The ethanol market across the Americas had contrary trends in early April 2025. Brazil's ethanol market, though supported by historic production of corn, was facing mounting price stress considering declining overseas demand and higher stocks. Meanwhile, the United States market had conflicting trends due to fluctuating production, increasing exports, and shifting domestic consumption.

Brazil's ethanol prices declined during the first half of April because of a mix of strong domestic production and average export performance. Despite a smaller-than-anticipated sugarcane crush caused by severe drought and wildfires, overall ethanol output rose, more or less because of an extremely large increase in corn-based ethanol output. Additional feedstock was diverted into ethanol by the mills in lieu of lower sugar returns, especially as the quality of the cane declined.

Although local demand was good, particularly for hydrous ethanol, overseas sales lost steam, and this narrowed the price gap between home and foreign markets. This gap lowered prices, particularly for anhydrous ethanol. Reduced sugar exports had minimal impact on the supply of ethanol, while steady internal buying was not sufficient to absorb the excess of production, yet again exerting downward pressure on prices.

The comparison was given by the U.S. ethanol market, which offered a dual-faced scene. Output declined moderately early in April, as week-by-week averages fell below near-term and year-earlier levels. But exports jumped sharply, reflecting mounting global demand for U.S. ethanol and helping offset regional softness. Rates of inventory climbed gradually, consistent with temporary overhang against waning domestic usage.

Ethanol blending activity declined, particularly in the large markets like the Midwest and Gulf Coast, due to poorer demand from fuel blenders and refiners. Despite this, wholesale prices progressed at the start of the month due to strong export demand and a better balance in the coastal market. The Energy Information Administration kept its short-term forecast for flat production through 2025, but reduced its blending demand estimates for 2026, a harbinger of longer-term uncertainty in U.S. consumption.

Brazil's ethanol market will keep on showing price weakness in the near term with ample supply piling up over weak export demand and maintaining elevated stocks. The U.S. scenario appears to be more in balance, as strong export growth acts as a cushion against curtailed production and blending. In general, the first half of April demonstrated how weather disruption, shifts in feedstock preferences, and new global trade flows are reconfiguring ethanol market dynamics on both sides.