Early July Scenario: HDPE Prices Rise in the West Amidst Supply Issues, China Experiences a Fall

This week, the High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) market exhibited varied trends globally as the prices increased in the US and Europe, while they remained stable in most Asian markets, with China experiencing a decline. In the US, rising HDPE prices were attributed to strong domestic trading activity, compounded by the impact of Hurricane Beryl. Both European and Asian markets faced supply challenges amid moderate to low demand from downstream sectors like construction, packaging, and automotive. Further, feedstock Ethylene prices decreased in Europe and Asia but surged in the US. Consequently, HDPE prices in the US rose by 2% for Injection Molding grade FOB Texas, and in Germany, the HDPE Injection FD Hamburg price increased by 1%. In contrast, while major Asian markets remained stable, China's HDPE Injection Molding grade EXW Jiangsu saw a 2% drop by July 12, 2024.

The US HDPE market continued its upward trajectory this week, buoyed by strong downstream demand and robust trading activities. The HDPE market saw a significant volume of resin transactions as processors and resellers procured additional material in response to Hurricane Beryl, which made an unexpected landfall in the Houston area. The storm, which brought severe winds and a foot of rain, led to widespread flooding and logistics disruptions, complicating recovery efforts. Major PE producers such as Ineos, Formosa, LyondellBasell, Baystar, and Dow preemptively shut down operations or implemented weather-related plans to mitigate the impact. Despite the disruptions in resin production, which led to a reduced need for Ethylene monomers, the feedstock's prices remained resilient and increased. This dynamic has contributed to the rising HDPE prices in the US, reflecting the ongoing strain and adjustments within the market.

Meanwhile, in Europe, the rise in HDPE prices is primarily attributed to supply constraints driven by reduced import volumes and curtailed domestic production. The market sentiment remains bearish amid a sluggish summer season, with limited expectations for demand recovery. Converters are responding by extending facility outages; some have shut down earlier than planned, while others are expected to remain offline longer than scheduled. Additionally, the ongoing Red Sea crisis has exacerbated supply chain challenges, causing vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope. This redirection has led to congestion at alternative routes and transshipment hubs crucial for trade with Far East Asia, West Central Asia, and Europe, as noted by Maersk. The cascading effects of these disruptions are significantly impacting global supply chains, further compounding the supply issues in the European HDPE market.