European Aniline Prices Stagnate in May 2024 Amid Moderate Demand-Supply Dynamics

The Aniline price trend has maintained stagnancy throughout May 2024 as quotations remained unchanged from suppliers amid the moderate demand-supply dynamics. The demand for Aniline was firm in the Pharma sector as the US and European pharmaceutical markets saw growth rates of 19% during Q1 2024. Meanwhile, the market experienced intermediate availability of Aniline stocks, caused by the moderate operating rates at manufacturing facilities and steady offtakes from the market.

The Aniline manufacturing rates were intermediate amid the moderate availability of feedstock Benzene supplies during the month. Initially, the feedstock Benzene supplies were firmly available attributed to the increased upstream Crude Oil supplies in the international market stemming from decreased consumption for heating purposes in downstream applications. However, Crude Oil stockpiles fell in the US market in the second of the month. It impacted the feedstock Benzene production rates and its supplies in the market. Meanwhile, the inventories of Aniline key feedstock Nitric Acid were amply available during the month because of reduced demand for fertilizer producers amid moderate offtakes of fertilizers during the crop planting season in the region due to the ongoing farmer protest in the European region. Furthermore, in May 2024, the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose marginally and indicated a slight deacceleration in the rate of deterioration in manufacturing business conditions.

At the same time, the orders for Aniline were firm from the Pharma sector. The pharmaceutical industry performed well during Q1 2024. In the first quarter, Roche recorded total revenue of 14.399 billion Swiss francs (equivalent to around 15.7 billion US dollars), showing a 2% rise compared to the previous year when adjusted for constant exchange rates. Within this, revenue from the pharmaceutical business was 10.921 billion Swiss francs (approximately 11.9 billion US dollars), up by 2% year-on-year (at constant exchange rates). At the same time, Novartis disclosed a year-over-year net sales growth of 11%, reaching a total of 11.829 billion USD.

According to the ChemAnlayst data sources, the Aniline FD Antwerp prices witnessed USD 1380/MT at the end of the week concluded on 24th May 2024.

As per the estimation, Aniline prices in the European market are expected to decrease by the end of the second quarter of 2024 because of the anticipated reductions in Aniline consumption from Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate (MDI) manufacturers who utilize it as a component in polyurethane for insulation in various applications such as buildings, appliances, and refrigeration systems. Recent geopolitical tensions have led to a decline in the purchasing power of European citizens, resulting in more cautious consumer spending and manufacturing units exercising prudence in the procurement of input materials. Additionally, production costs for Aniline are anticipated to decrease towards the end of Q2 2024 due to an expected decline in Benzene prices.