For the Quarter Ending September 2024
North America
The Monel market in North America during Q3 2024 experienced a significant decline in prices, with the USA witnessing the most substantial price changes. This downward trend can be attributed to various factors such as excess supply, weak demand from key industries like construction and manufacturing, and fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly nickel and copper.
The demand for Monel in the U.S. market is under pressure from various sectors experiencing a slowdown. With declines in manufacturing output and new orders, particularly in industries that heavily rely on Monel, there is a general sentiment of caution among buyers. The anticipated resurgence in demand is thwarted by ongoing political uncertainty and wavering consumer confidence.
The market faced challenges due to sluggish economic growth, reduced automotive sales, and uncertainties in global trade dynamics. Additionally, disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal impacted export rates, further adding to pricing pressures. Throughout the quarter, prices showed a consistent decreasing sentiment, with a notable decline of 8% from the previous quarter and a decline of 5% between the first and second half of Q3. The quarter concluded with Monel prices at USD 42360/MT for Alloy 400 Sheet DEL Florida in the USA, reflecting the overall negative pricing environment in the region.
Asia-Pacific
In the third quarter of 2024, the APAC region witnessed a notable decline in Monel pricing, driven by several key factors. Fluctuations in raw material costs, particularly copper and nickel, played a significant role in influencing market prices. The market experienced challenges due to rising imports, excess supply, and weakened demand across various industries. Additionally, global economic uncertainties, sluggish industrial activities, and reduced export opportunities further contributed to the downward trend in Monel prices.
Within Japan, the market saw the most significant price changes, with a 7% decrease from the previous quarter. The quarter-ending price for Alloy 400 Sheet Ex Osaka in Japan stood at USD 40601/MT. The market exhibited a negative sentiment throughout the quarter, with a stable to bearish outlook. Overall trends indicated a seasonally slow recovery, impacted by lower demand from the automotive sector and disruptions in the economy. Despite some fluctuations, the pricing environment remained predominantly negative, reflecting the challenging market conditions for Monel in Q3 2024.
Europe
In Q3 2024, the Monel pricing landscape in Europe witnessed a significant downturn, with Germany experiencing the most pronounced price changes. The overall market was influenced by a multitude of factors contributing to the decreasing prices. The persistent decline in demand from key sectors such as aerospace, construction, and automotive industries played a pivotal role in driving prices downward.
Global economic uncertainties further exacerbated the situation, leading customers to postpone large purchases, thus impacting the demand-supply dynamics of Monel. Political uncertainty further exacerbates this fragile demand environment, making manufacturers cautious in their strategies. Although there is a slight improvement in business confidence linked to potential opportunities from upcoming elections, demand remains subdued. Manufacturers are focusing on stabilizing operations amid these challenges, adjusting inventory levels and purchasing activities to adapt to the changing market conditions.
Moreover, disruptions in the supply chain, highlighted by port congestion and reduced shipping capacities, added pressure on prices. In Germany specifically, the quarter saw a 10% decrease from the previous quarter, with a notable 3% decline in prices between the first and second half of the quarter. The quarter concluded with the price of Alloy 400 Ex Werdohl standing at USD 37902/MT, indicating a challenging pricing environment marked by consistent decreases.
MEA
In Q3 2024, the Monel pricing landscape in the MEA region experienced a notable decline, with the United Arab Emirates showcasing the most significant price changes. Several factors contributed to this downward trend. In general, the market was influenced by a combination of ample supply levels, subdued demand dynamics, and ongoing price fluctuations in raw materials such as nickel. These elements collectively exerted downward pressure on Monel prices, creating a challenging environment for market participants.
Specifically focusing on the United Arab Emirates, the Monel market witnessed a continuous decrease in prices throughout the quarter. The overall trend in pricing exhibited a negative sentiment, with prices experiencing a downward trajectory. Comparing Q3 2024 to the same quarter last year, prices recorded a substantial decrease, emphasizing the challenging conditions faced by the market. Furthermore, the quarter saw a notable decline of 7% from the previous quarter, highlighting the persistent downward pressure on prices. As the quarter ended, the latest price for Alloy 400 Sheet CFR Jebel Ali in the United Arab Emirates stood at USD 40628/MT, underscoring the prevailing downward trend in Monel pricing for the region.
For the Quarter Ending June 2024
North America
In Q2 2024, the North American Monel market experienced a notable decline in prices, driven predominantly by substantial shifts in both supply and demand dynamics. This quarter, Monel pricing faced significant downward pressure due to elevated inventory levels and fluctuating raw material costs, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and operational disruptions in key raw material-producing regions. Shipping costs surged because of extended transit times and increased spot rates for sea freight, adding to the overall market volatility. Despite steady production levels, the market struggled with an oversupply, leading to a bearish market sentiment.
Focusing on the USA, the region saw the most pronounced price changes. A combination of rising inventory levels, lower-than-expected demand from key industrial sectors, and persistent supply chain bottlenecks were key factors influencing the pricing landscape. Seasonal trends and changing consumer preferences in the automotive industry added to the situation, leading to a continuous decrease in Monel prices. The general price trend showed a consistent decline, with a decrease from the previous quarter and an additional drop in the second half of the quarter.
The latest quarter-ending price stood at USD 46080/MT of Alloy 400 Sheet DEL Florida, underscoring a negative pricing environment throughout Q2 2024. Disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal were notable, further affecting market stability. This quarter's market conditions were overwhelmingly negative, reflecting the ongoing challenges in balancing supply and demand in the Monel sector.
Asia-Pacific
In Q2 2024, the Monel market in the APAC region experienced a declining trend, influenced predominantly by global supply chain disruptions and fluctuating demand dynamics. The quarter saw several critical factors impacting Monel prices, including geopolitical tensions, changes in nickel mining operations, and volatile shipping costs. Decreased nickel production in key regions and the suspension of operations at notable plants like Eramet SA in New Caledonia contributed significantly to the constrained supply, exacerbating the pricing environment.
Focusing on Japan, which observed the most significant price changes, the Monel market has been notably bearish. The overall trend has been characterized by a steady decline in prices, driven by elevated inventory levels and subdued demand, particularly within the automotive sector. Seasonal factors further amplified the downturn, with a pronounced dip in market activity correlating strongly with the end of fiscal year adjustments. Compared to the same quarter last year, the market has weakened considerably, underscoring the ongoing economic challenges.
As the quarter concluded, the price of Alloy 400 Sheet Ex Osaka in Japan settled at USD 44409/MT, reflecting a persistently negative pricing environment. The decrease underscores the broader market struggles and diminishing momentum in the region's Monel market. Overall, Q2 2024 has been marked by a negative pricing sentiment, highlighting the critical need for strategic responses to stabilize the market.
Europe
In Q2 2024, Monel pricing in Europe experienced a notable downturn, primarily influenced by a confluence of factors. The quarter was marked by subdued demand across various industries, compounded by ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. The construction sector, a significant driver of Monel consumption, showed a marked decline in activity and new orders due to high costs and economic uncertainty. The automotive industry also saw a downturn in new registrations, further dampening demand for Monel. These industry-specific challenges were exacerbated by rising inventory levels and a surplus of refined nickel, leading to an overall bearish market sentiment.
Germany experienced the most significant price changes within the Europe region. The market exhibited a clear downward trend, influenced by the interplay of seasonality and structural issues within key consuming sectors. The connection between decreased construction activity and challenges in the automotive industry was apparent, leading to a continuous decrease in Monel prices. Prices dropped compared to the previous quarter, with a more significant decline seen between the first and second half of the quarter, highlighting the unfavourable pricing environment.
Despite some industry stabilization efforts, the overall sentiment remained negative. The quarter concluded with Monel Alloy 400 priced at USD 40172/MT Ex Werdohl in Germany, reflecting the cumulative impact of these adverse factors. The market's trajectory highlighted the ongoing challenges and underscored a need for strategic adjustments to navigate the persistent downward pressures.
MEA
In Q2 2024, the Monel market in the MEA region exhibited a notable decline in prices, influenced predominantly by geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. The quarter was marked by significant factors such as sanctions on Russian raw materials, soaring nickel prices due to shortages from key nickel-producing regions including Brazil and New Caledonia, and increased shipping expenses post the Red Sea crisis. These elements compounded to create a challenging environment for Monel manufacturers, further exacerbated by operational issues in nickel production facilities across the South Pacific.
Focusing on the United Arab Emirates, which experienced the most significant price fluctuations, the Monel market saw a pronounced downward trend. Seasonal demand shifts and resource management challenges, driven by rapid tender processes in the construction sector, added to the market's volatility. When comparing with the previous quarter, where prices decreased, the pricing environment in the second quarter displayed a persistent negative outlook. The first half of Q2 experienced a reduction in prices compared to the latter half, indicating a continuous decline.
The quarter concluded with the price of Alloy 400 Sheet CFR Jebel Ali at USD 43753/MT, highlighting a pervasive bearish market sentiment. Despite this, the UAE's market maintained an optimistic outlook for future infrastructure projects, albeit under pressure from rising input costs and logistical challenges. No specific plant shutdowns were recorded during this quarter, reinforcing the complexity of market dynamics influenced more by external factors than internal production halts. Overall, the Q2 pricing environment for Monel was decidedly negative, driven by geopolitical and logistical perturbations.
For the Quarter Ending March 2024
North America
In Q1 2024, the Monel pricing dynamics in the North America region saw a nuanced examination beyond the conventional top influences. Overall, the market situation in the USA played a significant role in the pricing trends, with fluctuations being most pronounced in this region. The Monel prices experienced a mixed trend during the quarter, driven by a delicate balance between decreasing inventories and modest growth in select sectors.
The supply of Monel remained moderate, with no plant shutdowns reported during this period. However, the decline in steel import permits and reduced inventories of steel contributed to the overall supply dynamics in the Monel market. On the demand side, there was a moderate increase, particularly from the automotive and infrastructure sectors. The US government's efforts to reduce pollution and the growth of electric vehicles led to higher demand for Monel in the steel market.
However, uncertainties and limited visibility led to some reluctance among buyers to make purchases. Looking at the year-over-year comparison, the Monel prices in Q1 2024 showed a slight increase compared to the same quarter last year. Additionally, the prices in Q1 2024 were higher compared to the last quarter of 2023. It is important to note that the Monel pricing dynamics in the North America region are influenced by various factors, including supply and demand dynamics, import effects, global market trends, and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Asia-Pacific
In Q1 2024, the pricing dynamics of Monel in the APAC region exhibited a nuanced trend, influenced by multiple factors beyond the conventional top influences. While the overall market situation was stable, Japan stood out with pronounced price fluctuations. The Monel industry in Japan faced supply shortages due to automotive manufacturers' production suspensions, which impacted steel output, a crucial component of Monel alloy. Labor shortages at Nippon Steel further strained the industry. On the demand side, a surge in Monel demand was observed in Japan, driven by the collaboration between Kobe Steel and China Baowu Steel Group to produce lightweight aluminium panels for the growing electric vehicle industry. The joint venture's strategic focus on prioritizing Monel as a crucial material within the automotive industry. Due to the increased demand spurred by the innovative initiatives of the joint venture, manufacturers and suppliers specializing in nickel-copper alloys experienced significant growth opportunities due to the increased demand. This spike in demand highlighted Monel's significance in automotive applications and offered growth prospects for nickel-copper alloy suppliers. Despite the challenges in the supply chain, there were no reported plant shutdowns during the quarter.
Europe
In Q1 2024, Monel pricing dynamics in the Europe region were influenced by various factors beyond the conventional top three. The Germany experiences the overall increase in Monel prices in Q1. The spike in nickel prices in February had a substantial effect on the Monel supply chain; the European Commodity Exchange (LME) saw an increase of over 3.5%, while the Asian SHFE saw an increase of over 3.1%. Due to fluctuating mill outputs and rising domestic demand, the availability of Monel has decreased because of the nickel price increase, which is being attributed to new US sanctions against Russia. The production of Monel has been hampered by the consequent rise in nickel and freight costs, which has caused a spike in prices on the German spot market. Germany's building sector has grown significantly, which has increased demand for Monel. In addition, there has been a noticeable rise in the need for nickel, which is the main component of Monel, because of increased demand from the building industry. In addition, the price of copper has been steadily rising; in the first quarter, it increased by 13% over the previous quarter. Among the nonferrous metals that are traded the most, this increase produced the least volatile trading volume. As a result of aging blast furnaces, the EU is producing less crude steel, but the cost of stainless steel is still rising. The increased need for steel in the construction industry has led to a demand for nickel and Monel, making Monel a vital material in addressing the sector's constantly shifting needs. The European Commodity Exchange (LME), the Asian SHFE, and pertinent government estimates and statistics are the data sources used in this summary.
MEA
In Q1 2024, Monel pricing dynamics in the MEA region, particularly in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), were influenced by a range of factors beyond the conventional top three. The overall trend in Monel prices in the UAE spot market during this quarter increases, with slight fluctuations. The market situation in the UAE played a significant role in shaping the pricing dynamics, with demand and supply factors at play. The UAE experienced a shortage of steel resources, which directly impacted the availability and pricing of Monel. This shortage was primarily due to the global shipping crisis in the Red Sea, which caused delays and increased expenses, disrupting the steel supply chain and complicating Monel manufacturing. As a result, clients had to resort to alternate sourcing methods, further influencing Monel's availability and driving up prices. The surge in Monel demand was fuelled by the expanding infrastructure sector and the rise in the Industrial Production Index, highlighting its vital role in supplying raw materials for infrastructure projects. This situation underscored the significance of Monel while contributing to its price escalation in the market. It is important to note that no plant shutdowns were reported during this period. When comparing the pricing dynamics of Q1 2024 to the same quarter last year, Monel prices have seen a significant increase due to the supply constraints and increased demand.
For the Quarter Ending December 2023
North America
In the North American region, the Monel market in the fourth quarter of 2023 observed a significant price decline. Firstly, in October, Monel prices in the US remained high due to increased demand from the chemical and automotive sectors, coupled with a limited supply of materials like Steel Scraps and Nickel feedstock. Rising US bond yields and a strong ISM industrial index indicated robust economic development.
November saw a decline in Monel prices due to increased production rates and reduced consumption from downstream industries, with Outokumpu's expansion plans contributing to higher supply. Surpluses in feedstock persisted, and reduced production costs, driven by heightened coal production, led to a decrease in market prices. December witnessed a further decline in Monel prices due to increased inventory levels and decreased downstream demand. Despite challenges, the global Nickel mining industry experienced growth, driven by an increase in feedstock supply.
The Minnesota Copper-Nickel Mining project played a key role, while US Monel industries redirected investments to China for enhanced international competitiveness. Winter holidays, severe weather, and uncertainty about government policies and the electric vehicle sector contributed to subdued demand in the US spot market. The latest price for Alloy 400 Sheet DEL Florida in the USA at the end of the quarter was USD 59050/MT.
Asia-Pacific
In the APAC region, the Monel market experienced a challenging fourth quarter of 2023 (Oct-Dec), primarily impacted by factors such as increased supply of feedstock Nickel, and ongoing uncertainties in the global market. In October, Monel prices in the Japanese spot market declined due to subdued market sentiment stemming from decreased demand in the domestic Automotive and Chemical sectors. Despite stable material supply, the growth in local Automotive manufacturing industries was sustained by increased demand, especially for Hybrid and electric vehicles. In November, Monel prices decreased further, driven by increased production in major Japanese manufacturing industries and oversupply resulting from Daido Steel's strategic investments. Internationally, China re-examined anti-dumping measures against Japanese stainless-steel products, adding to market uncertainty. In December, Monel prices saw a decline influenced by reduced trading activity, weakened global demand, and excess supply in Japanese warehouses. Stainless Steel exports experienced a continuous downturn, worsened by disruptions in the Red Sea route due to Houthi rebel attacks. Challenges for Japan's steel industry intensified with declining demand in downstream automotive industries and disruptions in the industrial output, including Daihatsu's temporary factory closures. Overall, trade disruptions and reduced demand posed significant challenges for Japan's Monel market in the latter part of the year. The latest price for Alloy 400 Sheet Ex Osaka in Japan at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023 was USD 45533/MT.
Europe
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Monel market in Europe experienced a challenging period, primarily influenced by reduced demand from downstream industries and an oversupply situation. In October 2023, Monel prices in the German spot market rose due to increased demand from the automotive and chemical sectors, coupled with reduced raw material supply. Production declines led to lower global and domestic inventory levels for steel scrap and Nickel pig iron. The EU Carbon Border Tax faced challenges, prompting steelmakers to advocate for an export ban on EU ferrous scrap. Concerns about ferrous scrap availability were expressed, and efforts to promote green Direct Reduced Iron production were halted. Despite a market slowdown, UK consumer-related sectors remained resilient. In November, Monel prices declined due to reduced demand amid oversupply, influenced by competitive global feedstock provision. Nornickel increased its global nickel surplus estimate, citing consistent production. The conclusion of 2023 saw decreased Monel prices, oversupply, reduced demand, and production pauses. German EV sales declined due to the withdrawal of subsidies, impacting the Monel sector. Traditional Monel faced decreasing demand, while green steel gained traction for its environmental benefits. The latest price of Monel in Germany at the end of the quarter was USD 45950/MT of Alloy 400 Ex Werdohl.
MEA
The Monel pricing landscape in the MEA region during the fourth quarter of 2023 showed a slight declining trend and was influenced by several key factors. In October, Monel spot market prices in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) experienced a decline due to reduced domestic demand and increased supply. This drop was attributed to lower import costs of Monel from the Asian market, driven by decreased local demand. The UAE extended the export ban on steel and stainless-steel scrap until December 2023, emphasizing the importance of waste in stainless-steel production. Metallurgical coke prices in India and China rose consistently, while South African prices for non-coking coal surged since June. The Monel market in the UAE was also influenced by factors such as disruptions at the Port of Newcastle due to a climate change protest and the expectation that wind power would surpass coal in electricity generation by 2026. In December, Monel prices in the UAE spot market remained stable, supported by ample supply despite robust demand from the construction and automotive sectors. Trade disruptions in the Red Sea route raised concerns, leading to reduced imports from Asian manufacturers. The COP28 meeting in December highlighted a growing interest in transitioning vehicles to electric and hybrid categories, with anticipated construction projects until 2025 expected to drive Monel demand in the UAE spot market. The price of Monel in the UAE at the end of the fourth quarter was USD 38335/MT for Alloy 400 Sheet CFR Jebel Ali.
