets and reduced planting activities.

In the first half of May 2024, the German Ammonium Nitrate market experienced a significant decline. This reduction was primarily attributed to decreasing prices of key feedstock ammonia and reduced demand, largely caused by unfavourable weather conditions. Additionally, concerns raised by Bulgarian farmers regarding EU regulations and the increasing costs of fertilizers and energy underscore broader issues about the economic viability of agricultural operations. Addressing these challenges is essential to ensure the long-term sustainability of the agricultural sector.

Additionally, the European market saw an oversupply of Ammonium Nitrate, with import activities largely unaffected despite ongoing uncertainties in global trade dynamics. Insights from various market sources indicate a slightly accelerated decline in euro area manufacturing business conditions. This drop in Ammonium Nitrate prices is highlighted by a sharper reduction in new orders, marking the most significant downturn observed this year. These developments underscore the complexities facing the manufacturing sector and demand close attention from industry stakeholders and policymakers. The interplay of these factors has narrowed the gap between demand and supply, exerting downward pressure on Ammonium Nitrate prices.

On the contrary, Ammonium Nitrate prices remained constant in the Asian market. The influence of ammonia costs on Ammonium Nitrate prices was alleviated by prevailing cost pressures. Significantly, there has been a dearth of new orders or bids from both domestic and international markets due to the Chinese government's suspension of exports until the peak planting season of 2024. While NPK producers were anticipated to maintain their procurement for high-nitrogen fertilizers for summer corn application, demand fell below expectations, thereby exerting downward pressure on Ammonium Nitrate demand.

Simultaneously, an ample supply of Ammonium Nitrate inventories has been observed this week, resulting from the government's suspension of export licenses for various fertilizers, including Ammonium Nitrate. Market insights indicate a lack of updates on China's Ammonium Nitrate export restriction policy. Given the strong domestic prices, export inspection approvals may be delayed until June-July 2024, and the validity of export certificates is expected to be shortened to 30 days from the previous 60 days. As a result, there have been no export sales recorded, leading to an excess of availability in the market.