Declining Price Trend for Monel in The European Market Amidst Plunging Market Fundamentals in Dec 2023

In December 2023, the price of Monel decreased by about 1% in the European spot market as the consumption rate from the downstream housing, chemical, and machinery sectors dampened. The market sentiment across the European spot market gets bearish as the harsh winter weather resulted in a lowering of manufacturing and construction activity throughout the major European nations such as Germany, Italy, etc. Meanwhile, the supply of feedstock of Monel Such as Nickel, continues to be on a rising trend, leading to a weaker cost support. Additionally, the demand from the downstream automotive industry has also plunged amidst the European government’s policy change.

During the end of the last quarter of 2023, the supply of feedstock Nickel showed a lingering uplifting trend as the major Stainless Steel, Monel, and Battery related industries across the globe placed new deals and signed joint ventures to support the mining activity across the major mining sites. During a predominantly unremarkable year for metals trading such as for Monel and several others, nickel stood out as the poorest performer and may not experience relief soon. The annual decline in the metal utilized in stainless steel, Monel, and electric vehicle batteries amounted to 45%, resulting in an oversupply of Nickel in warehouses across the globe. The Major Battery, Stainless Steel, and Monel-based industries are spending money on the expansion of mining activity, even when the demand remains low. In the realm of investments, Agnico Eagle, a Canadian mining company, has committed USD 11 billion to acquire 12% of Canada Nickel Company. This substantial increase in supply has resulted in a significant downturn in the market for Monel across Europe.

On the other hand, the Monel Feedstock industry got hit as on December 24, a blast occurred at a nickel smelting facility owned by a Chinese company located on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi. The incident resulted in several casualties, along with numerous individuals sustaining injuries. The accident in the Indonesian mill has emphasized the undisclosed expenses associated with Jakarta's ambitious pursuit of battery metal processing to expedite industrial development—a key initiative of the departing leader, Joko Widodo. This is supposed to hamper Nickel mining and could uplift its price, providing strong support for Monel Manufacturing Industries.

Furthermore, there was a decrease in the demand for Monel from the downstream automotive industries in the latter part of the last quarter of 2023. While electric vehicle (EV) sales had shown a consistent upward trend throughout the year, they experienced a decline starting in November due to the expiration of government incentives. Monel had a better market earlier as the automotive customers rushed to purchase electric cars towards the end of the previous year to capitalize on the incentives before their discontinuation, resulting in a substantial drop in demand thereafter. The uncertainty surrounding the possibility of new subsidy programs posed a threat to Germany's goal of having 15 million electric vehicles on its roads by 2030, making it even more challenging to achieve. This decline in EV demand contributed to the reduced consumption of Monel in the European market.

According to ChemAnalyst, the price of Monel is anticipated to show a slightly rising trend in the first quarter of 2024 amidst sufficient feedstock Nickel supply and upcoming downstream demands. The government is planning to impose a new policy to raise the sale of Electric vehicles in the upcoming year.