For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The Monel market in North America during Q3 2024 experienced a significant decline in prices, with the USA witnessing the most substantial price changes. This downward trend can be attributed to various factors such as excess supply, weak demand from key industries like construction and manufacturing, and fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly nickel and copper.
The demand for Monel in the U.S. market is under pressure from various sectors experiencing a slowdown. With declines in manufacturing output and new orders, particularly in industries that heavily rely on Monel, there is a general sentiment of caution among buyers. The anticipated resurgence in demand is thwarted by ongoing political uncertainty and wavering consumer confidence.
The market faced challenges due to sluggish economic growth, reduced automotive sales, and uncertainties in global trade dynamics. Additionally, disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal impacted export rates, further adding to pricing pressures. Throughout the quarter, prices showed a consistent decreasing sentiment, with a notable decline of 8% from the previous quarter and a decline of 5% between the first and second half of Q3. The quarter concluded with Monel prices at USD 42360/MT for Alloy 400 Sheet DEL Florida in the USA, reflecting the overall negative pricing environment in the region.
Asia-Pacific
In the third quarter of 2024, the APAC region witnessed a notable decline in Monel pricing, driven by several key factors. Fluctuations in raw material costs, particularly copper and nickel, played a significant role in influencing market prices. The market experienced challenges due to rising imports, excess supply, and weakened demand across various industries. Additionally, global economic uncertainties, sluggish industrial activities, and reduced export opportunities further contributed to the downward trend in Monel prices.
Within Japan, the market saw the most significant price changes, with a 7% decrease from the previous quarter. The quarter-ending price for Alloy 400 Sheet Ex Osaka in Japan stood at USD 40601/MT. The market exhibited a negative sentiment throughout the quarter, with a stable to bearish outlook. Overall trends indicated a seasonally slow recovery, impacted by lower demand from the automotive sector and disruptions in the economy. Despite some fluctuations, the pricing environment remained predominantly negative, reflecting the challenging market conditions for Monel in Q3 2024.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Monel pricing landscape in Europe witnessed a significant downturn, with Germany experiencing the most pronounced price changes. The overall market was influenced by a multitude of factors contributing to the decreasing prices. The persistent decline in demand from key sectors such as aerospace, construction, and automotive industries played a pivotal role in driving prices downward.
Global economic uncertainties further exacerbated the situation, leading customers to postpone large purchases, thus impacting the demand-supply dynamics of Monel. Political uncertainty further exacerbates this fragile demand environment, making manufacturers cautious in their strategies. Although there is a slight improvement in business confidence linked to potential opportunities from upcoming elections, demand remains subdued. Manufacturers are focusing on stabilizing operations amid these challenges, adjusting inventory levels and purchasing activities to adapt to the changing market conditions.
Moreover, disruptions in the supply chain, highlighted by port congestion and reduced shipping capacities, added pressure on prices. In Germany specifically, the quarter saw a 10% decrease from the previous quarter, with a notable 3% decline in prices between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter concluded with the price of Alloy 400 Ex Werdohl standing at USD 37902/MT, indicating a challenging pricing environment marked by consistent decreases.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Monel pricing landscape in the MEA region experienced a notable decline, with the United Arab Emirates showcasing the most significant price changes. Several factors contributed to this downward trend. In general, the market was influenced by a combination of ample supply levels, subdued demand dynamics, and ongoing price fluctuations in raw materials such as nickel. These elements collectively exerted downward pressure on Monel prices, creating a challenging environment for market participants.
Specifically focusing on the United Arab Emirates, the Monel market witnessed a continuous decrease in prices throughout the quarter. The overall trend in pricing exhibited a negative sentiment, with prices experiencing a downward trajectory. Comparing Q3 2024 to the same quarter last year, prices recorded a substantial decrease, emphasizing the challenging conditions faced by the market. Furthermore, the quarter saw a notable decline of 7% from the previous quarter, highlighting the persistent downward pressure on prices. As the quarter ended, the latest price for Alloy 400 Sheet CFR Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates stood at USD 40628/MT, underscoring the prevailing downward trend in Monel pricing for the region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Monel market experienced a notable decline in prices, driven predominantly by substantial shifts in both supply and demand dynamics. This quarter, Monel pricing faced significant downward pressure due to elevated inventory levels and fluctuating raw material costs, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and operational disruptions in key raw material-producing regions. Shipping costs surged because of extended transit times and increased spot rates for sea freight, adding to the overall market volatility. Despite steady production levels, the market struggled with an oversupply, leading to a bearish market sentiment.
Focusing on the USA, the region saw the most pronounced price changes. A combination of rising inventory levels, lower-than-expected demand from key industrial sectors, and persistent supply chain bottlenecks were key factors influencing the pricing landscape. Seasonal trends and changing consumer preferences in the automotive industry added to the situation, leading to a continuous decrease in Monel prices. The general price trend showed a consistent decline, with a decrease from the previous quarter and an additional drop in the second half of the quarter.
The latest quarter-ending price stood at USD 46080/MT of Alloy 400 Sheet DEL Florida, underscoring a negative pricing environment throughout Q2 2024. Disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal were notable, further affecting market stability. This quarter's market conditions were overwhelmingly negative, reflecting the ongoing challenges in balancing supply and demand in the Monel sector.
Asia-Pacific
In Q2 2024, the Monel market in the APAC region experienced a declining trend, influenced predominantly by global supply chain disruptions and fluctuating demand dynamics. The quarter saw several critical factors impacting Monel prices, including geopolitical tensions, changes in nickel mining operations, and volatile shipping costs. Decreased nickel production in key regions and the suspension of operations at notable plants like Eramet SA in New Caledonia contributed significantly to the constrained supply, exacerbating the pricing environment.
Focusing on Japan, which observed the most significant price changes, the Monel market has been notably bearish. The overall trend has been characterized by a steady decline in prices, driven by elevated inventory levels and subdued demand, particularly within the automotive sector. Seasonal factors further amplified the downturn, with a pronounced dip in market activity correlating strongly with the end of fiscal year adjustments. Compared to the same quarter last year, the market has weakened considerably, underscoring the ongoing economic challenges.
As the quarter concluded, the price of Alloy 400 Sheet Ex Osaka in Japan settled at USD 44409/MT, reflecting a persistently negative pricing environment. The decrease underscores the broader market struggles and diminishing momentum in the region's Monel market. Overall, Q2 2024 has been marked by a negative pricing sentiment, highlighting the critical need for strategic responses to stabilize the market.
Europe
In Q2 2024, Monel pricing in Europe experienced a notable downturn, primarily influenced by a confluence of factors. The quarter was marked by subdued demand across various industries, compounded by ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. The construction sector, a significant driver of Monel consumption, showed a marked decline in activity and new orders due to high costs and economic uncertainty. The automotive industry also saw a downturn in new registrations, further dampening demand for Monel. These industry-specific challenges were exacerbated by rising inventory levels and a surplus of refined nickel, leading to an overall bearish market sentiment.
Germany experienced the most significant price changes within the Europe region. The market exhibited a clear downward trend, influenced by the interplay of seasonality and structural issues within key consuming sectors. The connection between decreased construction activity and challenges in the automotive industry was apparent, leading to a continuous decrease in Monel prices. Prices dropped compared to the previous quarter, with a more significant decline seen between the first and second half of the quarter, highlighting the unfavourable pricing environment.
Despite some industry stabilization efforts, the overall sentiment remained negative. The quarter concluded with Monel Alloy 400 priced at USD 40172/MT Ex Werdohl in Germany, reflecting the cumulative impact of these adverse factors. The market's trajectory highlighted the ongoing challenges and underscored a need for strategic adjustments to navigate the persistent downward pressures.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Monel market in the MEA region exhibited a notable decline in prices, influenced predominantly by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. The quarter was marked by significant factors such as sanctions on Russian raw materials, soaring nickel prices due to shortages from key nickel-producing regions including Brazil and New Caledonia, and increased shipping expenses post the Red Sea crisis. These elements compounded to create a challenging environment for Monel manufacturers, further exacerbated by operational issues in nickel production facilities across the South Pacific.
Focusing on the United Arab Emirates, which experienced the most significant price fluctuations, the Monel market saw a pronounced downward trend. Seasonal demand shifts and resource management challenges, driven by rapid tender processes in the construction sector, added to the market's volatility. When comparing with the previous quarter, where prices decreased, the pricing environment in the second quarter displayed a persistent negative outlook. The first half of Q2 experienced a reduction in prices compared to the latter half, indicating a continuous decline.
The quarter concluded with the price of Alloy 400 Sheet CFR Jebel Ali at USD 43753/MT, highlighting a pervasive bearish market sentiment. Despite this, the UAE's market maintained an optimistic outlook for future infrastructure projects, albeit under pressure from rising input costs and logistical challenges. No specific plant shutdowns were recorded during this quarter, reinforcing the complexity of market dynamics influenced more by external factors than internal production halts. Overall, the Q2 pricing environment for Monel was decidedly negative, driven by geopolitical and logistical perturbations.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the Monel pricing dynamics in the North America region saw a nuanced examination beyond the conventional top influences. Overall, the market situation in the USA played a significant role in the pricing trends, with fluctuations being most pronounced in this region. The Monel prices experienced a mixed trend during the quarter, driven by a delicate balance between decreasing inventories and modest growth in select sectors.
The supply of Monel remained moderate, with no plant shutdowns reported during this period. However, the decline in steel import permits and reduced inventories of steel contributed to the overall supply dynamics in the Monel market. On the demand side, there was a moderate increase, particularly from the automotive and infrastructure sectors. The US government's efforts to reduce pollution and the growth of electric vehicles led to higher demand for Monel in the steel market.
However, uncertainties and limited visibility led to some reluctance among buyers to make purchases. Looking at the year-over-year comparison, the Monel prices in Q1 2024 showed a slight increase compared to the same quarter last year. Additionally, the prices in Q1 2024 were higher compared to the last quarter of 2023. It is important to note that the Monel pricing dynamics in the North America region are influenced by various factors, including supply and demand dynamics, import effects, global market trends, and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Asia-Pacific
In Q1 2024, the pricing dynamics of Monel in the APAC region exhibited a nuanced trend, influenced by multiple factors beyond the conventional top influences. While the overall market situation was stable, Japan stood out with pronounced price fluctuations. The Monel industry in Japan faced supply shortages due to automotive manufacturers' production suspensions, which impacted steel output, a crucial component of Monel alloy. Labor shortages at Nippon Steel further strained the industry. On the demand side, a surge in Monel demand was observed in Japan, driven by the collaboration between Kobe Steel and China Baowu Steel Group to produce lightweight aluminium panels for the growing electric vehicle industry. The joint venture's strategic focus on prioritizing Monel as a crucial material within the automotive industry. Due to the increased demand spurred by the innovative initiatives of the joint venture, manufacturers and suppliers specializing in nickel-copper alloys experienced significant growth opportunities due to the increased demand. This spike in demand highlighted Monel's significance in automotive applications and offered growth prospects for nickel-copper alloy suppliers. Despite the challenges in the supply chain, there were no reported plant shutdowns during the quarter.
Europe
In Q1 2024, Monel pricing dynamics in the Europe region were influenced by various factors beyond the conventional top three. The Germany experiences the overall increase in Monel prices in Q1. The spike in nickel prices in February had a substantial effect on the Monel supply chain; the European Commodity Exchange (LME) saw an increase of over 3.5%, while the Asian SHFE saw an increase of over 3.1%. Due to fluctuating mill outputs and rising domestic demand, the availability of Monel has decreased because of the nickel price increase, which is being attributed to new US sanctions against Russia. The production of Monel has been hampered by the consequent rise in nickel and freight costs, which has caused a spike in prices on the German spot market. Germany's building sector has grown significantly, which has increased demand for Monel. In addition, there has been a noticeable rise in the need for nickel, which is the main component of Monel, because of increased demand from the building industry. In addition, the price of copper has been steadily rising; in the first quarter, it increased by 13% over the previous quarter. Among the nonferrous metals that are traded the most, this increase produced the least volatile trading volume. As a result of aging blast furnaces, the EU is producing less crude steel, but the cost of stainless steel is still rising. The increased need for steel in the construction industry has led to a demand for nickel and Monel, making Monel a vital material in addressing the sector's constantly shifting needs. The European Commodity Exchange (LME), the Asian SHFE, and pertinent government estimates and statistics are the data sources used in this summary.
MEA
In Q1 2024, Monel pricing dynamics in the MEA region, particularly in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), were influenced by a range of factors beyond the conventional top three. The overall trend in Monel prices in the UAE spot market during this quarter increases, with slight fluctuations. The market situation in the UAE played a significant role in shaping the pricing dynamics, with demand and supply factors at play. The UAE experienced a shortage of steel resources, which directly impacted the availability and pricing of Monel. This shortage was primarily due to the global shipping crisis in the Red Sea, which caused delays and increased expenses, disrupting the steel supply chain and complicating Monel manufacturing. As a result, clients had to resort to alternate sourcing methods, further influencing Monel's availability and driving up prices. The surge in Monel demand was fuelled by the expanding infrastructure sector and the rise in the Industrial Production Index, highlighting its vital role in supplying raw materials for infrastructure projects. This situation underscored the significance of Monel while contributing to its price escalation in the market. It is important to note that no plant shutdowns were reported during this period. When comparing the pricing dynamics of Q1 2024 to the same quarter last year, Monel prices have seen a significant increase due to the supply constraints and increased demand.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the North American region, the Monel market in the fourth quarter of 2023 observed a significant price decline. Firstly, in October, Monel prices in the US remained high due to increased demand from the chemical and automotive sectors, coupled with a limited supply of materials like Steel Scraps and Nickel feedstock. Rising US bond yields and a strong ISM industrial index indicated robust economic development.
November saw a decline in Monel prices due to increased production rates and reduced consumption from downstream industries, with Outokumpu's expansion plans contributing to higher supply. Surpluses in feedstock persisted, and reduced production costs, driven by heightened coal production, led to a decrease in market prices. December witnessed a further decline in Monel prices due to increased inventory levels and decreased downstream demand. Despite challenges, the global Nickel mining industry experienced growth, driven by an increase in feedstock supply.
The Minnesota Copper-Nickel Mining project played a key role, while US Monel industries redirected investments to China for enhanced international competitiveness. Winter holidays, severe weather, and uncertainty about government policies and the electric vehicle sector contributed to subdued demand in the US spot market. The latest price for Alloy 400 Sheet DEL Florida in the USA at the end of the quarter was USD 59050/MT.
Asia-Pacific
In the APAC region, the Monel market experienced a challenging fourth quarter of 2023 (Oct-Dec), primarily impacted by factors such as increased supply of feedstock Nickel, and ongoing uncertainties in the global market. In October, Monel prices in the Japanese spot market declined due to subdued market sentiment stemming from decreased demand in the domestic Automotive and Chemical sectors. Despite stable material supply, the growth in local Automotive manufacturing industries was sustained by increased demand, especially for Hybrid and electric vehicles. In November, Monel prices decreased further, driven by increased production in major Japanese manufacturing industries and oversupply resulting from Daido Steel's strategic investments. Internationally, China re-examined anti-dumping measures against Japanese stainless-steel products, adding to market uncertainty. In December, Monel prices saw a decline influenced by reduced trading activity, weakened global demand, and excess supply in Japanese warehouses. Stainless Steel exports experienced a continuous downturn, worsened by disruptions in the Red Sea route due to Houthi rebel attacks. Challenges for Japan's steel industry intensified with declining demand in downstream automotive industries and disruptions in the industrial output, including Daihatsu's temporary factory closures. Overall, trade disruptions and reduced demand posed significant challenges for Japan's Monel market in the latter part of the year. The latest price for Alloy 400 Sheet Ex Osaka in Japan at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023 was USD 45533/MT.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Monel market in Europe experienced a challenging period, primarily influenced by reduced demand from downstream industries and an oversupply situation. In October 2023, Monel prices in the German spot market rose due to increased demand from the automotive and chemical sectors, coupled with reduced raw material supply. Production declines led to lower global and domestic inventory levels for steel scrap and Nickel pig iron. The EU Carbon Border Tax faced challenges, prompting steelmakers to advocate for an export ban on EU ferrous scrap. Concerns about ferrous scrap availability were expressed, and efforts to promote green Direct Reduced Iron production were halted. Despite a market slowdown, UK consumer-related sectors remained resilient. In November, Monel prices declined due to reduced demand amid oversupply, influenced by competitive global feedstock provision. Nornickel increased its global nickel surplus estimate, citing consistent production. The conclusion of 2023 saw decreased Monel prices, oversupply, reduced demand, and production pauses. German EV sales declined due to the withdrawal of subsidies, impacting the Monel sector. Traditional Monel faced decreasing demand, while green steel gained traction for its environmental benefits. The latest price of Monel in Germany at the end of the quarter was USD 45950/MT of Alloy 400 Ex Werdohl.
MEA
The Monel pricing landscape in the MEA region during the fourth quarter of 2023 showed a slight declining trend and was influenced by several key factors. In October, Monel spot market prices in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) experienced a decline due to reduced domestic demand and increased supply. This drop was attributed to lower import costs of Monel from the Asian market, driven by decreased local demand. The UAE extended the export ban on steel and stainless-steel scrap until December 2023, emphasizing the importance of waste in stainless-steel production. Metallurgical coke prices in India and China rose consistently, while South African prices for non-coking coal surged since June. The Monel market in the UAE was also influenced by factors such as disruptions at the Port of Newcastle due to a climate change protest and the expectation that wind power would surpass coal in electricity generation by 2026. In December, Monel prices in the UAE spot market remained stable, supported by ample supply despite robust demand from the construction and automotive sectors. Trade disruptions in the Red Sea route raised concerns, leading to reduced imports from Asian manufacturers. The COP28 meeting in December highlighted a growing interest in transitioning vehicles to electric and hybrid categories, with anticipated construction projects until 2025 expected to drive Monel demand in the UAE spot market. The price of Monel in the UAE at the end of the fourth quarter was USD 38335/MT for Alloy 400 Sheet CFR Jebel Ali.
For the Quarter Ending September 2023
North America
In Q3, the Monel market in the USA faced challenges, resulting in a rising price trend. Rising interest rates and a lack of job opportunities in the chemical industry drove stagnant demand. BASF, a major player, struggled with labor shortages, affecting production downstream. Nickel surplus in the US spot market added to the market's woes—federal interest rate hikes led to reduced Monel orders. Monel prices dipped in August due to global nickel supply increases. Indonesian mills boosted production, and Australian and Chinese companies planned nickel investments in the battery industry. Economic uncertainty and interest rate hikes weakened downstream chemical industry demand, with buyers anticipating further price drops and mills offering discounts to clear stockpiles. Despite these challenges, Monel prices ultimately rose in the USA, impacted by sluggish demand, increased nickel supply, and economic uncertainty, affecting sectors like chemicals and oil and gas. The implementation of government policies and measures to lower the lingering inflation rate backed the firm increase rate of Monel price in the US spot market.
Asia-Pacific
In Q3, Monel prices in Japan initially fell in July due to an oversupply of nickel driven by increased mining activity in South Africa and Australia. Major contracts with Australian companies and British firm Altilium exacerbated this oversupply. However, prices continued to decline as demand from the automotive and construction sectors declined, along with economic uncertainties and interest rate hikes. Midway through Q3, Monel prices rebounded as downstream inquiries increased. This resurgence was influenced by a slowdown in Japan's wholesale inflation, offering some relief to households and retailers grappling with rising raw material costs. While consumer inflation remained above the Bank of Japan's 2% target, the central bank aimed to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy until domestic demand rather than supply-driven factors drove inflation. Input costs, including high raw material prices, labor costs, and a weakened yen, saw significant inflation. Japanese manufacturers raised their selling prices at the slowest rate in two years, impacting employment as job creation slowed due to staff shortages and voluntary resignations. In August, average cost burdens rose significantly due to increased raw material, fuel, and electricity prices, leading to solid output price inflation.
Europe
In the third quarter of 2023 in Germany, Monel prices displayed a notable upward trajectory due to several influential factors. A surge in demand, primarily concentrated in northern regions, ignited bullish sentiment within the domestic market. Recent developments within the German spot market further reinforced this heightened demand. Notably, a significant agreement between Linde, a prominent European chemical company, and the Brazilian government to secure a substantial supply of renewable energy is poised to boost chemical manufacturing activities, consequently driving up the demand for Monel. Additionally, the Berling Gas Project, secured by OMV (Norge), increased Monel demand thanks to its corrosion-resistant properties, which are essential for harsh environmental conditions. Locally controlled stock releases garnered considerable attention from major market players, intensifying the Monel market in Germany. Downstream chemical industries placed substantial orders, bolstered by growing confidence in the market. External factors, including investigations by the European Commission into anti-dumping measures on stainless steel imports, also contributed to the price surge.
MEA
In the third quarter of the year in the UAE, there was a noticeable upward trend in Monel prices. This rise came after a modest increase in the latter part of the second quarter when local stainless steel mills held their prices steady despite reduced demand and increased competition from imports. Economic uncertainties in the United Arab Emirates led to concerns about a potential slowdown in the manufacturing sector. Customers became more cautious due to rising living costs and higher interest rates. As a result, attention shifted towards the services sector, which faced persistent inflationary pressures. Despite these economic uncertainties, domestic factory sales continued to decline, causing buyers to exercise caution. The newfound optimism led to higher procurement and job creation, although selling prices remained discounted. Additionally, there were significant regional developments, with Turkey and Saudi Arabia entering a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on critical minerals, technology, solar panels, and electric vehicles. Saudi Arabia's growing interest in renewable energy sources like hydrogen, wind, and solar power played a key role in solidifying this agreement.
For the Quarter Ending June 2023
North America
In the second quarter of 2023, Monel prices in the US market showed a downward trend despite the price increase in April and May. At the beginning of the second quarter, the price trend rises for several reasons, such as the reopening of the Chinese economy and stronger than expected industrial growth in Europe and the United States. These factors increased Monel's demand for upstream construction and structural equipment, along with a correction in the US dollar, which increased demand. Uncertainty in the global economy due to the Russian-Ukrainian war and interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve outweighed positive demand effects and limited price increases. Geopolitical headwinds affected the metals complex, leading to a volatile trading year and ending in negative returns. According to market participants, the current market dynamics in the United States are full of uncertainty due to the apparent slowdown in the European and American economies. On the other hand, in the second quarter, the price of Monel will begin to decrease, as US stainless steel mills continue to maintain their selling prices due to the slowdown in demand and increased competition from imports. Companies report that customers are increasingly reluctant to spend due to rising living costs, higher interest rates, growing concerns about the economic outlook and a shift in spending towards services. Ex-factory prices for premium alloys barely rose in June as discount reports increased, suggesting an almost complete collapse of inflationary pressures in the goods manufacturing sector.
Asia- Pacific
In the Japanese market, Monel prices rose in the second quarter of 2023 due to fluctuations in nickel raw materials and stable demand from the chemical industry. Japan's manufacturing environment reflected ongoing challenges and the need to monitor economic conditions and demand trends. Overall, inflationary pressures remained high, but input prices rose more slowly. Producers sought to protect profit margins by passing on higher costs to customers, leading to accelerated premium inflation. The price increase in May was due to the disruption of the supply chain against the background of stable secondary demand from the chemical industry. The prices of crude iron ore reported by traders and domestic ironworks differed. On the demand side, Monel's spot suppliers reduced their quotes to win deals amid limited demand in foreign markets and rising social shares. Market participants said the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy ultra-easy on Friday despite stronger-than-expected inflation, indicating it remains an outlier among global central banks and is focused on supporting a fragile economic recovery. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) held its first policy meeting under new president Kazuo Ueda in April and its second in June. There was no change in policy, suggesting that their brazen attitude will continue. Although the BoJ maintained its cautious stance on continued inflation and wage growth in Japan, macroeconomic indicators continue to show solid developments.
Europe
In the German market, Monel prices remained unchanged and stable during the second quarter of 2023. On the supply side, the balance between production capacity and market demand resulted in stable prices. On the demand side, small fluctuations in Monel prices point to relatively flat demand in key industries such as chemicals, aerospace and oil and gas. The steady demand for Monel products in these sectors has offset any price fluctuations. Meanwhile, Monel prices showed northward momentum in May, driven by volatility in the price of raw material nickel, as inquiries from the chemical industry's downstream industry increased. Key players say supply shortage is the main factor supporting the rise in commodity prices. Economic uncertainty has been cited as the reason for price fluctuations, which have led to greater cost efficiency for end users. European stainless-steel mills are believed to have operated at significantly reduced prices in the second quarter due to weak demand and low prices. The work is quiet in all countries, customers order only one after the other or not at all. Lower consumption forces factories to cut production to balance supply and demand. Market sentiment remains grim. In addition to reduced supply, the stabilization of stainless-steel scrap prices contributed to the convergence of stainless-steel prices to the bottom.
MEA
In the United Arab Emirates market, Monel prices showed a price increase in April, which was due to fluctuations in raw material prices against the background of increased inflationary pressure. According to market participants, Monel prices rose in April as a sign of even stronger growth in the non-oil economy, driven by rapid growth in new orders and easing inflationary pressures. Growing demand and rapid capacity improvements boosted confidence in future operations. The strong growth in new business underlined the growing confidence among companies responding to the economic outlook. In the second quarter of the second quarter, Monel prices showed an upward trend at the end of the second quarter, as downstream companies, such as chemical equipment manufacturers, increased their purchasing activity due to significant increases in workload and as part of efforts to replenish inventories. UAE traders are increasingly turning to the market leader for price consistency and stability. The ability of businesses to secure increasing volumes of new business remained unchanged in June, as new job growth accelerated to a four-year high. However, part of this growth has been projected based on discounts offered to customers, which may not be sustainable in the long term as input costs are rising. According to key players, the non-oil private sector remained on a strong footing mid-year and has good conditions for continued growth in the second half of 2023.
For the Quarter Ending March 2023
North America
The Monel market in the US experienced an upward price momentum in the first quarter of 2023 due to fluctuating raw material nickel costs and sturdy downstream demand from the automotive industry. However, weak demand caused input costs and output charges to rise at higher rates due to poor sales in domestic and export markets in January. Despite supplier delivery times having stabilized and supply chain improvements reducing input cost inflation, rising wage pressures and efforts to increase margins had caused average prices for goods, leaving the factory gate to rise sharply once more. In March, the industry's banking problem raised red flags and hinted at an economic recession, causing uncertainty in the market's future. Additionally, medium-sized banks had squeezed credit lines for steel customers, adding to the investment outlook's uncertainty. As a result, the prices of Alloy 400 Sheets for Ex Florida (USA) had settled at USD 74110/MT.
Asia Pacific
The Monel prices in the Chinese market showed a downward trend in Q1 2023 due to weak downstream demand, resulting in lower-than-expected spot transactions. The mainstream refined nickel enterprises worked in shifts to ensure normal production during the CNY holiday, which prevented a significant fall in Monel inventories in January. The price of raw material nickel had been decreasing since the beginning of the year, causing a 1.3% drop in the price of Monel in China. In February, higher supply and lower demand led to a slight increase in the social inventory of nickel's primary raw material, which helped keep nickel prices low. Monel prices fluctuated within a small range, and seller quotes remained essentially unchanged compared to mill purchase prices. The market experienced a downturn in March, primarily due to the decreasing price of raw materials, which indirectly pushed down prices. Although manufacturers cut production for maintenance, the market remained under high inventory, making it challenging to recover in the short term. Consequently, Alloy 400 sheet prices for Ex Shanghai (China) settled at USD 31330/MT.
Europe
During Q1 2023, the European Monel market experienced mixed sentiment due to fluctuating raw material costs and downstream inquiries from the aerospace and chemical processing industries. The manganese and silicon alloy markets in Europe remained stable at the beginning of the year with no significant price fluctuations due to seasonal demand decreases and energy market stabilization. However, a combination of global market factors caused a significant price increase in the noble ferroalloys segment, particularly molybdenum, and vanadium. The Monel market was affected by lower energy costs, rising raw material prices, and increased demand, resulting in significant price increases for chrome ore and ferrochrome. Several European plants announced restarting furnaces in February, leading to increased raw material consumption. Suppliers attempted to raise alloy prices, but limited demand and falling raw material nickel prevented significant price gains. In March, downstream demand slightly increased, but spot nickel premiums fell amid rising futures prices. Consequently, Alloy 400 prices for Ex Werdohl (Germany) settled at USD 42951/MT.
For the Quarter Ending December 2022
North America
Towards the closure of the final quarter of 2022, the Monel prices edged in the downward direction in the US market owing to the stable supply-demand outlook. Following the March short squeeze and temporary suspension of the LME nickel trade, many market participants exited or reduced their exposure, resulting in a liquidity crisis and price swings in the three-month contract that were frequently unrelated to fundamentals. Market participants claim that there was inflation and that a recession was possible. As a result, the US Federal Reserve increased borrowing costs to cool the economy and relieve price pressures. The consumer prepares for annual contracting and prefers not to accept excessively inflated raw material prices in mid-Q4. In the alloy segment's weak position, alloy prices fell from their previous indicative levels in early December to current market levels. Alloy prices were reported to be stable by the end of December. Alloy buyers reported staying on the sidelines in response to softer market conditions and were encouraged by shorter steel mill lead times as they worked down well-stocked inventories and controlled costs. As a result, alloy 400 sheet prices for Ex Florida (USA) settled in December at USD 72450/MT.
Asia Pacific
In the final quarter of 2022, the Monel prices in the Chinese market showed stagnancy because of the limited downstream demand. The demand for Monel increased in mid-Q4 as a result of frequent positive developments in the new energy industry chain. The profit margin on stainless steel increased, causing the steel plant to maintain a high production schedule. Furthermore, the number of infections reached an all-time high. Lockdowns in the major cities choked domestic consumption, disrupted supply chains, and even ignited street protests in many cities. Furthermore, supply and demand for nickel ore remained low, but there was a strong willingness to support the mine's price, which was expected to be unsustainable due to weak fundamentals. The volatile molybdenum prices in the international market had influenced the sentiment of the domestic Monel market. Some mining companies and traders actively sold, easing the supply of raw materials. Despite this, most mining companies were holding back cargo in preparation for price increases. As a result, Ex Shanghai Alloy 400 sheet prices settled at USD 33040/MT.
Europe
In the European market, the Monel prices edged in the upward direction owing to the fluctuating raw material Nickel costs and limited inventory availability. According to market participants, nickel prices were trading sideways as volumes fell to record lows in October. Inventory at service centers, brokers, and master distributors remained plentiful. According to the LME, no Russian producers would be penalized. The London Metal Exchange's low liquidity had increased volatility since the last nickel short squeeze. According to manufacturers of manganese and silicon alloys, ferrochrome prices in the European market were mostly down in December due to seasonal decreases in business activity. In contrast, the ferroalloys segment saw a price increase due to speculative trading company actions and a similar trend in China. The supply of raw materials for molybdenum ingots was insufficient, and demand in China was extremely high, especially in December. Consumers in Europe required materials, and it was difficult for them to find these prices after the Christmas holiday. Thus, the price of Alloy 400 for Ex Werdohl was settled at USD 42825/MT.
For The Quarter Ending September 2022
North America
In the third quarter of 2022, the Monel market witnessed an episodic price trend in the US due to the fluctuating raw material costs. Monel prices increased slightly in July due to inflationary concerns, while broader economic conditions dampened optimism. In July, inflationary pressures remained historically high but eased further. Firms reported a drop in output, attributed to relatively low demand, worsening financial conditions, and higher prices. Cost pressures remained high, however, due to supply chain issues, raw material shortages, and skyrocketing prices for key inputs like energy. Due to low inquiries, Monel prices have been falling since mid-quarter. Maintenance shutdowns, according to manufacturers, are unlikely to be enough to offset weak demand, while falling import prices compensated for lower domestic supply. The outages had little effect on the supply-demand balance, mainly because service center inventories remained stable. As a ripple effect, the Alloy 400 Sheet prices for FOB Miami (USA) settled at USD 77320/MT.
Asia Pacific
Monel prices fell precipitously in the Asian market during the third quarter of 2022. As seaborne buyers wanted the material at lower prices, Chinese producers were uninterested in export inquiries. Because of the disparity between bids and offers, producers had turned to domestic markets. Due to high temperatures and lower rainfall in Sichuan mid-August, hydropower generation output was insufficient to meet rising local electricity consumption. Following the rationing of power by the Sichuan Power Grid, all Monel producers in Sichuan were closed to ensure resident power consumption. The increased inventory experienced a specific drop in Q3 due to a decrease in downstream production, but overall demand remains lower than expected. While new orders dropped, falling work backlogs and rising finished goods stocks suggested a possible build-up of excess capacity at factories. Prices thus remained northbound in the third quarter of 2022, with market participants taking a wait-and-see approach, waiting for the price slide to stabilize before returning to the market. As a ripple effect, the Alloy 400 sheet prices for Ex Shanghai (China) settled at USD 32950/MT.
Europe
In the European market, Monel prices rose in the third quarter due to rising raw material costs and rising recessionary fears. Soaring electricity prices pressurized European producers in a difficult position, with cost and selling price curves steadily converging. The limited demand inquiries were quoted overseas, according to European buyers. The primary reason for this was seasonal drop-in consumer activity. Carbon steel production was being reduced due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and rising production costs. Domestic transactions, on the other hand, were restricted. Rising production costs, exacerbated by an unprecedented rise in electricity prices in the EU, began to pressure producers, particularly in Germany. German steel producers and traders felt soaring Monel prices in August due to a lack of supply as production levels fell. Furthermore, producers noted that ongoing high electricity and gas costs would immediately impact Monel's costs. Thus, Alloy 400 prices for FOB Hamburg (Germany) settled at USD 40941/MT.
For the Quarter Ending June 2022
North America
During the second quarter of 2022, Alloy-400 prices increased by nearly 14.6 percent in the US market due to raw material shortages, a constrained supply chain, and an increase in domestic and international demand amid ongoing geopolitical circumstances, price hikes, and supplier delivery delays. Higher freight costs and fewer import options caused Alloy-400 prices to vary widely across regions. However, some Midwest plants saw stock availability in late May, while others waited until June. Meanwhile, the rate of cost inflation has accelerated, with firms passing on higher expenses to buyers in the form of production charges, adding to cost pressures. Higher operating costs and increases in metals, energy, fuel, and transportation have exacerbated price increases during the Ukraine war and China's COVID-19 lockdowns.
Asia Pacific
The prices of Monel in the Chinese market witnessed an increasing trend during the second quarter of 2022 due to soaring prices of raw materials and currency depreciation amidst the ongoing hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. According to Chinese domestic players, raw material supply shortages and China's decarbonization policy caused a structural shift in the market dynamics of Alloy 400. According to participants, the Yuan exchange rate has dropped precipitously since April 2022, and the Yuan's rapid depreciation is due to three significant factors: Lockdowns in China, a rise in the US dollar index as a result of Fed interest rate hikes, have resulted in a substantial drop in exports. Although the Yuan is under severe depreciation pressure, there will most likely be a tipping point when China's manufacturing industry returns to normal. The Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy and the resumption of overseas manufacturing have exacerbated the decline in exports.
Europe
In the European market, the Alloy 400 experienced soaring market sentiments in the second quarter of 20222, primarily due to increased raw material and energy prices and economic losses caused by the ongoing disputes between Russia and Ukraine. The market quotations heralded a supply deficit that overshadowed the demand outlook. On the other hand, domestic German steel manufacturers were adjusting to rising energy prices and supply issues caused by transportation shutdowns caused by high fuel costs. According to market participants, resurgent demand, precautionary stockpiles, and supply chain bottlenecks have exacerbated raw material shortages and sent prices skyrocketing. Furthermore, the US Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, and European bank interest rates are rising, making product availability in the German market even more difficult. The stakes of continued disruption are high, but problems will take time to resolve, and industries are being hit unevenly. German market participants heard of limited transactions and chose to wait and see, avoiding restocking at high costs.
For the Quarter Ending March 2022
Asia
During the first quarter of 2022, Alloy 400 prices in the Asian market skyrocketed, owing primarily to rising crude oil, energy, and raw material prices, particularly nickel, carbon, Aluminium, and iron ore, amidst ongoing hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. Due to local community protests, the uncertain disruption in Peruvian mining primarily supports the soaring raw material prices. According to Chinese domestic players, two factors causing a structural change in the market dynamics of Alloy 400 are the supply shortage of raw materials and the decarbonization policy in China. Also, the imposition of strict COVID-19 restrictions in China hampered onloading and offloading activities and increased port traffic. The constraints in Shanghai and other Chinese cities are starting to bubble through global supply chains, with some factories being forced to close and delays rising at ports. As a ripple effect, the prices of Alloy 400 for EX-Shanghai settled at USD 17425 per tonne.
Europe
In the first quarter of 2022, the Monel prices in Europe witnessed an inclining trend amidst several factors, primarily COVID-19 disruptions, stretched global supply chains, rising inflationary pressures, and elevated geopolitical tensions. The Russia-Ukraine combat and its aftermath, mainly on raw material and logistics, impacted supply and demand-side activities and compelled market participants to adopt a wait-and-watch policy for further price hikes. The imbalance between raw materials demand and supply outlook significantly contributed to a further rise in manufacturers' purchasing costs during Q1 of 2022. Market participants claim that the rising risk of procurement, limitations in financial support, and port bottleneck are among the significant factors that have driven the sentiments of Monel worldwide.
MEA
In the UAE, Alloy 400 witnessed an increasing trend in Q1 of 2022 due to the extreme volatility in raw materials, especially nickel, iron ore, and copper prices, coupled with the broadened demand-supply gap. Since the beginning of this quarter, the Alloy 400 prices have showcased an inclining trajectory. The Russia-Ukraine conflict and its ramifications and subsequent sanctions on Russian raw materials have hampered all non-essential cargo reserves to and from Russia until more information is available. As a result, nickel buyers in those markets have been forced to avoid Russian raw materials and metals, resulting in a scramble for alternative sources of supply. As a result of growing raw material costs, the market dynamics for Alloy 400 in the UAE have shifted to a bullish trend. As a ripple effect, the prices of Alloy 400 for Ex Dubai were assessed at USD 33313/MT.
