For the Quarter Ending December 2024
North America
In Q4 2024, the North American Progesterone API market saw significant price deterioration due to reduced production costs in major manufacturing hubs and weak demand, which dampened trading sentiment. U.S. buyers delayed purchases, anticipating further price declines, while high domestic inventory levels led suppliers to adopt aggressive pricing strategies. The favorable USD/CNY exchange rate made Chinese imports more cost-effective, putting additional downward pressure on domestic prices.
The market was further impacted by an influx of competitively priced Chinese exports, supported by favorable production economics and currency valuations. On the demand side, procurement patterns showed a focus on inventory optimization as buyers worked through stockpiles from prior high-volume purchases.
By December, the market remained bearish, with subdued procurement activity and weak demand across key downstream sectors. Intense price competition from Chinese imports continued to compress domestic supplier margins, maintaining downward pressure on the market. Trading volumes remained low, with participants taking a cautious approach due to uncertainty about market recovery, resulting in a pessimistic outlook for the Progesterone API sector.
Asia Pacific
The APAC Progesterone market, particularly from China, showed an overall declining pattern in Q4 2024, October saw price corrections amid weak demand and excess inventory. The demand imbalance prompted manufacturers to reduce prices. Manufacturers continued to focus adjusted their production and inventory levels in response to reduced procurement from key importing nations. The approach to year-end holidays and high existing stockpiles contributed to lower export volumes. Furthermore, reduced global purchases intensified the downward pressure. Western markets adopted a cautious, need-based purchasing strategy. Despite stable input costs and improved production efficiencies enabling competitive pricing, the market remained weak. The increasing popularity of alternative API further impacted Progesterone's market position. Throughout the quarter, manufacturers demonstrated adaptability by adjusting production schedules and managing inventory levels strategically, maintaining supply chain stability despite ongoing price adjustments and evolving market dynamics.
Europe
The German Progesterone market experienced sustained downward pressure during Q4 2024. October initiated the quarter with declining prices, influenced by lackluster demand from end-users and minimal buying activity. Market conditions were further complicated by the euro's depreciation against the dollar, which elevated import expenses, while competitive pricing from Asian suppliers shaped market behavior. The market deterioration persisted through November, driven by lower production costs in Asian markets and tepid economic activity across the Eurozone. As a significant import center, Germany's pricing patterns aligned with global trends, while traders adopted conservative positions and closely tracked economic metrics. The year's final month brought heightened challenges due to market oversaturation and diminished purchasing interest. Seasonal inventory accumulation created supply imbalances, while logistical constraints emerged from weather disruptions, reduced staffing, and congestion at major ports like Rotterdam and Hamburg, escalating transport costs. As a result, the overall quarter concluded with restricted purchasing patterns, as sustained currency weakness and high stock levels continued to impact market dynamics. These elements, coupled with seasonal disruptions, led to reduced import activity and sustained price weakness.
