Pharmaceutical industry experts are expecting a sustained increase in import costs of Progesterone API throughout the North American region in March 2025. The trend of increasing prices is likely to affect manufacturers, healthcare providers, and even consumers in the future.

As per the experts, several factors are converging to drive this price increase for progesterone API. Primary API manufacturers in China and India, which supply approximately 70% of North America's Progesterone API, continue to witness a production constraint due to higher regional and overseas quotations and reduced labour ahead of earlier lunar break which considerably impacted the overall supply side in the month of February 2025. These supply-side pressures are occurring simultaneously with increased global demand including that of Progesterone API.

In addition, regulatory filings suggest that some of the leading drug makers have already sent notifications to their stakeholders on potential cost revisions. Industry watchers add that smaller drug makers with fewer bargaining powers may struggle more in absorbing these rising input costs.

Cumulatively added to this, fueled by government policies in the offing and currency volatility. The recent implementation of increased tariffs on imports of drugs to spur local production and curb dependency on foreign suppliers by the U.S. government account for a steady increase in the prices of importing progesterone API throughout the U.S. market. Increased tariffs raise the price of importing progesterone API, and it becomes more costly for drug companies to obtain the ingredient from foreign suppliers. The policy change will not only increase the cost of importing immediately but also cause long-term price inflation as producers adapt to increased costs.

U.S. companies will continue to rely on imports, albeit at a greater cost, because domestic supply of progesterone API is still insufficient to meet the growing demand.  These expenses will then be passed on to customers by importers and distributors, resulting in additional progesterone API price hikes.  Additionally, pharmaceutical businesses will stock API in advance because to supply chain disruption and market volatility brought on by the tariff policy, which will constrain supply for progesterone AP and accelerate price hikes.  As a result, starting in March 2025, the market for progesterone API will also see a steady increase in import prices.

The market will be influenced concurrently by shifts in exchange rates, particularly those between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan.  Imports from China will become more expensive due to a declining dollar, which will encourage price increases even further.  There will remain instability as supply networks adjust and progesterone demand keeps rising.

As manufacturers and distributors must contend with rising prices and potential regulatory changes, industry analysts forecast turmoil.  Businesses will closely monitor tariffs and currency movements throughout the month in an effort to find ways to offset costs while maintaining a steady supply of progesterone API.